Thursday, June 30, 2011

All Eyes are Focused on the Digital Ecosystem Conflict

Incumbent broadband service providers everywhere don't fear each other as competitors -- but there's two industry outsiders that they observe very closely. Google and Apple have a significant competitive advantage in the battle to engage the connected consumer.

Why? They've already attracted an army of independent collaborators.

Having moved beyond a single product category focus, these new media app competitors operate digital ecosystems where devices, software, services, and creative content -- from hundreds of third-party companies -- combine to create consumer value far greater than is possible from any single product, or company.

Currently, over 40 million U.S. broadband households own and operate an Apple device. Google's fast growing ecosystem, based on the Android OS, is expected to double in size over the next five years.

"Not long ago devices were independent of services and video content; however, those days are long gone," says Keith Nissen, Research Director at In-Stat.

Today, nearly all consumer electronics (CE) devices are becoming web-enabled, linking them to online applications, services, and vast libraries of digital content.

The success of Apple has highlighted the inherent advantages of a comprehensive digital ecosystem. Today, the largest digital media giants such as Microsoft, Disney, and Sony, have to craft their own digital ecosystem strategy to selectively compete and sometimes complement those of competitors.

At the same time, more narrowly focused device manufacturers, service operators, and online portals need to navigate and position their products in the competitive landscape among the dominant digital ecosystems.

In-Stat's latest market study findings include:

- The Apple ecosystem in the U.S. totaled 137 million installed devices in 2010.

- The Netflix online video service is currently supported on over 250 CE devices.

- In 2010, Facebook had nearly 69 million frequent (at least once/week) users in the U.S. market.

- Amazon controls approximately 60 percent of the U.S. e-reader market.

Wednesday, June 29, 2011

More than 120 Million VoIP Subscribers Worldwide

Voice over IP (VoIP) now has over 120 million subscribers worldwide, and its growth looks set to accelerate as predictions indicate a $40 billion annual VoIP market by 2015, according to the latest market study by Point Topic.

Point Topic's data revealed a global growth in VoIP of 12.6 percent during 2010 and shows that there is plenty of headroom left for VoIP around the world.

"The growth of VoIP has been bumpy but shows signs of acceleration," said John Bosnell, senior analyst at Point Topic. "VoIP has all the hallmarks of a classic substitution commodity."

Referring to the above, for example, consumers are switching from the standard telephone system to an end-to-end IP service that provides voice services at a very attractive cost and adds other usage possibilities.

"France has been something of a test-bed for VoIP. Driven by an active supplier base that has made VoIP available to a large percentage of the population over the last decade, the providers have been rewarded with significant adoption," added Bosnell.

The result has been a rapid shift. In France by 2010, over 50 percent of telephony traffic originating on fixed networks was started on a VoIP phone.

The whole broadband market are potential VoIP customers, and there is good evidence that consumers see the service as a superior substitute for traditional PSTN calls.

"We expect there to be over three quarters of a billion fixed line broadband subscribers by the end of 2015, in theory all of them are targets for VoIP services," said Bosnell.

Given a number of assumptions, relatively consistent ARPU, regulatory easement and a cautious set of projections, Point Topic expect the global fixed line VoIP market to be generating at least $40 billion a year in five years time.

Their analysis on VoIP has so far focused on fixed line services, however Internet telephony -- where services such as Skype are active -- is a more mysterious market.

It is highly fragmented and generally served by companies who don't or won't report regular statistics and revenues. However Skype, the market leader, has had considerable publicity recently and does report some numbers.

"From these we estimate that there are more internet telephony than VoIP users, with Skype alone accounting for almost 150 million regular callers," said Bosnell.

However revenue generated is much lower. At the end of 2010 it had around 9 million paying users generating $8 a month on average.

"If Skype continues to grow as it has been, and manages to keep its ARPU at the current level, then it will be generating in the region of $2 billion a year by the start of 2016." concluded Bosnell.

Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Latin America is the Rising Star of Mobile Broadband

Latin America outperformed other regions of the world in mobile revenue growth for the period between the first quarter of 2010 to 1Q 2011, according to the latest market study by ABI Research.

In terms of total aggregate service revenue, Latin America grew at 17 percent -- while in comparison North America achieved just 8.9 percent growth.

The primary ingredient in the region's revenue upside is largely attributable to increased mobile phone service subscriptions and average revenue per users (ARPU).

Latin America witnessed an 11.9 percent increase in mobile service subscribers while attaining a 5.9 percent increase in ARPU -- holding 2nd in position behind Eastern Europe, for the same period.

Most region's ARPU declined while North America and Western Europe only had meager gains.

"Contrary to popular belief, Latin America is the rising star of the telecom market" says ABI research associate Lim Shiyang. "With increasing affluence in South America, subscribers are becoming willing to pay more for better value added services."

Meanwhile, revenues from mobile broadband services have become the new engines of growth for telecommunications operators. While the global average growth rate for data service revenues during the period 1Q 2010 to 1Q 2011 increased by 20.3 percent, Latin America took the lead with a 40.3 percent increase.

The increased data consumption is driven by increased smartphone adoption as can be seen from the amazing 153 percent increase in smartphone shipments in 2010.

"The high growth rates attained through the widespread adoption of mobility into the lifestyles of consumers in Latin America show that people are hungry for these types of mobile services and are willing to spend." says ABI mobile services practice director Neil Strother.

Monday, June 27, 2011

How Content Discovery Engines will Benefit Advertisers

Web-enabled devices have become a key growth segment for the global consumer electronics industry. The smart devices, when connected to the Internet, create opportunities for advertisers to influence people while they are actively searching for visual entertainment content or other information.

According to the latest market study by In-Stat, the value of this ad-supported content discovery will reach $2.4 billion by 2015.

"When consumers are navigating for content, advertising is not seen as an interruption. In fact, it might help consumers find what they're looking for," says Gerry Kaufhold, research director at In-Stat.

Of course, the typical advertising creative process will need to be totally re-imagined -- in order to attain this degree of value or benefit in the eyes of consumers.

With the rise of mobile Internet services, the proliferation of smartphones, and the growth of tablet devices, a lot of content discovery engines will work on a mobile device, to find content that ultimately gets delivered to a TV screen.

Advertisers will likely be attracted to content discovery services, which is a slowly emerging growth market segment. But first, they'll need to see this innovation deployed and applied -- before they fully realize the potential.

Incidentally, it's nearly four years ago that I first outlined my concept of visual entertainment redesign that's focused on Personalized Media Preference -- entitled the Cisco Digital Lifescapes proposal. My point: moving beyond the inherent limitations of the industry's legacy channel-centric perspective has been a very long time coming to fruition.

In-Stat's latest market study includes the following insights:

- The installed base of smart devices will grow at an impressive compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46 percent from 2010 through 2015.

- The annual value of ad-supported content discovery on directly connected TV sets will grow to nearly $442 million in North America by 2015.

- By 2015, almost 170 million web-enabled devices in Europe will be connected.

- By the end of 2011, there will be about 30 million web-enabled TV households in Asia-Pacific.

- Only about 12 percent of web-enabled devices in all of South America will actually be connected during 2011.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Inform and Guide Customers with Crossmedia Content


Today's technology-centric business success often hinges on the ability to inform and guide prospective customers who are entering the buying-cycle for complex products and services. However, few marketers have mastered this essential skill -- informing and guiding via digital multimedia content -- in a meaningful way.

That said, eMarketer reports that findings from Focus Research indicate business-to-consumer (B2C) marketers are more likely to direct their attention to improving client understanding and retention this year than their business-to-business (B2B) counterparts, who are placing a higher emphasis on filling the sales pipeline.

Among B2B marketers, lead acquisition was the top priority for 55 percent of respondents, followed by lead conversion (45 percent). Both B2B and B2C marketers were equally focused on building brand awareness.

The inherent complexity of the B2B buying process often requires better sales support tools -- that facilitate and accelerate the buying process. Because of the longer B2B sales cycle, marketers must keep prospects engaged with their company through the use of multiple touchpoints, utilizing crossmedia content assets.

Mastering Crossmedia Content Marketing

Marketers have an endless array of digital channels and choices for uncovering prospects and starting a dialogue. MarketingProfs and Junta42 found that 63 percent of B2B marketers in North America turn to content marketing as a key business development strategy.

More specifically, North American B2B marketers used articles (78 percent) and e-newsletters (61 percent) for their content marketing efforts. More educational and instructional forms of content, such as case studies (55 percent), white papers (43 percent) and webinars (42 percent), were also used by survey respondents.

These types of educational and instructional content were rated the most valuable for directly supporting a B2B marketer's objectives, according to Focus Research.

Information Technology Services Marketing Association (ITSMA) and RainToday.com also highlighted the effectiveness of white papers and educational references as B2B marketer tools. According to their assessment, effective content types included case studies, best practices, insight into emerging markets, business trends, and how-to advice.

Why Domain Knowledge and Experience Matters

Industry-specific content that provides actionable insight and sound business knowledge is most valued among executive decision makers, but creating this type of content often requires greater production time and access to savvy talent with deep-domain experience. Perhaps that's why this powerful content asset is so rare.

eMarketer says that webinars and white papers tend to have greater longevity than articles or blog posts. They're an in-depth form of content, and are often effective at attracting prospects within the more research-oriented beginning stages of the buying process.

The challenge, in my opinion, is to map the required procurement-oriented information and guidance with the most effective communications medium. Creating useful multimedia content assets, such as short-form video, is only part of the solution. Knowing precisely when and how to apply a particular content asset in the buying cycle can make all the difference.

Friday, June 24, 2011

Why Media Tablets and Netbooks will Likely Coexist

It's been suggested by some pundits that media tablets are negatively impacting the netbook PC market, and that both device types are cannibalizing sales of desktop personal computers.

That said, results of a survey of 1,142 consumers conducted by ABI Research in March, 2011 reveal that netbooks and media tablets are comparable -- in terms of consumer interest and demand.

In fact, 25 percent of respondents rated themselves as either "extremely" or "very" interested in acquiring a netbook -- while for media tablets, the number was 27 percent.

According to ABI's assessment, purchases of these companion devices are likely to result in a prolonged PC lifecycle and thereby delay typical replacement plans.

But according to ABI mobile devices group director Jeff Orr, "Nearly half of those surveyed, however, report that they are either 'not very' or 'not at all' interested in purchasing a media tablet. The most common reason for the lack of interest is -- 'I don’t see the need,' selected by 60 percent."

Although media tablets are gaining headlines, they still face some challenges to adoption. "What activities can media tablets perform that are not already well-addressed by laptop/netbook PCs or smartphones?" Orr asks.

This may remain the single largest barrier to consumer interest.

A little more than half of the respondents believe that the primary use for the media tablet will be entertainment. In line with this result, entertainment-related applications are the ones that most people report they would likely use on the media tablet:

- 82 percent intend to use email.

- 71 percent expect to use a web browser.

- 57 percent plan to watch TV or download movies.

- 56 percent intend to use social networking.

- 55 percent plan to play games.

ABI Research conducted a similar survey on netbooks in 2009, when interest levels were shown to be higher. Moreover, the netbook use-case appears to be changing, from a focus on productivity applications towards the consumption of entertainment content.

Orr says, "This change is consistent with potential buyers realigning expectations to match modern netbook capabilities."

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Digital STB Shipments Reach 45 Million Units by 2015

Without a doubt, 2010 was a challenging year for the worldwide digital set-top box (STB) market, as total unit shipments decreased by 7 percent. It is likely that 2011 will also be a disappointing year, but there may be better news on the horizon.

Fueled primarily by the analog-to-digital transition as well as upgrades of older devices to newer HDTV versions, HD and PVR versions, and Hybrid STBs with PVR capability and a broadband connection -- digital terrestrial STB unit shipments will approach 45 million units by 2015, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.

"Digital set-top boxes continue to be key pieces of equipment for pay-TV service providers. For many service providers, the digital STB functions as their gateway into the home," says Mike Paxton, Research Director at In-Stat.

In addition to their important position in the digital TV or pay-TV ecosystem, digital set-top boxes continue to offer an attractive market opportunity for STB manufacturers and semiconductor suppliers, alike.

In fact, during 2010, digital set-top box revenues were greater than the combined revenues of video game consoles and Blu-ray players.

In-Stat's latest market study revealed the following:

- Europe is expected to account for over 50 percent of worldwide unit shipments of DTT STBs through 2011.

- There are some 30 DTT STB manufacturers with significant market shares.

- In 2010, revenue from semiconductor components inside digital set top boxes was $4.8 billion.

- Latin America remains a relatively immature market for STB products accounting for only 11 million unit shipments last year, although annual unit shipment growth topped 50 percent.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

U.S. Marketer Use of Mobile Display Ads has Doubled

comScore released results of a U.S. study on mobile advertising, which found that the number of American advertisers using mobile display ad campaigns has more than doubled in the past two years -- with mobile content and publishing accounting for half of all products advertised.

"Although mobile advertising is still in its relative infancy, it is quickly gaining importance as new advertisers come into the fold," said Hans Fredericks, comScore vice president.

The acceleration of mobile media consumption, driven by adoption of smartphones, 3G/4G networks and unlimited data plans, provides an attractive environment for advertisers looking to reach consumers through a variety of platforms -- including mobile browsers, apps and SMS.

In April 2011, 689 advertisers used mobile display advertising campaigns to reach consumers, up 128 percent from two years prior, demonstrating the growing use of the mobile marketing channel for advertisers.

An analysis of advertised categories revealed that mobile content and publishing accounted for 50 percent of mobile ads, while 26 percent of display advertisements were for consumer discretionary goods. Information technology accounted for 7 percent, while financial services accounted for 6 percent of mobile display ads.

Mobile media usage and mobile ad exposure show strong differences between smartphone users and feature phone users.

More than 80 percent of smartphone users accessed their mobile browser (82.3 percent) or applications (85.0 percent) during March, while just 19.1 percent of feature phone users utilized their mobile browser and 15.9 percent accessed apps.

Smartphone users were also far more likely to see web or in app ads (27.5 percent vs. 5.0 percent) due to their heavier usage of mobile browsers and applications and were also more likely to respond to SMS ads (7.7 percent vs. 3.5 percent).

With 31 percent of mobile users now owning a smartphone device, up from just 20 percent a year ago, the opportunity to reach consumers through the mobile marketing channel continues to improve.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

More Mobile Broadband Subscribers than on Wireline

Some view mobile broadband services as inferior offerings -- due mostly to the low-speed connections and inconsistent coverage. That said, it's often the only available broadband option for many rural locations, and a welcomed additional option to other Internet users around the world.

Infonetics Research recently released excerpts from its latest fixed wireline and mobile broadband subscribers market forecast report. The global market has reached a significant new milestone.

"As we predicted, mobile broadband subscribers surpassed wireline broadband subscribers in 2010 -- 558 million vs. 500 million," says Stefane Teral, Infonetics Research's principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure.

Fixed-line services are not dead, though, especially with China giving a boost to the worldwide wireline broadband base with its massive fiber-based program led by the Chinese government, which has set a 20Mbps benchmark for all broadband subscribers -- where most today receive 2Mbps to 3Mbps at best.

Infonetics' latest market study highlights include:

- Infonetics forecasts the number of mobile phone subscribers to grow to 6.4 billion in 2015 (the current global population is 6.9 billion).

- In 2010, Asia Pacific accounted for nearly half of all mobile subscribers.

- The number of cellular mobile broadband subscribers jumped almost 60 percent in 2010 to 558 million worldwide and should top 2 billion by 2015.

- Access lines (residential, business, and wholesale PSTN, POTS, and ISDN connections) are forecast to continue declining, falling to 759 million worldwide by 2015.

- As access lines disappear, new forms of wireline broadband continue to thrive; the number of wireline broadband subscribers (DSL, cable, PON, Ethernet FTTH, FTTB+LAN) hit 500 million worldwide in 2010.

- WiMAX, in high demand in many regions with inadequate wired infrastructure, remains modest in scale but not growth: despite the global recession, the number of WiMAX subscribers grew 75 percent in 2010, with more strong growth ahead, reaching 126 million in 2015.

- The number of VoIP subscribers (including VoIP over access lines and over other broadband lines, such as cable) is forecast to grow from 157 million in 2010 to 264 million in 2015.

- While growth in the number of video subscribers is being challenged by over-the-top (OTT) and free-to-air services, telco IPTV subscribers are forecast to triple between 2010 and 2015, and digital and satellite cable subscribers will see healthy annual growth as analog cable video subscribers continue their inevitable decline.

Monday, June 20, 2011

Pay-TV Market Transition Impacts Set-Top Box Needs

The volatile pay-TV industry is going through a period of transition, as low-cost video entertainment services gain new subscribers -- and thereby further fragment the global markets. As a result, traditional pay-TV service providers are evolving their offerings, which directly impacts their systems and CPE device suppliers.

Infonetics Research released excerpts from its first quarter 2011 (1Q11) Cable, Satellite, IPTV, and Over-the-Top (OTT) Set-Top Boxes and subscribers market share and forecast report.

"Despite a quarter-over-quarter decline in the global set-top box market, all major segments are up from this time a year ago in both revenue and shipments, indicating that the pay-TV market is rebounding after two years of significant declines," said Teresa Mastrangelo, directing analyst for video at Infonetics Research.

In 1Q11, evidence continued to mount that pay-TV service providers are in the early stages of implementing hybrid IP networks that offer both OTT and traditional on-demand services -- combined with linear broadcast TV channels.

As such, the hybrid segment of the market will experience the strongest growth over the next few years.

Infonetics' latest market study highlights include:

- The global set-top box market declined 10.2 percent in 1Q11 to $3.1 billion, primarily attributed to normal seasonal trends.

- The cable STB segment continues to contract as subscriber growth remains limited across the lucrative North America and EMEA markets and demand slows for advanced services.

- The cable STB segment experienced the strongest sequential revenue declines, down 12.9 percent in 1Q11.

- Lower than expected demand for IPTV services in EMEA during 1Q11 resulted in strong declines in shipments into this region, causing an 11.7 percent drop in global IP STB revenue.

- Demand for OTT media services remained strong in 1Q11, but challenges lie ahead for this category.

- During 1Q11, hybrid STBs represented 8 percent of revenue and 7 percent of shipments; Netgem leads in hybrid IP/OTA STBs, Motorola leads in hybrid IP/QAM STBs, and ADB leads in hybrid IP/DVB-S STBs.

- Motorola and Pace continue to battle it out for overall STB market leadership, with Motorola leading in revenue and Pace leading in unit shipments.

- Cisco is the market share leader in both revenue and shipments in the IP STB market.

- Echostar leads in worldwide satellite STB revenue, in a tight race with Technicolor.

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Essential Digital Media Business Models for Publishers


To date, the traditional publishing industry has been negatively impacted by the shift from print to online distribution -- it's a disruptive market transition that has been very challenging for the majority of legacy print media companies.

Moreover, consumers have resisted paying for most content on the web, and the soft economy has taken a toll on the online advertising-based models that many publishers embraced -- in the hope that it would become a replacement for their declining print revenue.

The arrival of eReaders and media tablets comes at an opportune time for publishers. But there's a key question, yet to be answered. Are they fully prepared to embrace the apparent trends in the marketplace and adapt their business models?

An accelerated plan of action is essential, not optional. The Amazon Kindle and Apple iPad clearly established new device categories and the customers for these products have responded by buying more digital content.

eMarketer estimates the U.S. installed base of eReaders will be nearly 21 million by the end of 2011 -- a 62.3 percent increase over last year. Further double-digit growth in eReader penetration is expected in 2012.

"There has been enthusiastic device adoption at both the high and low end of the eReader price spectrum and strong momentum in ebook sales," said Paul Verna, senior analyst at eMarketer.

As new device prices continue to decline, there will be increasing opportunities for both publishers and retail marketers to address an even greater market.

The installed base for media tablets, despite the device's higher price point and shorter time on the market, is even larger. eMarketer expects 24 million U.S. consumers to have an Apple iPad or similar media tablet by the end of 2011.

"These devices have opened a market for electronic books and periodicals," said Verna. "For that market to reach its full potential, the publishing industry will need to reverse negative trends in magazine and newspaper readership and overcome consumer resistance to paying for digital content."

Ebook revenues are rising quickly, currently at 6 percent of total U.S. book publishing revenues, according to IHS iSuppli -- that's double their 2010 share of 3 percent.

"Publishers and retailers need to find the right mix of ebook pricing, enewspaper paywalls and emagazine subscriptions to grow their digital customer bases -- without alienating their print readers," said Verna.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Mobile App Downloads to Reach 48 Billion in 2015

The mobile device applications market has grown rapidly, as a result of the addition of new products, players, and creative business models. This growth will continue, driven mainly by increased smartphone penetration, as well as growth in consumer mobile application libraries.

According to the latest market study by In-Stat, mobile application downloads are forecast to reach nearly 48 billion in 2015.

"The prevalence of handset touchscreens is a significant development impacting the mobile applications market," said Amy Cravens, Senior Analyst at In-Stat.

The projected rapid penetration of touchscreen-enabled devices will allow more users to easily interact with mobile apps, thereby driving growth. Increased on-board memory capacity will also lead to a better user experience.

In-Stat's latest market study findings include:

- Touchscreens will account for nearly 90 percent of smartphones shipped in 2011, and will increase to nearly 100 percent in the next several years.

- Smartphones are expected to increase from 23 percent of total phone shipments in 2010 to 45 percent in 2015.

- In December 2010, the number of applications in the Apple App Store reached 350,000 while Android Market reached 80,000.

- Survey results show that Apple and Android users are significantly more likely than BlackBerry users to have downloaded mobile applications.

- Smartphone applications are not only about 3G. Almost half of survey respondents report downloading applications over Wi-Fi.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Updated Global Market Outlook for PC Ecosystem

Worldwide PC shipments are now expected to grow by just 4.2 percent in 2011 -- down from a February forecast of 7.1 percent -- according to the latest market study by International Data Corporation (IDC).

A combination of declining first quarter shipments, an increasingly conservative economic outlook, relative saturation among developed market consumers, and competing products will lead to slow growth in 2011 before a rebound in 2012.

For 2012 through 2015, growth is still expected to fall in the 10 to 11 percent range.

Consumer PC purchases have been a cornerstone of PC growth over the past five years. During this time, a transition to low-cost portables helped drive purchases by new users in emerging markets as well as replacement and secondary systems in more mature markets.

Consumer PC shipment growth averaged 18.9 percent from 2005 to 2007, almost 7 percent faster than commercial shipments. During 2008 and into 2009, consumer growth was actually faster at more than 21 percent -- while commercial growth fell below 3 percent in 2008 and then dropped to -10.5 percent during the recession in 2009.

The growth in 2009, which was remarkably independent of the economic pressures following the housing bubble, banking crisis, and related recession, was largely fueled by the netbook boom.

Consumers in mature regions snapped up over 19 million mini notebooks in 2009 vs. just 6.6 million the prior year, and the jump accounted for over 80 percent of volume growth in the segment. Emerging regions also got a bump from netbooks, which added 7 million units in 2009, accounting for roughly half of growth in portable PCs.

However, the appeal of low prices for netbooks has given way to a number of factors, including relative saturation following this boom cycle, recognition of their limitations, and better competition from both mainstream notebooks and media tablets -- which increased 31 million and 17.9 million units in 2010 respectively vs. just 1.3 million for netbooks.

"Consumers are recognizing the value of owning and using multiple intelligent devices and because they already own PCs, they're now adding smartphones, media tablets, and eReaders to their device collections," said Bob O'Donnell, vice president at IDC.

The potential boost to the PC market from thinner designs, longer battery life, instant on, touch, and other improvements will likely not be widely available until 2012, and will have to address price-sensitive buyers in order to drive higher levels of growth.

In fact, the appeal of these future enhancements could be seen as another motive for consumers to delay the purchase of a new PC until they are available and to focus on other products in the meantime.

First quarter 2011 PC shipments were down 1.1 percent from the prior year, with a decline of 4.4 percent in consumer shipments that was only partially offset by 3.0 percent growth in commercial segments.

However, the decline in consumer shipments was particularly acute in mature regions, with double-digit declines in Western Europe, the U.S., and Canada.

Relatively strong growth in the second quarter of 2010 is likely to keep second quarter 2011 growth low. This trend in consumer growth, along with only modest growth in the commercial sector, a cautious outlook from PC makers, disruptions including the Japan earthquake and nuclear disaster, the Arab Spring, and reduced economic projections (including government stimulus) will keep overall growth in single digits the rest of 2011.

Nevertheless, IDC expects significant growth in both consumer and commercial markets to continue beyond 2011. New designs, chips, operating systems, features, and services, along with falling prices will continue to make PCs more powerful, affordable, and functional than ever before.

Despite incursions by smartphones and media tablets, PCs have a large user base and ecosystem, and continue to represent the most comprehensive and affordable computing platform. Adoption by new users in emerging regions as well as replacements in more mature markets will continue to drive double-digit growth through the end of the forecast.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Global Mobile Messaging Upside at $334B in 2015

The mobile phone messaging services market is a significant growth opportunity. According to the latest market study by Portio Research, total worldwide mobile subscribers stood at nearly 5.3 billion at the end of 2010.

The upside potential is huge. The subscriber base is projected to grow at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 6.9 percent between 2010 and 2015, reaching nearly 7.4 billion by the end of 2015.

The worldwide mobile messaging market was worth $179.2 billion in 2010. This number is forecast to rise to $209.8 billion in 2011, and on to $334.7 billion by the end of 2015 -- at a CAGR of 13.3 percent between 2010 and 2015.

The Asia Pacific region generated the highest mobile messaging revenue in 2010 and Latin America produced the least.

Among the four mobile messaging services studied, SMS yielded the highest revenue for mobile service providers in 2010, followed by MMS, then mobile Email and finally mobile instant messaging (IM).

SMS made the highest contribution to worldwide mobile messaging revenue in 2010 with a 63.9 percent share, followed by MMS with 18.1 percent. Mobile e-mail revenue made up 14.2 percent, and the mobile IM was 3.8 percent.

SMS is still a consistent high-revenue generating service for network operators. In 2010, worldwide SMS revenue stood at a respectable $114.6 billion -- and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 6.8 percent to reach $159 billion by end-2015.

However, it is expected that post-2011, the growth of worldwide SMS revenue will slow down due to the falling prices of SMS and the growing popularity of other data services such as mobile broadband, e-mail and IM.

With close to a 40 percent contribution to worldwide SMS revenue in 2010, the Asia Pacific region continued to generate the largest regional share of SMS revenue worldwide.

Tuesday, June 14, 2011

Significant New Trend for U.S. Consumer Electronics

ABI Research surveyed 2024 people in the United States about the consumer electronic (CE) products already in their households (device types and quantity), home networking, and purchase intent (device type, brand, and features critical to the purchase decision).

The results of their latest market study are insightful -- regarding the key trends that are shaping the evolving CE marketplace in America.

Among the significant top-line results, 24 percent of the respondents indicated that their highest-priority purchases over the next six months would likely be of HDTVs (24 percent) and Blu-ray players (17 percent).

About 60 percent of the households surveyed said they already have one HDTV.

According to ABI senior analyst Michael Inouye, "As consumers replace older TVs, there really isn't much choice now but to buy an HDTV, so even if the consumer doesn't necessarily want to view HDTV content, that's usually what they end up with. Prices for HDTVs have fallen quite a bit, and many households are now replacing their second and third television."

Video game consoles rated at the top of the wish-list at 16 percent.

Perhaps a key market indicator, 46 percent of those surveyed said they had no major purchase intentions for the next six months.

In terms of "critical/very important" factors in planned purchases, price was either the most cited or second-most for most devices.

For digital cameras, price was third (zoom range and megapixels were the top two in that category); for portable video game devices screen size and controls were the most critical factors, followed by price.

Price was also a lesser consideration in laptops, exceeded by processor speed, memory, storage capacity, and operating system.

And, perhaps counter to conventional assumptions, the survey showed that for media tablets price ranked only seventh in importance.

ABI Practice director Jason Blackwell adds, "One surprising result in regard to media tablets was that Windows came in second after Apple, and ahead of Android. That probably has more to do with brand awareness than anything else, but it does give some hope to Microsoft."

Monday, June 13, 2011

How Wi-Fi Direct Benefits Multimedia-Centric Devices

The first wireless applications likely to adopt Wi-Fi Direct (peer-to-peer connectivity) include mobile PCs, digital televisions (DTVs), and mobile phones.

These devices have something in common: they're the respective centers of the PC,consumer electronics (CE), mobile device clusters, and they ship in the hundreds of millions of devices annually.

Wireless display of images and video is a major aim of Wi-Fi Direct, so the main display in most homes will be a key target. According to the latest market study by In-Stat, in 2015 nearly 80 million DTVs will be Wi-Fi Direct-enabled.

"One significant question surrounding to Wi-Fi Direct is will it ultimately help to increase the penetration of Wi-Fi? The answer is, marginally if at all," says Brian O'Rourke, Research Director at In-Stat.

Wi-Fi already has increasing penetration rates throughout PCs, PC peripherals, CE devices, and mobile phones. Moreover, the upside for new applications within smartphones and multimedia tablets is significant.

That said, as a peer-to-peer networking technology, Wi-Fi Direct may be the most help in the CE market -- where Wi-Fi's impact has been more modest than in the PC world.

It is in the CE market -- particularly portable multimedia-centric devices -- where Wi-Fi Direct may have the most benefit and deliver the greatest added value.

In-Stat's latest market study findings include:

- Mobile PCs will adopt Wi-Fi Direct more quickly than any other application.

- Every PC, CE device and mobile phone that ships in 2014 with Wi-Fi silicon will be Wi-Fi Direct-enabled.

- Wi-Fi Direct-enabled device shipments will reach 173 million in 2011.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

U.S. Advertisers Spend $31.3B for Online Ads in 2011

 
Search advertising has the largest share of online adverting in the U.S. market, but display ad spending is gaining share. The steep growth in online video ad spending, combined with solid increases for banners, will help display ads eventually exceed search ad spending.

Total online display ad spending -- including online video, banner ads, rich media and sponsorships -- has already brought the category close to the range of investments in search engine marketing.

According to the latest market study by eMarketer, this year U.S advertisers will spend $14.38 billion on search ads and $12.33 billion on online display -- that's up by 19.8 percent and 24.5 percent, respectively, over 2010 spending.

Display will continue to grow at a faster pace than search throughout the forecast period, and is on track to surpass search by 2015.

"The re-balancing of ad budgets across the board, among companies both large and small, national and local, will be pushing more brand-oriented dollars on to the web," said David Hallerman, principal analyst at eMarketer.

The rise of display advertising, in particular online video, follows a rise in usage of digital advertising for branding. Online advertising was considered primarily for direct response, but branding is increasing in importance.

This year, eMarketer projects 39.4 percent of online ad dollars will be devoted to branding by way of banner ads, rich media, sponsorships and video. All other ad formats -- including classifieds, embedded email ads, lead generation and paid search -- are typically classified as direct response.

Spending on branding-oriented online ads will grow more quickly than direct-response spending throughout the forecast period, and by 2015 it's estimated that 44.4 percent of online advertising spending will be devoted to branding.

Friday, June 10, 2011

Digital Signage Market to Reach $4.5 Billion in 2016

According to the latest market study by ABI Research, the global market for digital signage -- including displays, media players, software, and installation or maintenance costs -- will grow from nearly $1.3 billion in 2010 to almost $4.5 billion in 2016.

Larry Fisher, Practice Director at ABI, says "Digital signs have a more compelling impact than some forms of traditional media."

Today's digital signage offerings have redefined the model for out-of-home advertising through the deployment of signs at malls, airports, and banks, among others -- signs that deliver content in real time, or content that has already been stored and scheduled for delivery at the most appropriate time.

The majority of digital signage installations today are IP-based, underscoring the evolution of digital signage away from static advertising -- each media player requires connection to a remote content management server.

This connection can be wired or wireless, and in some cases, is made via a cellular wireless service provider's network.

Why Digital Signage Content Quality Matters

According to Fisher, "A continual stream of fresh and relevant content is what separates a successful digital signage project from one that is boring and stale. Relevant could mean timely or localized, customized to the time of day or the demographics of the audience watching the screen, but deployers must consider content from the outset of a project."

With millions of digital signs now in operation worldwide, it's difficult to think of a public venue type where digital signs can't be found. That's why the market is accelerating in terms of number of installed units and total revenues.

Meanwhile the cost of deployment is steadily declining, which gives companies considering digital signage good reason to view this marketing channel as an excellent opportunity to expand messaging to customers and potential customers.

The new ABI study, "Digital Signage Market and Business Case Analysis" examines the market for digital signage and its components and networks, globally and by major geographic region, from 2010 through 2016.

Thursday, June 09, 2011

The Upside for Business Use of Media Tablet Apps

Mobile broadband service revenues from the enterprise segment -- for wireless connectivity of laptops, netbooks, and media tablets -- will reach $36 billion worldwide, according to the latest ABI Research market study.

Enterprise mobile broadband demand will be driven by a plethora of new commercial-oriented applications for the high-growth media tablet segment.

Currently, enterprise penetration of media tablets is low, according to ABI's assessment. However, relative to other big-screen portable computers, tablet mobile broadband attach rates are actually high.

In fact, in a recent survey of U.S. business customers, mobile broadband attach rates on media tablets were 33 percent higher than netbooks -- and twice as high as laptop computers.

Of course, a key component of enterprise media tablet data plan adoption will be attractive pricing.

Dan Shey, enterprise practice director at ABI says, "Favorable pricing and plan options have made it easy for early adopters in the sales, management and professional services segment to add cellular plans. Pricing will also be incredibly important as more field force personnel are mobilized."

However, workers in other business segments, whose work is facility-based -- such as healthcare staff -- have less need for a mobile broadband service plan.

Shey expects mobile phone service providers to maintain pricing flexibility in order to address segments that intermittently need cellular network access -- as an example, when Wi-Fi local area network (LAN) access isn't available.

North America and the Asia-Pacific region will garner the greatest share of mobile broadband service revenues from media tablet usage. An important driver for North America will be the availability of 4G networks.

In contrast, Asia-Pacific growth will be driven by a dynamic business market and an existing mobile device-savvy culture. Once again, the region will be a global leader in mobile data services consumption.

Wednesday, June 08, 2011

Why Asian Internet Users Generate the Most Traffic

According to the latest market study by Informa Telecoms & Media, Internet users will upload and download 1.2 million petabytes of data per year by 2015 -- around seven times more than in 2010.

Video will experience the most significant growth due to the phenomenal popularity of over-the-top entertainment services -- such as the BBC iPlayer and Netflix -- and will account for over half of all Internet traffic by 2015.

But other services -- notably online storage and back-up services such as Rapidshare and Dropbox -- will experience considerable growth.

The amount of Internet application traffic will vary greatly from region to region and -- despite the popular focus on the U.S. market -- Asia will be the larger region in terms of traffic by 2015.


The Asia-Pacific market share will have increased to 42 percent of all global Internet traffic -- by virtue of the sheer growth in user numbers that this region will see over the forecast period.

"Much of the hype about Internet traffic growth continues to come from the U.S. and Silicon Valley, but it is the Asian Internet users that are generating the most traffic. This will only become pronounced over the next few years, as the region's Internet penetration grows," said Giles Cottle, Senior Analyst at Informa.

Asia as a region has strong divisions between developing and developed markets, but even within these market segments there are major differences.

South Korea and Japan both enjoy the fastest broadband speeds in the world, but their Internet consumption is very different. South Korea is the country with the highest per-head usage rate in the world while Japan's per-head usage is lower than Spain and Italy.

There are several key reasons for this difference.

The mobile Internet is far more developed in Japan than South Korea. Piracy in Japan is far lower than in South Korea, where acquiring content via online storage sites is a mainstream activity.

And the high cost of backhaul in Japan means that online video services are typically of a relatively low quality compared with their Western peers, despite the fast connections that many users have.

And China, unsurprisingly, will also play a major role in fuelling this growth.

"China will not become the single largest Internet traffic market during our forecast period, but it will have a fundamental impact on shifting the online balance of power from East to West," concludes Cottle.

In China alone, Informa predicts that there will be 670 million Internet users in the market in 2015 -- even if many of these users are not high-volume users, they will still collectively produce a huge amount of traffic.

Tuesday, June 07, 2011

Media Tablet Apps Revenue Will Exceed $15 Billion

The media tablet application market evolved as an extension of the more developed smartphone application marketplace, but it's clearly focused on larger display devices.

The market for tablet applications will continue to develop its own identity in the coming years, particularly as the product category potential continues to expand.

According to the latest market study by In-Stat, tablet application revenues will top $15 billion in 2015. That said, it's not clear if the two apps market segments will always remain closely aligned.

"While the tablet application experience is very similar to the smartphone application experience, there are some distinctions," says Amy Cravens, Senior Analyst at In-Stat.

Although many smartphone apps are appearing in tablet form, developers are having to recreate those applications to adjust for differences in the tablet form factor.

While the different versions of the OSs are likely to merge in the future, tablet applications are likely to differ -- due to growing differences in the platform and usage models.

Key insights from the In-Stat market study include:

- Over 75 percent of the survey respondents owning a tablet have downloaded applications.

- Despite the rapid diversification in the tablet market, Apple is expected to maintain its tablet application market dominance over Android and other tablet OSs, but will see its 95 percent market share slip substantially.

- As one might expect, free applications dominate the number of downloads, while the fewer number of paid applications generate revenue.

- Survey respondents indicated that nearly 80 percent of tablet applications downloaded were through an OS provider app store.

- The majority of respondents prefer using an app store as their preferred method of payment, for both the applications and in-app purchases.

Monday, June 06, 2011

How to Overcome Mobile Phone Reception Issues

Mobile wireless signal reception issues are more acute when access devices, such as smartphones, are designed to use bandwidth-intensive applications. Adding new macro base stations has been the traditional way of creating new mobile radio capacity for service provider networks.

However, cell tower locations are becoming harder to acquire, and the cost of new base stations can be prohibitive. The solution is to utilize distributed antenna systems.

DAS represent a versatile indoor/outdoor approach for mobile transport by routing radio frequency (RF) signals through fiber or copper cabling from a single base station to multiple antennas located throughout a building or through antenna nodes.

According to the latest market study by In-Stat, the total global revenue from DAS will surpass 13 billion in 2015.

"Distributed antenna systems bridge several key areas in cellular coverage," says Chris Kissel, Analyst at In-Stat. "Femto-, pico-, micro-, and macrocells all augment cellular services and each provides a specific solution for a specific application."

However, for each nodeB, latencies must be accounted for, and each nodeB requires its own network backhaul. Wi-Fi alleviates capacity issues on cellular networks and provides terrific data rates, although there are limitations with interoperability and there are distance limitations.

At this point, DAS becomes an unconventional, but practical answer where multiple airlinks need to be supported.

In-Stat's latest market study found the following:

- By 2012, the value for all DAS projects in North America, with the exception of metro area outdoor DAS, nears $2 billion.

- In the Caribbean and Latin America regions, DAS revenue will increase 20 percent or more over the forecast period.

- By 2015, hospitals and healthcare will represent almost half of the DAS revenue opportunities for indoor deployments in Western Europe.

- In Eastern Europe, the build-up for DAS starts modestly, but eventually grows to 3,897 new deployments in 2015.

- In 2010, 15,000 new nodes were deployed in metro area outdoor DAS.

Saturday, June 04, 2011

Why Target Marketing is Effective, but Often Ignored


Legacy marketers in the U.S. rarely invest the time and effort to understand the interests and needs of their customers, which would enable them to segment the addressable marketplace -- and thereby personalize their offerings.

Why is target marketing uncommon? It's hard for someone schooled in traditional mass-marketing methods to make the transition. eMarketer reports that it requires having the market data that can be applied in relevant ways to personalize the marketing creative for each of the target groups.

But for those that do the market assessment work and make the transition -- the pay-back can be significant, with personalized offers consistently outperforming the mass-market ones.

March 2011 research from web content management provider EPiServer found that a third of U.S. marketers considered personalized campaigns to be highly effective and measurable, with another 14 percent reporting a better response rate than traditional campaigns.

But the vast majority (64 percent) offered no personalized content on their company website. A major reason marketers gave for the avoidance of personalized marketing was a lack of useful tools for implementing it -- again, that's likely not the primary reason, but it's a common justification.

The survey found more than two-thirds of U.S. marketers planned to use personalization in their campaigns within the next 6 to 12 months. So, the intent is there, perhaps event the desire -- still the key thing that's often missing is the actual execution.

Personalization intent has apparently reached the mobile platform, as marketers look more closely at the new opportunity to reach their customers while on-the-move.

King Fish Media found in an April 2011 survey of companies with a mobile marketing strategy that while just 7 percent currently offered personalized mobile experiences for customers and prospects, 42 percent planned to do so in the next year or two. Nearly three-quarters thought it would increase loyalty.

eMarketer says that email personalization also consistently shows results. A December 2011 market study by Alterian found targeted email was the most commonly personalized marketing method used worldwide.

Friday, June 03, 2011

UK Superfast Broadband: Challenges and Opportunities

The UK government's stated ambition to offer the best superfast broadband services in Europe have been negatively impacted over the past six months, according to the latest market study by Point Topic.

The deployment of IP next-generation (IP-NGN) broadband technology by BT and alternative network service providers has lagged a long way behind the original plans. Furthermore, the adoption of these services -- where they are available -- has apparently been disappointing.

Research by Point Topic shows that its overall measure of broadband coverage has actually declined -- falling from 55 percent to 53 percent in the reporting period. Meanwhile, the number of customers subscribing to superfast broadband services has been below target in many areas.

Market Development Challenges

Point Topic believes that BT will catch up on its plans, over the next year or two, and they forecast that superfast broadband will be available to two-thirds of all the homes and businesses in the UK by the end of 2015.

Moreover, the forecast for superfast broadband lines in use by 2015 has been cut from 8.8 million to 6.7 million (note: these figures are for superfast broadband over existing telephone networks or new fiber infrastructure. They do not include superfast services over the Virgin Media cable network).

Tim Johnson, Chief Analyst at Point Topic, suggests that -- given these circumstances in the UK market -- community outreach and engagement initiatives, intended to provide awareness of superfast broadband benefits, can play a very important role.

Johnson said "Alternative networks are finding the going quite hard at the moment. They're in danger of being sidelined by BT and the big ISPs. But these initiatives could play a vital part in creating demand for superfast broadband to the great benefit of local communities."

The reasons for the setback are clear to Johnson. BT's rollout of next-gen access services reached only 182 exchanges by the end of 2010 -- rather than the 343 exchanges which had previously been forecast.

Johnson says that Fibrecity's ambitious plans to provide Bournemouth and Dundee with fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) collapsed. Many more firmly-founded alternative networks (altnets) cut back on their own roll-out plans, faced with the economic realities of providing superfast broadband.

Market Development Opportunities

At the same time, experience with actual demand where services are available, or likely to be, showed the huge importance of community engagement initiatives that are intended to raise awareness and interest in superfast broadband.

As an example, the "Race to Infinity" competition, where people could vote to get BT's superfast broadband in their area, received an excellent response where there was a strong community campaign -- but little or nothing elsewhere.

Six BT exchange areas attained a 100 percent vote for having superfast, and a handful more over 60 percent, but this was a tiny proportion of the thousands of exchange areas concerned.

The same experience is being repeated in BT exchange areas where superfast services are already available. In areas where there is special interest for some reason, service adoption is high. In many more locations the level is rather disappointing, according to Johnson's assessment.

"This shows the key role which community initiatives have to play in getting the UK wired up to superfast broadband," Mr Johnson added. "Even if they never get to build an independent network they can prod BT into taking action and make them offer cheaper solutions. But it may be even more important that they turn people on to the benefits of superfast broadband, and get them interested in using it."

Strategic Significance of the East London Tech City

The focus is now on the British government's economic development leadership, particularly as it executes on the plan to make the East London Tech City project a showcase for the UK's role in the global networked economy. Access to superfast broadband is considered by local business stakeholders to be an essential ingredient of a digital economy strategy.
"Our ambition is to bring together the creativity and energy of Shoreditch and the incredible possibilities of the Olympic Park to help make East London one of the world's great technology centres." - The Rt Hon. David Cameron MP, Prime Minister

Thursday, June 02, 2011

OTT Video Drives Streaming Media Player Sales

The rapid adoption and growth of Over-the-Top (OTT) video entertainment -- such as Netflix in the U.S. market --  is generating interest for various consumer electronics (CE) products that support streaming media services.

One of these products, the streaming media player -- which is sometimes called an OTT set-top box or a digital media adapter, such as the Roku -- has enjoyed significant growth over the past two years.

Worldwide streaming media player unit shipments are projected to increase in 2011, finishing the year at just over 3.6 million, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.

"There are some significant challenges facing the market for streaming media players," according to Mike Paxton, Research Director at In-Stat.

Foremost among them is how to competitively position streaming media players against other products -- such as connected Blu-ray players and video game consoles, that are more common in both consumer households and in retail stores.

In-Stat notes that the ability to stream IP video is rapidly becoming a common CE product feature, rather than the central function of a device. Therefore, some leading streaming media player vendors may de-emphasize their stand-alone devices and focus future product development efforts on their streaming media software platform.

Other findings from the latest In-Stat market study include:

- North America is the largest market for streaming media player products, accounting for 82 percent of all worldwide product unit shipments in 2010.

- Apple TV remains the leading streaming media player product on the market.

- The increasing availability of Internet-connected TV sets and hybrid set top boxes will also impact the long-term viability of the streaming media player market.

- Even with the challenges surrounding the market segment, In-Stat is forecasting that the worldwide installed base of streaming media players will surpass 15 million by 2015.

Wednesday, June 01, 2011

IPTV STB Designs Require Significant Enhancements

The early implementations of IPTV service deployments mirrored the legacy cable and satellite service models -- they were channel-centric offerings with the same strengths and weaknesses. None were inherently designed in preparation for the transformation to on-demand video applications.

Infonetics Research released the results of its latest market study which captures service provider updated requirements for IP-based set-top boxes (STBs) -- to deliver pay-TV video entertainment services that can compete with Over-the-Top offerings.

"Although low-cost set-top boxes designed to deliver basic video services over broadband infrastructure were the hallmark of IPTV services, strong competition and the need to increase ARPU have led to significant changes in STB design over the years, says Teresa Mastrangelo, directing analyst for video at Infonetics Research.

The STB remains the most visible point of interaction between subscribers and IPTV providers and is a key component to an operator's success. In the recent Infonetics STB survey results, service providers rated the STB features that are most important to them.

Those feature requirements include support on HDMI inputs for 1080p picture quality, integrated hard drive for PVR support, USB inputs for external memory, the use of SoCs (system-on-a-chip) in the design, and environmentally friendly features.

Highlights from the latest Infonetics market study include:

- While video conferencing is an application sometimes mentioned for IPTV services, it is not rated highly by many survey respondents.

- Ethernet is the preferred technology for delivering video to multiple devices in the home.

- In an open-ended question asking carriers which vendors they consider to be the top three IP STB manufacturers, Motorola finished at the top of the list, followed by Cisco.

- Amino is the most installed IP STB vendor, illustrating its long history as an IP-STB vendor, particularly among operators that were early pioneers in IPTV.