Saturday, January 30, 2010

Digital Marketing Metrics and Reporting Shifts


eMarketer reports that digital marketing survived the downturn, and marketers worldwide are now bullish about the prospects for growth in 2010, according to the latest market study by the Society of Digital Agencies (SoDA).

Their report found that 81 percent of the marketing executives surveyed expected an increase in digital projects in 2010, and one-half will be moving funds from traditional to digital budgets.

More than three-quarters also think the current economy will push more allocations to digital marketing projects. Senior marketers reported that social networks and applications were their biggest priority for 2010, followed closely by digital infrastructure.

While social media marketing looks set to stay top-of-mind, a majority of respondents considered a wide range of digital activities to be important, with only games failing to inspire widespread interest.

As paid traditional media investments stagnated or decreased, paid digital spending has held steady or gone up, usually by less than 30 percent. But unpaid media spending has seen the sharpest rise, with nearly one-fifth of respondents reporting increases of more than 30 percent.

Climbing unpaid-media spending is likely an effect of the increased emphasis on social networks, where the most effective efforts are earned, not bought. Marketers are looking closely at measures of engagement. Respondents considered time spent on a site to be the most important performance metric, followed by unique page views.

Despite a bright outlook for digital, the SoDA report warned marketers that they must keep pushing for advances in the channel.

"Digital agencies must avoid complacency at all costs and continue to focus on driving innovation as well as engaging consumers with relevant dialog in uncharted and fast-moving channels," said Steve Wages, interim executive director of SoDA, in a statement.

Friday, January 29, 2010

Australians: Most Active Social Media Users

Web users spent more than five and half hours on social networking sites in December 2009, an 82 percent increase from 2008 -- when users were spending just over three hours on social networking sites, according to the latest market study by The Nielsen Company.

Globally, social networks and blogs are the most popular online category when ranked by average time spent, followed by online games and instant messaging.

With 206.9 million unique visitors, Facebook was the top global social networking destination in December 2009 and 67 percent of global social media users. Time on site for Facebook has also been on the rise, with global users spending nearly six hours per month on the site.

People in the U.S. continue to spend more time on social networking and blog sites as well, with total minutes increasing 210 percent year-over-year and the average time per person increasing 143 percent.

Year-over-year growth in average time spent by U.S. users, for both Facebook and Twitter.com, outpaced the overall growth for the category, increasing 200 percent and 368 percent, respectively.

Among the top five U.S. social networking sites, Twitter.com was the fastest-growing in terms of unique visitors, increasing 579 percent year-over-year, from 2.7 million unique visitors in December 2008 to 18.1 million in December 2009.

When narrowed by individual country, with 142.1 million unique visitors the United States had the largest number of social media and blog users, followed by Japan, which had 46.6 million unique visitors.

Australia led in average time per person spent, with the average Australian spending nearly 7 hours on social media sites. The United States and the United Kingdom came in second and third, with 6 hours and 9 minutes and 6 hours and 8 minutes, respectively.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

4.5 Billion Downloads from Mobile App Stores

Consumers will spend $6.2 billion in 2010 in mobile application stores while advertising revenue is expected to generate $0.6 billion worldwide, according to the latest market study by Gartner.

Mobile application stores will exceed 4.5 billion App downloads in 2010, eight out of ten of which will be (ad-supported or otherwise) free to end users of these Apps.

Gartner forecasts worldwide downloads in mobile application stores to surpass 21.6 billion by 2013. Free downloads will account for 82 percent of all downloads in 2010, and will account for 87 percent of downloads in 2013.

"As smartphones grow in popularity and application stores become the focus for several players in the value chain, more consumers will experiment with application downloads," said Stephanie Baghdassarian, research director at Gartner.

Games remain the top application, and mobile shopping, social networking, utilities and productivity tools continue to grow and attract increasing amounts of money.

An application can be free because the developer is offering it at no cost to the consumer while charging for other things within the application. There are also applications that are free to use but that charge for physical goods that you can have delivered through the application.

There are many applications that are free to users and derive their revenue from advertising. This can be done with banners as well as full page advertising between game levels for instance.

Worldwide mobile application store download revenue exceeded $4.2 billion in 2009 and will grow to $29.5 billion by the end of 2013. This revenue forecast includes end-user spending on paid-for applications and advertising-sponsored free applications.

Advertising-sponsored mobile applications will generate almost 25 per cent of mobile application stores revenue by 2013. They will likely also generate a groundswell of new broadband network traffic for mobile service providers.

High-end smartphone users today tend to be early adopters of new mobile applications and more trustful of billing mechanisms, so they will pay for applications that can meet their needs.

Average smartphone users will become less tech-savvy as smartphones come down in price to have a mass-market appeal. These users will likely be more reluctant to pay for applications.

"Application stores will be a core focus throughout 2010 for the mobile industry and applications themselves will help determine the winners among mobile device platforms," said Carolina Milanesi, research director at Gartner.

Consumers will have a wide choice of stores and will seek the ones that make it easy for them to discover applications they are interested in and make it easy to pay for them when they are required.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

Blu-ray Players with IP Network Connectivity

High-volume shipments of Blu-ray disc players, most of which feature IP network connectivity, are finally making inroads into the broader disc player and recorder market, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.

By 2013, Blu-ray player shipments will still lag slightly behind the 90 million DVD player unit shipments. However, higher average selling prices will put Blu-ray player revenue at more than 4 times as large as DVD player revenue.

"In North America, significant price drops of Blu-ray players drove unit shipments to triple in 2009," says Michelle Abraham, In-Stat analyst. Regardless, other markets are still the leading adopters of this technology.

The cost differential between standard definition DVD and Blu-ray is becoming much smaller and new features such as IP network connectivity are becoming increasingly important. Blu-ray is finally starting to make significant advances in the marketplace.

Blu-ray players are predicted to become one of the key levers that will aid the growth and adoption of streamed over-the-top video distribution and consumption on legacy television sets -- eventually replacing the top position that is currently held by video gaming consoles.

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- Shipments of IP network-enabled Blu-ray players and recorders will approach 80 million units by 2013.

- 18 percent of U.S. survey respondents with at least some interest in purchasing a Blu-ray player cited cost as a barrier.

- Japan dominates the market for Blu-ray recorders. Europe is the largest revenue market for Blu-ray players.

- The key semiconductor providers supporting the Blu-ray and DVD player/recorder market include Broadcom, NEC, MediaTek, Sunplus and Zoran.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

Continued Growth for the Mobile App Stores

Mobile application stores enabled 3.6 billion apps to be downloaded in 2009 -- which is expected to rise to 6.6 billion this year, and grow to 16.2 billion in 2013 -- according to the latest market study and assessment by Futuresource Consulting.

At the upcoming Mobile World Congress event, the App Planet showcase will be devoted to this phenomenon that's helping to fuel demand for Mobile Internet subscription and consumption.

"More than 85 percent of app store downloads are currently free to users, and we expect this percentage to remain stable for the next few years," says Patrik Pfandler, senior market analyst at Futuresource.

"The market will experience vigorous consumer spending, and the paid-for market has already developed beyond the established gaming segment. Our forecasts are showing global revenues of $4.6 billion this year, rising to nearly $15 billion in 2013, which includes payments for direct pay-per-download and indirect value-add services like in-app payments and subscriptions."

Futuresource says that these figures are directly attributable to app stores.

Factor in mobile content revenues which fall beyond the world of the apps store -- like direct downloads from gaming companies, handset manufacturers and operators, video downloads, music and ringtones -- and the whole package will be worth $38 billion worldwide by 2013.

By the end of 2009, approximately 70 million Apple iPhone and iPod Touch users downloaded over three billion applications from the Apple app store, resulting with Apple taking a 70 percent share of total app downloads that year.

Nokia is a key player and is currently driving its own Ovi-based apps program. Samsung is also pushing apps development as a core element of its strategy, with its own and third party operating systems. Meanwhile, RIM (Blackberry) is driving hard into the consumer market and is well-placed to play a pivotal role in helping to counter-balance the strength of Apple.

Google's foray into the mobile hardware market and the vast resources it can channel into its Android platform place it in a favorable position, but Google will need strong support from other handset vendors to reach critical mass.

As with mainstream Internet browsing, search discovery will be critical to the success or failure of any app, particularly as application numbers increase exponentially and developers look to gain competitive exposure.

"Word-of-mouth and viral marketing campaigns are the key methods of directing users towards particular apps and app stores," says Pfandler, "though smartphone users are also browsing apps charts, responding to mobile ads and ads embedded within their existing apps, as well as reacting favorably to more traditional online, television and even print advertising."

Last year, mobile phone ownership exceeded four billion users, which equates to nearly 60 percent of the world's population. Although the total handset market began to decline in 2009, smartphone sales are rising fast, with Futuresource predicting that more than one billion people will own a smartphone by 2013.

Moving forward, the success of the app store holds promise for other devices such as tablets and connected TVs. In particular, Futuresource expects applications to become a key feature of connected TVs and Blu-ray disc players.

Monday, January 25, 2010

Broadband Consumers Using Multiple Access

Consumer enthusiasm for broadband service continues unabated. In fact, some will subscribe to more than one type of broadband access, according to the latest market study by In-Stat. During 2009, an average of 8.8 million new broadband subscribers worldwide signed up for service each month.

By 2013, In-Stat forecasts that the number of global broadband subscribers will surpass 1 billion.

"The growing popularity of bandwidth-intensive applications, such as watching online video, using IP-based telephony services, and downloading music files, is spurring global demand for broadband Internet connections," says Mike Paxton, In-Stat analyst.

Their reporting on the penetration of DSL relative to Mobile Internet subscribers was a surprise to me. I'm wondering if In-Stat has some of their data points transposed in their research report summary. Can it be true, that mobile wireless broadband has already surpassed cable broadband access, globally?

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- As of December 2009, there were 578 million worldwide broadband subscribers, an increase of 99 million over the year-end 2008 subscriber total.

- DSL, mobile wireless, and cable modem service are the leading access technologies, providing 89 percent of worldwide broadband connections.

- Mobile wireless broadband is the second largest access technology (behind DSL) with 18 percent of total subscribers.

- Over the next few years, the number of households with multiple broadband connections will increase significantly. These multiple connection households will commonly have a wired broadband access technology, like DSL or cable modem service, along with a mobile wireless broadband connection.

Saturday, January 23, 2010

Marketers Plan to Develop New Mobile Apps


eMarketer reports that mobile application (app) investment should grow significantly in 2010, according to the latest market study by DM2PRO and Quattro Wireless.

In contrast, spending on social media apps will stagnate -- even though more marketers have already developed those applications. Among those marketers who already had an social media app in 2009, however, Facebook was the leading platform.

Fewer than one-half of marketers created either a mobile or social app in 2009, but most plan to invest in a mobile app this year. The Apple iPhone is the platform of choice, followed by Google Android.

"Engagement" was the top reason to choose either mobile or social as an app platform, but social sites were perceived as better for many top goals -- including engagement, audience targeting, sharing and branding potential, and reach.

Mobile, however, scored higher on creative control and persistence.

The top one-third of advertisers and agencies using mobile apps planned to up their investments by 75 percent or more. Marketers who used apps reported a growing market, client demand and increased standardization in the app world as reasons to spend more in the coming months.

Those same reasons would spur publishers and marketers to develop mobile applications. They were also interested in better tools, distribution and ways for users to discover their apps.

Those factors will only increase in importance as apps continue to proliferate and marketers and other developers attempt to stand out from the competition.

Approximately 15 percent of advertisers and agencies spent more than 60 percent of their app budgets on promotion in 2009, but more than one-third spent less than 5 percent. Therefore, promotional budgets will need to increase along with overall investment for apps to find their way to users.

Perhaps we'll start to see advertiser-supported mobile apps being featured in Google Adwords campaigns. It's a low-cost method of app promotion and it enables better targeting of mobile smartphone subscribers. Eventually, mobile app stores will become saturated with new content.

Friday, January 22, 2010

The Very Real Investments in Virtual Goods

According to the latest market study by Engage Digital Media, an amazing $1.38 billion was invested in 87 virtual goods-related companies.

The amount invested in 2009 represents more than three times the investment in the virtual goods space in 2008 -- when $408 million was invested. The total number of companies receiving investment money also increased year-over-year -- 87 in 2009 compared with 34 in 2008, an increase of more than 100 percent.

Of the $1.38 billion invested for the year, $398.3 million is acquisition related.

"Virtual goods was the hot story of 2009, driving investment that crossed over into game development, virtual currency, payment services, and social networks," said Christopher Sherman, CEO of Engage Digital Media.

In the fourth quarter alone, companies raised an astounding $944 million -- more than double the amount raised in all four quarters of 2008. Also noteworthy was the number of acquisitions in the space -- 18 of the course of the year -- with half of those taking place in the 4th quarter.

The single largest investment in the virtual goods space was the $300 million game publisher Electronic Arts paid to acquire social games developer Playfish in November. The second largest acquisition was China-based KongZhong's $80 million acquisition of China-based Dacheng. In total, 18 acquisitions took place during the year.

In all but five instances the transaction amounts were not disclosed.

Russian firm Digital Sky Technologies was by far the largest investor in the space in 2009 with its investments in Zynga and Facebook. Digital Sky invested $200 million in the social network Facebook, and it invested a further $180 million in the social game publisher Zynga. Facebook serves as the primary platform for most of Zynga's games.

While Facebook does not derive the majority of its income from virtual goods, it still generates about $75 million annually from sales of virtual gifts. It has also launched a "virtual currency platform" that may begin generating significant revenue for the company in 2010.

These factors, and its role as the primary platform for Zynga's games, underscore the close relationship Facebook has with the virtual goods industry. Facebook's role in the virtual goods space is not expected to diminish significantly in 2010.

The fourth largest investment in the virtual goods space, in the U.S. market, went to social gaming firm RockYou, with $50 million invested by Asian backer Softbank. The fifth largest investment in the U.S. was $43 million for social games developer and publisher Playdom.

Social gaming is an important trend in the overall virtual goods space in 2009. In 2008, only about $82 million was invested in the entirety of the social games space. In 2009, over $600 million was invested directly in the space, not counting any investments in social networks or non-gaming social developers.

A major Chinese investment of the year -- one that ties the massive $180 million investment in Zynga -- took place when U.S. firm Sequoia Capital came together with Chinese firms Fountainvest Partners and CITIC Capital to pour $180 million into the Chinese web portal Sina.

This web portal features its own virtual currency and limited virtual goods offerings, though its overall revenue has been estimated to be 70 percent advertising-generated. Regardless, the investment was counted in light of Sina's rivalry with Chinese virtual goods giant Tencent.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

Quest for the Next Wave of Broadband Growth

Where's the primary opportunity of new consumer demand for broadband services? According to the latest market study by Informa, global fixed-broadband subscription numbers will reach half a billion this year, driven by continued growth in the emerging markets.

Although the fixed-broadband markets of many developed countries are saturated, tens of millions of homes in China and India are still without broadband. These under-served markets are poised to drive yet another wave of broadband growth -- creating opportunities for service providers and equipment vendors.

"Overall the number of net new fixed-broadband subscriptions grew in 2009 to over 480 million, largely as a result of accelerating growth in emerging markets and we expect this number to reach 500 million this year. China, Russia, Mexico, India and Vietnam were among the countries that recorded the greatest leaps in fixed-broadband subscription numbers last year," said Rob Gallagher, Principal Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.

China extended its broadband subscriber lead over the U.S., and Russia overtook Italy to claim the number eight spot. India, Mexico, Turkey, the Ukraine and Vietnam look set to also grow strongly, provided that current trends continue.

Seven of the top 20 countries -- by fixed-broadband subscription count -- at the end of September 2009 could be classified as emerging markets. The number of net additions in each of these countries was up substantially year-on-year, while those of the world's largest developed markets were either flat or down.

"Given that about four out of five households do not have broadband in these markets, there is still much room for growth. We forecast that these under-served markets will contribute the bulk of the next 100 million subscriptions by 2014," concludes Gallagher.

All regions recorded increases in fixed-broadband household penetration of between three and five percentage points in the first half of 2009 -- except Africa, because of problems such as poor fixed-line infrastructure and very low income levels.

Many of the fastest-growing markets -- relative to their size -- were in the Middle East, despite the high levels of fixed-broadband household penetration.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

New Demand for Internet-enabled CE Devices

In 2009, much of the dialog about plans to incorporate Internet access into all manner of consumer devices was just that, mostly talk and little action. However, this year the increasing popularity of Internet-enabled consumer electronics (CE) is now considered a key growth driver for the digital entertainment industry.

Over-the-top (OTT) video services are increasingly offering compelling alternatives to traditional pay-TV services, according to the latest market study by In-Stat. New alternative offerings -- such as Netflix, Amazon, iTunes and Blockbuster -- offer streamed or downloadable TV and movie content.

Ad-supported online TV programming portals, such as Hulu, TV.com, and YouTube, have expanded into full-length video content. Web-enabled devices, which are a necessity to access these OTT services, are now proliferating across device categories that include TVs, Blu-ray Players, Digital Media Adapters (DMAs), network attached storage, and set-top boxes.

"Most web-enabled CE devices will be sold in developed countries. Our research shows that within five years nearly all broadband households will own at least one web-enabled CE media device," says Norm Bogen, In-Stat analyst. "The implications of this across the digital entertainment industry will be huge."

In-Stat's market study found the following:

*- Worldwide shipments of web-enabled stationary CE devices will grow more than seven-fold from their 2009 levels to over 230 million by 2013.

- There will be over one-half billion web-enabled CE devices in operation worldwide by 2013.

- In 2009, there were five broadband households worldwide for every web-enabled CE device. By 2013, this will reach a 2:1 ration.

- Many cable operators, worldwide, are predicted to introduce BBC iPlayer-like OTT services for catch-up and on-demand program viewing.

- In-Stat's consumer survey indicates that over half of U.S. consumers with network-connected Blu-ray DVD players or recorders use Wi-Fi, while 30 percent use wired Ethernet connections.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Mobile Internet Access is the New Battlefield

According to the latest market study by Informa, total mobile service revenues will exceed $1 trillion in 2013, despite a projected fall in voice call related revenues. Growth in service revenues will be driven by data related revenues -- rising to over $330 billion, up from an estimated $208 billion in 2008.

"The backdrop to this transition in the industry is the fact that the Internet has started to dominate the landscape for new services and applications, and telecoms operators are under increasing pressure to remain valuable and relevant in the eyes of their end-users," says Mark Newman, Chief Research Officer at Informa Telecoms & Media.

As this happens, the growth in data revenues is being spurred by the rise in take-up of more advanced technologies and mobile broadband services, as well as new handset interfaces and mobile content strategies based on open application stores rather than closed walled gardens.

Illustrating the significance of data services to mobile operators, Informa predicts that data revenues and data ARPU in Japan will actually surpass voice revenues and ARPU in 2014.

At a time when Japan's mobile operators are looking for more sustainable revenue streams by offering personalized services that make use of their high network capacity for data, the advent of LTE should help to support this boom in data revenues.

Informa projects that data revenues in Japan will reach $39.7 billion in 2014, and that monthly data ARPU will be $24.56 -- apparently, by comparison, the highest in the world.

Second-generation mobile technologies still account for 90 percent of the world's subscriptions, but by the end of 2012, this figure will fall to 70 percent, and by the end of 2014, over half the world's 6.7 billion mobile subscriptions will be to 3G and 3.5G+ technologies.

Furthermore, Informa projects that by the end of 2014, 3.5G+ technologies will represent over a third of the total number of subscriptions.

The quality and coverage of a mobile operator's network remains an important point of differentiation. The explosion of mobile broadband has renewed the significance of the network itself -- as operators market their mobile broadband services around the speed and geographical range of their network.

With global subscription penetration set to reach 92 percent in 2014 -- and meaningful new overall growth only available in rural parts of Africa and Asia Pacific -- data service strategies are central to mobile operator success, both as a way to generate new revenues and to minimize the impact of churn.

Monday, January 18, 2010

Blu-ray Players Enabling OTT Video Uptake

Internet video device shipments will experience global growth of 78 percent year-over-year from 2009 to 2010, according to the latest market study by IMS Research.

The Internet-enabled device categories that will see the most significant uptake in the short term are connected TVs and connected Blu-ray players.

Rebecca Kurlak, author of their report, states "With the Blu-ray Disc Association releasing the Blu-ray 3D specification a month ago, and the continued decline in the device category's average selling price, IMS Research expects consumers to welcome Blu-ray players into their homes."

With nearly all Blu-ray players manufactured with IP connectivity enabling access to video on demand (VoD) libraries like Netflix, Amazon, Vudu, and CinemaNow, Blu-ray players are now more compelling for purchase consideration than they have been since their market debut.

Adoption of these new consumer electronics (CE) devices will ultimately increase the use of over-the-top IP video service offerings, both pay-per-view and subscription.

Kurlak says "At the Digital Living Room Conference, it was announced that 10 percent of the 2009 box office sales were attributed to 3-D movies. Our forecast accounts for this growing preference, and we expect global connected Blu-ray shipments to exceed 28 million devices in 2011."

This report builds onto IMS Research's first Internet Video household and device study that was released in December 2008. Equipment forecasts include internet connected equipment such as Blu-ray players, game consoles, media extenders, proprietary equipment, retail DTT+IP set-top boxes and connected TV sets.

While the previous forecast revealed opportunities in this nascent market, the new study incorporates the latest shipment data and industry trends along with splits of pay versus ad-supported IP video content delivery.

This update also extends the forecast period through 2015, at which time households with the ability to view Internet video on the TV are expected to exceed 473 million.

Saturday, January 16, 2010

Music Sales Shift from Downloads to Streams


The U.S. recorded music industry has been challenged. Traditional media companies were slow to embrace the online distribution of digital music. They ignored consumer needs, until CD sales went into a rapid decline -- due partly to P2P file sharing activity.

Having moved beyond their prior denial, regarding the shift in market demand, big-media record labels are still attempting to recover from their self-inflicted downturns in revenue and profit.

eMarketer forecasts that U.S. consumer spending on digital music will increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.04 percent in the next four years, reaching $4.56 billion in 2013, up from $3 billion in 2009.

All of this new growth will come from the online segment -- which comprises track downloads, full album downloads, music videos, digital kiosks and subscription services.

"eMarketer expects the tipping point between physical and digital formats to occur sometime in 2010," said Paul Verna, senior analyst and author of their new report.

Paid music services are starting to shift their focus away from selling downloads and instead concentrate on granting users paid subscription access to content -- including the music libraries they already own.

Apple, far and away the market leader in the digital music distribution industry, has seen its iTunes ecosystem slow in growth, while cloud-based initiatives gather momentum.

The idea behind a cloud-based music service is to allow users to store collections on remote servers and access the content on all connected devices -- computers, smartphones, netbooks, tablets, e-readers and game consoles.

"While the first generation of U.S. digital music services was predominantly download-based, the next iteration is likely to be based around subscription models," said Mr. Verna.

U.S. consumers are growing accustomed to accessing digital content on remote servers via Web browsers. Extending this paradigm to music files is a logical step, and one that content owners are determined to make work.

Friday, January 15, 2010

Video Subscription versus Pay-per-View Model

Pay-TV Video on Demand (VoD) that's delivered directly to the television is generating consumer interest, but very little revenue for service providers. Free content currently accounts for more than 95 percent of the video being watched.

A new pay-TV market study by Futuresource Consulting predicts that some consumers will pay extra for movies on demand. The question that remains is what's the consumer-preferred method -- payment by monthly subscription, or pay-per-view?

Futuresource forecasts that by 2013, transactional (pay-per-view) revenues from movies on demand will reach $2.4 billion in the USA and 430 million Euros in the leading five Western European countries.

"The rise of on-demand video content that can be accessed through a laptop, PC or mobile phone shows no signs of stopping," says Carl Hibbert, Business Consultant, Futuresource, "and with so much competition out there, the consumer is in the driving seat, demanding entertainment be delivered on their terms, whenever, wherever and however they please."

The pay-TV industry is looking to VoD to supplement its linear scheduled TV offering. As well as improving their consumer proposition, reducing customer churn and recalibrating their brand positioning. Operators are attempting to use VoD to drive up the average revenue per user (ARPU), rather than improve their actual profit.

Paid-for VoD is a small part of the market, but it is expanding, and that's despite the glut of readily-available free and catch-up VoD. Growth opportunities are coming from the continued conversion of analogue to digital cable, the expansion of IPTV, and the introduction of hybrid services by satellite operators.

As movie release windows shorten and VoD releases come on stream day-and-date with DVD and Blu-ray, Futuresource believes we're going to see more traction. That said, a number of studios are holding back, believing this may cannibalize their packaged media revenues.

Apparently, improved electronic program guides (EPG) will also help to boost VoD buy rates, making content search and purchase easier, and in some cases allowing for more personalized services.

In this context, the definition of "personalization" seems subjective.

Futuresource says that the next user experience enhancement is "lifestyle-orientated" TV homepages, which will help to filter and focus all the live and on-demand content available. Thereby enabling the consumer to pinpoint and purchase relevant content as soon as it becomes available.

In contrast, I believe that a truly personalized "recommendation-oriented" playlist -- similar to the Netflix member Queue concept -- will become the most preferred method to consume video. Furthermore, the flat-fee monthly subscription model will gain more adopters than the legacy pay-per-view model.

Thursday, January 14, 2010

Demand for Next-Generation Video Advertising

The world of advertising is changing dramatically with shifts in consumer behavior and growing online and pay TV video-on-demand (VOD) services, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.

These shifts among others are creating a growing market for advanced video advertising, which In-Stat forecasts will approach $5 billion by 2013.

Online VoD services, such as Hulu, CBS Interactive and ABC.com, are already driving growing advanced advertising revenue across their platforms. During the next five years, Pay-TV approaches to advanced advertising tied to popular TV shows, videos, movies and music content will come into their own.

"The online VoD industry has the early lead for delivering Advanced Video Advertising, but the Pay-TV industry is moving quickly and will surpass broadband VOD by 2012," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.

Because Pay-TV services deliver qualified, repeatable audiences, we can expect them to be able to negotiate higher Cost per Thousand (CPM) fees than online services.

Advanced Advertising is the next-generation approach that permits advertisers to dramatically improve their targeting, reporting, and overall return on investment (ROI.)

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- TV Everywhere initiatives will extend ad-supported Pay-TV VOD services to online and mobile users.

- Among the key companies enabling advanced video advertising are Adobe, Arris, Brightcove, Cisco, Motorola, Rovi, Sigma Systems, and thePlatform.

- The Cable TV industry's Canoe Ventures is working to help Pay-TV operators create large, plan-able audiences that can be cost-effectively sold directly to the large national advertisers.

Wednesday, January 13, 2010

Compelling Business Case for 4G Coexistence

The number of WiMAX network deployments -- currently more than 500 across 145 countries -- is greater than that of any conventional 3G network technology and more than 50 percent greater than the number of HSPA network commitments.

However, most 4G WiMAX deployments to date have been small.

According to the latest market study by Pyramid Research, we should anticipate that coverage will increase. Many of the larger WiMAX deployments are still underway, and large countries -- such as India, Indonesia and Vietnam -- are just beginning to issue WiMAX licenses.

Highlights from the Pyramid market study include:

- Markets with the lowest broadband penetration rates represent the most upside, and they estimate that roughly 70 percent of WiMAX deployments are in emerging markets, led by the Africa and Middle East region with more than a quarter of global deployments.

- WiMAX volumes are dependent on the success of only a handful of large operators, while LTE has the backing of a substantial number of heavyweights -- most noticeably the largest Chinese operators.

- WiMAX operators are increasingly open to switching to LTE when doing so is necessary and economical, but they do not expect any of them to migrate to LTE anytime before 2013.

- Factors driving operators to deploy WiMAX are speed to market, surgical network deployment opportunities, mobility, multiple-use scenarios, its IP architecture, and the cost of spectrum and deployment.

- Certain operators in emerging markets would benefit from bypassing 3G in favor of moving directly to LTE in a few years, although this decision will depend on factors such as spectrum resources.

- Despite HSPA's greater scale, WiMAX USB dongles are priced competitively and even less expensive in some cases compared with other USB dongles.

- The LTE community has built on both the successes and mistakes made by the WiMAX community to create an improved OFDMA-based standard that conforms to a wider variety of spectrum bands and channel types.

- The LTE camp has learned from drawbacks to the prior walled-garden approaches of UMTS/HSPA and EVDO, and is being more open, flexible and harmonious, much like the WiMAX community is already.

- By 2014, Pyramid expects there to be nearly 53 million WiMAX subscribers worldwide, up from 5.5 million at year-end 2009. Fixed/portable WiMAX will remain more popular than mobile WiMAX services through 2014.

Tuesday, January 12, 2010

3D Video Entertainment is Going Mainstream

There were numerous announcements about 3D technology during CES. The basic concept has been with us for many years, but had never reached common use. The popularity of Avatar and other 3D movies, however, will put 3D TV into the mainstream, according to the latest study by In-Stat.

2010 will be a big year for 3D entertainment, as movie studios release more 3D films shown in a growing number of 3D-equipped theaters.

"Exposure to 3D films is important to the debut of 3D TV, because consumers who have seen 3D films are more interested than the general population in being able to view 3D content at home," says Michelle Abraham, In-Stat analyst.

In-Stat's 3D consumer survey shows that 64 percent of consumers are at least somewhat interested in 3D in the home. For those who have seen a 3D movie in the last 12 months, the percentage increases to 76 percent.

In-Stat's market study found the following:

- In-Stat projects worldwide 3D TV shipments will reach 41 million in 2014.

- 3D Blu-ray player shipments will track closely with 3D TVs.

- Pricing is a major barrier, as survey respondents are not willing to pay much of a premium for 3D TV sets and Blu-ray players.

- Many Pay-TV operators will use half resolution 3D as a stepping stone and learning opportunity for full HD 3D in the future.

- On a regional basis, North America will be the largest market.

Monday, January 11, 2010

2010 Consumer Electronics Industry Outlook

Now that CES is over, here's the forward-looking perspective. The consumer electronics (CE) industry will generate more than $165 billion in U.S. shipment revenues this year, according to the semi-annual industry forecast released by the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA).

Gary Shapiro, President and CEO of the CEA, announced the forecast in his opening remarks at the 2010 International CES.

"2009 is a year none of us wish to repeat and now we look forward to 2010. There is light at the end of the tunnel and it is the bright light of innovation," said Shapiro.

"We are seeing more innovation at this show than at any show in our history. There are a record number of new exhibitors, more than 330, among the 2,500 companies showcasing the next generation of technology."

The CE industry will see positive revenue growth in 2010 after a revenue decline in 2009. Total industry shipment revenues fell an estimated 7.8 percent in 2009 although unit volume increased nearly ten percent for the year as consumers bought electronics at a value, limiting industry revenues.

As the economy begins its slow recovery from the recession, the CE industry will lead the way as popular product categories are poised for growth in 2010. The mobile handset category is expected to have a strong 2010, becoming the primary revenue driver for the industry.

Smartphones continue to lead the way, generating nearly $17 billion in shipment revenue and more than 52 million unit sales in 2010. Smartphones comprise more than 30 percent of total mobile phone shipments, with that number increasing in the years ahead.

Sales of computers are also expected to be a bright spot in 2010 as the category continues to be driven by the popularity of netbooks. Netbook sales more than doubled in 2009 as the computer category showed stronger sales than previous forecasts predicted. In 2010, more than 30 million notebooks will be sold, generating more than $14 billion in revenue.

"Smartphones and netbooks are primed for strong growth as consumers continue to seek efficient, portable devices," said Steve Koenig, CEA's director of industry analysis. "With more consumers seeking content anywhere, anytime, the demand for products facilitating these experiences will drive purchases going forward."

Blu-ray players will continue to grow after a strong 2009. Blu-ray unit sales rose 155 percent in 2009 with more than seven million units being sold, generating more than $1 billion in revenue. The trend will continue in 2010, with unit sales projected to top 11.5 million and revenues to increase to $1.4 billion.

The television market has been one of the primary revenue drivers the past several years as consumers made the transition to high-definition, flat-panel sets. Unit sales will climb to more than 37 million in 2010 but price drops will cause display revenue to decline slightly to $22 billion.

Innovation in TV displays, such as 3D, Internet connectivity and OLED technology, will continue to grow and help maintain revenue in the display category. CEA projects sales of more than 4 million 3D television sets in 2010.

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Broadband Wireless Internet-enabled Devices


The portability of content from one digital device to another represents the future of media consumption, according to the latest assessment by eMarketer. The market is constantly shifting, due to changing user preferences and an evolving consumer electronics landscape.

Device manufacturers, marketers and content publishers are all challenged to make digital content available anywhere, anytime and on any user preferred device.

"Even as the landscape evolves, the market for portable electronics is growing unabated," said Noah Elkin, eMarketer senior analyst.

Morgan Stanley expects high-speed wireless Internet-enabled device shipments to more than double worldwide between 2009 and 2013. Other researchers and analysts agree that the mobile device market will continue its upward trajectory.

"From their in-home television and entertainment networks, consumers have grown accustomed to an on-demand culture," said Mr. Elkin.

The combination of always-on devices and broadband networks is helping extend that culture outside the home. For the transition to be successful, devices must provide a good user experience, and content delivery needs to be immediate and seamless.

Netbook PCs in particular have struck a chord with buyers -- especially attractive in a year of financial cut-backs. DisplaySearch data shows netbooks were the only portable PC segment to see year-over-year revenue growth worldwide -- rising a strong 264 percent from Q2 2008 to Q2 2009.

In addition, e-readers, smartphones, media players, gaming devices and tablet PCs are also a major part of the fast-changing world of mobile content consumption.

"Multiple devices, numerous access modes and shifting consumer preferences mean marketers and content owners cannot afford to put all their eggs in one basket," cautioned Mr. Elkin.

Until formats and device platforms become more established, multi-mode, multi-device support remains a must. Clearly, this is an area where continued development of industry-wide standards would help to simplify and enhance the user experience.

Friday, January 08, 2010

Mainstream Platforms Enable OTT Adoption

According to the latest market study by The Diffusion Group (TDG), by 2014 more than 360 million households worldwide will be enabled for Over-the-Top (OTT) video services on their TV set -- with more than half actively adopting OTT services.

"A key reason why many OTT efforts have failed (and will continue to do so) is their dependence on proprietary single-function hardware paid for by consumers," notes Colin Dixon, managing partner at TDG.

"In order to grow a profitable base of service users, OTT operators must either give the hardware away for little to nothing or leverage other Internet-enabled platforms as a conduit."

TDG believes that the latter approach is preferable, yet its success hinges on the rate at which these Internet-enabled mainstream platforms multiply. Clearly, that's a factor OTT providers can't easily predict or control.

Dixon notes that a number of companies -- including Netflix and the BBC -- have been embedding their service software in a variety of retail video platforms and are enjoying some early success.

As normal replacement cycles unfold over the next five years, and as CE manufacturers accelerate their shift to embedded solutions, the number of households with at least one Internet-enabled living room video platform will grow rapidly.

Once again, TDG forecasts the number of broadband-enabled TV households -- those with the basic infrastructure to enjoy OTT video services -- will grow from 130 million in 2009 to more than 360 million in 2014.

The number of active OTT households -- those that put this IP Video infrastructure to use -- will grow from 40 million in 2009 to 170 million in 2014.

TDG's latest digital media analysis, "Broadband-Enabled TV: Evolution of OTT Hardware Platforms" is the second in a two-part report series by Colin Dixon on the emerging opportunities associated with Over-the-Top video services.

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Test: Perceived Value of High-Quality Content

Recently, Nielsen conducted a global survey of more than 27,000 consumers in 54 countries to examine attitudes about paying for online content -- and to determine which content types people were most willing to buy.

The study findings uncovered that consumers are either "willing to pay" for online content, or are "open to increased advertising" by content sponsors -- but that attitudes vary greatly by geography, demographics and content type.

Nielsen believes that people have therefore shown a higher propensity to pay for music, movies, games and "professionally produced" video -- in contrast to podcasts, blogs or consumer generated video.

Nielsen says this now validates that people still place more value on content produced by "professionals" than by others. Likewise, people are more inclined to buy what they already pay for, rather than on what they currently get for free.

Moreover, Nielsen concludes that while people are more willing to pay for professional content than the "amateur" equivalent, the reality shouldn't be taken for granted -- because not all content is created equal.

I think that we're all agreed, on the last part. Perceived quality matters.

However, I'm wondering if Nielsen has perhaps misinterpreted the findings. Meaning, people are likely willing to pay for what they consider to be high-quality content, regardless of the status of the producer.

In fact, if someone is prepared to pay you for content that you produce, then surely by definition you are a professional. Most entrepreneurs, and especially the young ones, might find the traditional definition of a "professional content producer" to be somewhat obsolete.

Over time, I believe that big-media companies may easily make erroneous assumptions about their potential customer's propensity to buy what they produce. Unfortunately, misinterpreted market research may contribute to their misguided belief that people place a high value on all their content.

Meanwhile, Rupert Murdoch apparently feels compelled to test his hypothesis -- that people will pay him when he removes his content from the current advertiser-supported or sponsor-supported online business model. Once it's put to the test, this will be a very illuminating experiment.

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Internet-enabled TV Drives IP Video Adoption

According to the latest market study by comScore, more than 170 million U.S. Internet users watched online video during November 2009. Nearly 31 billion videos were viewed during the month, and Google Web sites accounting for 39 percent of all videos viewed online in the U.S. market.

Google continued to rank as the top U.S. video property in November -- as it delivered 12.2 billion videos viewed with YouTube.com, accounting for nearly 99 percent of all videos viewed. Hulu ranked second with 924 million videos viewed (3.0 percent) followed by Viacom Digital with 500 million (1.6 percent) and Microsoft Sites with 480 million (1.5 percent).

More than 170 million viewers watched an average of 182 videos per viewer during the month of November. Google attracted 129 million unique viewers during the month (94.7 videos per viewer), followed by Yahoo! with more than 55 million viewers (8.5 videos per viewer) and Fox Interactive Media with 50 million viewers (8.9 videos per viewer). The average Hulu viewer watched 21.1 videos.

In November, Tremor Media ranked as the number one video ad network with a potential reach of 85 million viewers -- or 49.8 percent of the total viewing audience. Advertising.com Video Network ranked second with a potential reach of 80 million viewers (47.1 percent penetration) followed by YuMe Video Network with 73 million viewers (43.0 percent).

I predict that the upcoming end of 2009 results will likely set the benchmark for the era before an Internet-enabled TV becomes a mainstream product. In 2010, given the CE vendor announcements at CES this week, I'd anticipate that IP Video consumption will accelerate again -- as the next wave of consumers take advantage of the ease-of-use gained by a new Internet-ready TV.

Other highlights from the comScore study include:

- The top video ad networks in terms of their actual reach delivered were: Tremor Media Video Network with 20.0 percent penetration of online video viewers, BBE with 17.5 percent, and BrightRoll Video Network with 16.6 percent.

- 84.8 percent of the total U.S. Internet audience viewed online video.

- The average online video viewer watched 12.2 hours of video.

- 128.1 million viewers watched more than 12 billion videos on YouTube.com (94.3 videos per viewer).

- 38.6 million viewers watched 333.4 million videos on MySpace.com (8.6 videos per viewer).

- The average Hulu viewer watched 21.1 videos, totaling 2.1 hours of videos per viewer.

- The duration of the average online video was 4.0 minutes.

Tuesday, January 05, 2010

Apps Availability is part of Smartphone Choice

Google announced the most anticipated mobile phone since the Apple iPhone launch. The Nexus One is based on Google's open source mobile operating system (Android), and their OS has clearly received strong support from manufacturers and mobile operators.

In-Stat says that it believes the smartphone stakes are high. Gone are the days when the basis of competition was solely defined by hardware. Software is becoming the key in defining the user experience. However, the focus is now shifting from the OS to the device application software.

In fact, enabling third-party applications has increased importance in the competitive mobile OS landscape. In-stat believes that when independent software developers create or port-over applications, that can greatly impact the success of the handset platform and the market opportunity for the carrier.

If, however, a particular mobile phone OS does not garner enough independent developer support, then the result could be disastrous.

In fact, as mentioned in a recent comScore market study, the RIM Blackberry series of devices are not only the smartphones with the most overall adoption thus far, they're also the first choice for many people who intend to buy a smartphone.

I recently purchased a BlackBerry Storm for our daughter, and the availability of useful business apps was a key part of the selection criteria. BTW, one thing people tend to forget is that the replacement cost of a subsidized smartphone is significant -- about $500+ on average.

They are very delicate handheld devices, therefore our first accessory selection was a protective case -- the BlackBerry Storm Commuter Case from OtterBox. It offers full protection, without the bulk. The exposed silicone corners dissipate impact away from the phone for additional bump and shock protection and the smooth outer layer allows the case to easily slide into your pocket or purse.

I've been using a iPod Nano case from OtterBox for more than six months, and have been pleased with the results -- having dropped the Nano on concrete floors, without damage.

Monday, January 04, 2010

Handheld Device Convergence Slow Progress

Despite the increasing overlap between mobile phone functionality and other handheld devices, people are still purchasing standalone cameras, satellite navigation, personal media and handheld gaming devices, according to the latest market study by Futuresource Consulting.

"Right now, the functionality and quality of dedicated products can far exceed that of multi-function gadgets," says David Luu, Senior Market Analyst at Futuresource.

Features like optical zoom and image stabilization in cameras or embedded maps in personal navigation devices are seen as key value-add differentiators, and still drive consumers to make that purchase. However, it won't be long before the continued rise of the smartphone will have a major impact on the handheld device landscape.

Last year, mobile phone ownership exceeded four billion users -- which equates to nearly 60 percent of the world's population. And in the face of a handset market which is slowing on the whole, smartphone sales are rising fast, with our year-end forecasts for 2009 showing smartphone sales representing 17 percent of total handset shipments.

By 2013, more than one billion people will own a smartphone.

The smartphone segment consists of a group of highly disruptive converged devices, with programmable OS, continually improving functionality, wireless networking capabilities and a younger reach that will hinder the growth of dedicated devices.

Standalone products that survive will be increasingly differentiated by their form factor (a smartphone user may want to own a miniaturised media player for use when exercising, for example) and their unique attributes (such as the use of e-ink for electronic books, which can display large areas of static text while drawing very little or no power).

"The iPhone raised the bar in terms of smartphone impact, especially for media players and casual gaming," says Luu. "Continued smartphone development and the trend towards cloud computing may also start to nibble away at the laptop and netbook market, but it's unlikely we'll see any impact here for three to four years at least."

Inherent limitations for the smartphone are screen size, lack of full size keyboard, storage shortfalls and battery life, which is why consumers see computers as essential products to own today. Shorter term we're going to experience the rise of the "apps" market, especially for games and entertainment.

Saturday, January 02, 2010

Regional Differences in Social Network Activity


eMarketer reports that recent worldwide survey results data from Trendstream and Lightspeed Research highlights the regional market differences between various user-generated content activities of Internet users.

In the U.S., managing a social network profile was the top online user-generated content activity, participated in by 44.2 percent of Web users. This was followed closely by uploading photos. Uploading video, blogging and microblogging were significantly less popular.

By comparison, Web users in the UK and Canada had similar rates of social network use and photo-sharing, and also tapered off dramatically when comparing more advanced user-generated content activities.

In contrast, Japan has very different participation characteristics in user-generated content activities. Much lower percentages of Web users manage social network profiles or upload photos, for example.

The Global Web Index report notes that this is actually a sign of advanced user behavior. The survey measured only activities conducted on a PC, and in Japan, many such activities are now likely on a mobile smartphone. For example, 34 percent of Japanese users accessed social networks only via mobile during the month of the study.

Meanwhile, user participation was generally high in China, where overall Internet penetration is only 29.6 percent -- according to eMarketer current estimates. A majority of users uploaded photos, and nearly one-half had a blog. More than one-fifth used a microblogging service -- far ahead of the other markets surveyed.

Trendstream and Lightspeed noted that microblogging usage was still low across all markets, despite the hype surrounding popular services such as Twitter. The 7 percent of surveyed U.S. users participating in microblogging was somewhat lower than eMarketer's estimate of 11.1 percent Twitter penetration this year.

Friday, January 01, 2010

U.S. Smartphone Market Segmentation Shifts

According to a comScore market study, consumer awareness of Google's Android is growing rapidly. Seventeen percent of American consumers in the market for a smartphone are considering the purchase of an android-supported device in next three months, compared to 20 percent indicating they plan to purchase an iPhone.

"With handsets on multiple carriers, from multiple manufacturers, and numerous Android device models expected to be in the U.S. market by January, the Android platform is rapidly shaking up the smartphone market," said Mark Donovan, comScore senior vice president of mobile.

While iPhone continues to set the bar with its App Store and passionate user base, and Blackberry remains the leader among the business set, Android is clearly gaining momentum among developers and consumers.

RIM Blackberry Still the Market Leader

Overall, however, of those people who said they intend to purchase a smartphone, more chose from the Blackberry family of smartphone devices than any other type, by far (49 percent).

Moreover, although Android's share of the smartphone market is relatively small, it has quickly doubled in the past year -- to 3.5 percent in October 2009.

Users of the Apple iPhone were most likely to consume mobile media, with 94 percent of users doing so in September 2009, while 92 percent of Android device users, predominantly T-Mobile G1 users, engaged in mobile media activities -- 12 percentage points higher than an average smartphone user.

Apple and Android users were equally likely to engage with news via their browser and nearly identical in their mobile application engagement. Email was the only major activity in which iPhone users (87 percent) were far more likely to participate than Android users (63 percent).

In August 2009, just 22 percent of mobile users had heard of the Google Android, while in November 2009 this figure had reached 37 percent, largely prompted by the Verizon Droid advertising campaign launched in the fall.

Google Android is Gaining Momentum

The comScore study found that not only is general awareness increasing about Android, but intent to purchase an Android-supported device is also increasing among mobile phone users.

When mobile users were asked in November 2009 which phone they planned to buy in the next three months, 17 percent of respondents in the market for a new smartphone said they planned to purchase an Android-supported device, with 8 percent of those planning to purchase a Verizon Droid, compared to 20 percent of respondents who said they planned to purchase an iPhone during that same time period.

In comparison, when survey respondents answered this same question in August 2009, only 7 percent indicated an intent to purchase either the T-Mobile G1 or the T-Mobile MyTouch -- which were the only Android-supported phones available at the time -- while 21 percent of respondents planned to purchase an iPhone in the next three months.