Americans like football, MySpace, and text messaging. Canadians like hockey, Facebook, and playing the lottery. What do they have in common? Both can't get enough of the Internet.
These are some of the key findings from an Ipsos study that investigated the behaviors, lifestyles and habits of American and Canadian young adults ages 18-34, the emerging market of young consumers.
"Bombarded by changing technology and a barrage of marketing messages, North American young adults are living in a culture unlike anything we've seen before," says Paul Lauzon, Senior Vice President with Ipsos Reid.
But when it comes to the way Americans and Canadians in the 18-34 year-old age group play, communicate, and use media, it is a sure bet there are cultural differences and nuances marketers need to understand to better reach this audience.
When asked about their leisure activity time, Americans and Canadians have a clear affinity for the Internet and television.
Young adults in both countries reported nearly an identical amount of time spent on the Internet each week: Americans reported being actively connected to the Internet an average of 28 hours per week; Canadians reported being connected one hour less over the same time frame.
On a daily average, Americans in the age group watch about an hour more television per day than Canadians. On weekdays, Americans reported watching an average of 5.9 hours per day, Canadians watched 4.8 hours. On weekends, Americans watched an average of 5.5 hours, Canadians watched 4.6 hours.
When comparing the lottery and gambling habits, and interest of American and Canadian young adults, some interesting differences unfold.
Canadians are more apt to play the lottery than Americans. In the past year, 80 percent of Canadians ages 18-34 have played a lottery game. In the United States, only 63 percent of Americans in the same age bracket have played lottery games.
That being the case, Americans are more interested in playing lottery games on the Internet than Canadians. When asked, almost half (46 percent) of Americans within the group said they would be interested in playing lottery games in the Internet. Only less than a third (31 percent) of their Canadian counterparts expressed an interest.
Americans are currently more likely to play games on the Internet for real money -- 28 vs. 20 percent in Canada. Yet American young adults are more likely to perceive online gambling as illegal than those in Canada -- 31 vs. 19 percent.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Enterprise Online Community Apps Demand
Consumer social networks are mainstream applications, so people are now demanding similar applications in the workplace that provide personalized online experiences for creating, publishing, locating, and sharing content internally and externally with colleagues, customers, and partners.
If these applications are not provided by an IT organization, IDC observes that employees are bringing them in through their own initiatives. This emerging business need has created a suddenly crowded market of online community software providers aiming to make the business world a more social place.
IDC forecasts that the U.S. online community software market will grow from $278.4 million in 2008 to $1.6 billion in 2013 at a CAGR of 41.8 percent. While the U.S. online community software market was not immune to the recession, dominant vendors in this space reported double-digit growth rates in 2008 and higher-than-expected growth in the first half of 2009.
Overall, the U.S. online community software market doubled in revenue from $135.3 million in 2007 to $278.4 million in 2008 based on the promise of online community software to help organizations deepen relationships with customers and innovate at much faster speeds.
The overall growth rate for U.S. online community software did not meet expectations for 2008 due to the tough economy and drastic cuts in marketing budgets. However, IDC expects a resurgence of growth in 2010 as the economy recovers, more traditional enterprise players enter this market, and methods for measuring return on investment become more standardized.
Still, gaps in adoption will remain based on the failure among some organizations to adjust to these more transparent ways of operating, and some community initiatives will fail due to the lack of understanding about the human capital investments required by the community management model.
"The lesson that technology is only as good as its user will be a hard lesson learned for many companies needing to focus more on community strategy and management than on the technology solution," says Caroline Dangson, IDC research analyst.
Online community software enables new ways of working that require a shift in mindset and culture. IDC finds that traditional corporate culture acts as a major barrier to adoption today, even more so than the economic downturn.
If these applications are not provided by an IT organization, IDC observes that employees are bringing them in through their own initiatives. This emerging business need has created a suddenly crowded market of online community software providers aiming to make the business world a more social place.
IDC forecasts that the U.S. online community software market will grow from $278.4 million in 2008 to $1.6 billion in 2013 at a CAGR of 41.8 percent. While the U.S. online community software market was not immune to the recession, dominant vendors in this space reported double-digit growth rates in 2008 and higher-than-expected growth in the first half of 2009.
Overall, the U.S. online community software market doubled in revenue from $135.3 million in 2007 to $278.4 million in 2008 based on the promise of online community software to help organizations deepen relationships with customers and innovate at much faster speeds.
The overall growth rate for U.S. online community software did not meet expectations for 2008 due to the tough economy and drastic cuts in marketing budgets. However, IDC expects a resurgence of growth in 2010 as the economy recovers, more traditional enterprise players enter this market, and methods for measuring return on investment become more standardized.
Still, gaps in adoption will remain based on the failure among some organizations to adjust to these more transparent ways of operating, and some community initiatives will fail due to the lack of understanding about the human capital investments required by the community management model.
"The lesson that technology is only as good as its user will be a hard lesson learned for many companies needing to focus more on community strategy and management than on the technology solution," says Caroline Dangson, IDC research analyst.
Online community software enables new ways of working that require a shift in mindset and culture. IDC finds that traditional corporate culture acts as a major barrier to adoption today, even more so than the economic downturn.
Monday, September 28, 2009
OTT Innovators Push Incumbents to Evolve
The typical user experience for pay-TV services hasn't changed much over the years. That's all about to change, thanks to much needed innovation from OTT providers. Next-generation Interactive Program Guides (IPG) are finally emerging that help all consumers navigate through a proliferation of video content.
As Internet Content and User Generated Content (UGC) migrate onto TVs and other video-capable devices, IPGs are transforming into Content and Service Discovery Guides (CSDGs), according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
Consumers are embracing a growing array of video options. Consumers demand their choice of display device, content, timing and location. Visionary companies are offering content discovery tools to meet these needs and enable service providers and device manufacturers to offer the best end-user experience.
Two years ago I described my own interpretation of a TV 2.0 user experience. But, the progress has been painfully slow because the incumbents previously had no meaningful competition.
"A truly valuable CSDG will be personalized so that it can automatically limit choices to those that are likely to fit a particular end-user's habits," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.
"It will also have to be intelligent, to be able to search out new things that fit users' viewing patterns, and it will have to constantly evolve to keep up with new content, products, services, features, functions, and applications."
In-Stat's latest market study found the following:
- The IPG market has three revenue segments: one-time licensing fees, recurring fees to update guide data, and advertising. Recurring program guide fees will approach $850 million by 2013.
- In-Stat identified eighteen types of delivery services that may need to acquire EPG, IPG or CSDG solutions.
- Guides used in complex networked applications will need to be DLNA-compliant to "discover" content from in-home devices, and move it among network devices.
- Among the leading companies referenced in the research are: Adobe, Harris, Microsoft, Move Networks, NDS and Rovi.
As Internet Content and User Generated Content (UGC) migrate onto TVs and other video-capable devices, IPGs are transforming into Content and Service Discovery Guides (CSDGs), according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
Consumers are embracing a growing array of video options. Consumers demand their choice of display device, content, timing and location. Visionary companies are offering content discovery tools to meet these needs and enable service providers and device manufacturers to offer the best end-user experience.
Two years ago I described my own interpretation of a TV 2.0 user experience. But, the progress has been painfully slow because the incumbents previously had no meaningful competition.
"A truly valuable CSDG will be personalized so that it can automatically limit choices to those that are likely to fit a particular end-user's habits," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.
"It will also have to be intelligent, to be able to search out new things that fit users' viewing patterns, and it will have to constantly evolve to keep up with new content, products, services, features, functions, and applications."
In-Stat's latest market study found the following:
- The IPG market has three revenue segments: one-time licensing fees, recurring fees to update guide data, and advertising. Recurring program guide fees will approach $850 million by 2013.
- In-Stat identified eighteen types of delivery services that may need to acquire EPG, IPG or CSDG solutions.
- Guides used in complex networked applications will need to be DLNA-compliant to "discover" content from in-home devices, and move it among network devices.
- Among the leading companies referenced in the research are: Adobe, Harris, Microsoft, Move Networks, NDS and Rovi.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Mobile TV Needs a Viable Business Model
Are U.S. consumers really interested in watching television on a mobile device? eMarketer reports that according to data from Mediamark Research & Intelligence (MRI), more than one-fifth of U.S. mobile phone or PDA users are interested in watching live TV on their mobile device.
However, the overall market study results are very mixed and inconclusive.
Respondents to the research firm's latest market study were even more likely to be interested in watching mobile TV if they indicated that they viewed their mobile device as a source of entertainment -- 46.9 percent of such consumers said so.
When it came to paying for mobile TV services, however, consumers were markedly less enthusiastic. Only 13.5 percent of all respondents said they would pay a subscription fee for mobile TV, and even among respondents who said mobile was a source of entertainment, the figure was just 34.5 percent.
In addition, more than 70 percent of respondents found ads on mobile phones and PDAs annoying, though some were willing to view them in exchange for lower monthly costs.
The report from Infonetics Research predicts 397 million mobile video phones will be sold worldwide in 2013. But the research firm is likewise not optimistic about adoption of pay-TV services.
"A combination of poor macroeconomic conditions, sub par 3G network coverage for streamed video services, and pricing that puts mobile video services out of reach for many consumers is contributing to the lackluster growth of mobile video services around the world," said Jeff Heynen, directing analyst at Infonetics Research.
"While mobile video services are expected to eventually grow significantly, until operators can combine broadcast, on-demand, and side-loading, revenue will remain a drop in the bucket of overall mobile service revenue."
Pyramid Research put paid mobile video subscribers at just 2.5 percent of total mobile subscribers worldwide in 2008. That figure is expected to increase to 8.5 percent by 2014.
Given the time and effort already expended in promoting these offerings, this is clearly an underachieving mobile service business model.
Friday, September 25, 2009
European Portable Electronics Market Growth
Netbook PCs, pocket video camcorders, digital SLR cameras, smartphones, mobile Internet devices and handheld games consoles are fueling growth in the European portable electronics market, according to the latest study by Futuresource Consulting.
The market grew 18 percent in 2008 to reach 155 million units and is forecast to grow a further 7 percent in 2009 to reach close to 170 million units.
The market is growing by an expanding number of users, including younger and older consumers, more females, and less affluent households. Meanwhile, consumers are also replacing their devices more quickly.
As an example, average camera replacement has reduced from 6-8 years to 3-5 years, while personal AV replacement has fallen from 5-7 years to 2-4years.
Another important driver of portable electronics is gifting -- albeit in some European markets more than others -- where it can represent up to 60 percent or 70 percent of annual sales in product categories in certain countries.
Personal electronics gadgets have become a staple and high price ticket present for partners and for older children. Where mothers and spouses need to buy presents during birthday and religious holidays, personal electronics have played an increasingly important role to the extent that they have almost become impulse buys.
The Pocket Video Camcorder (PVC) market grew to 1.6 million units in 2008. This segment has revived the broader camcorder market which had stagnated over recent years, by introducing the younger generation to the camcorder industry, plus all those people who are attracted by the low prices.
The segment has introduced a raft of new video brands to what has been a relatively stable competitive environment -- including the likes of Toshiba, PureDigital (Cisco), Kodak, Creative and Aiptek.
PVCs are exploiting a window of opportunity while mobile phones still need to catch up in terms offering improved video capture, 3 and 3.5G connectivity direct to websites such as YouTube and Flickr, improved battery life and embedded/bundled storage capacities exceeding 1GB.
As mobile phones begin to catch up, sales of PVC are forecast to slow considerably beyond 2010 or 2011. Personally, I believe that PVCs that include an auxiliary microphone jack are likely to become the preferred handheld video device for prosumers and savvy business users. In a noisy environment, like a trade show, you really need an external mic.
The market grew 18 percent in 2008 to reach 155 million units and is forecast to grow a further 7 percent in 2009 to reach close to 170 million units.
The market is growing by an expanding number of users, including younger and older consumers, more females, and less affluent households. Meanwhile, consumers are also replacing their devices more quickly.
As an example, average camera replacement has reduced from 6-8 years to 3-5 years, while personal AV replacement has fallen from 5-7 years to 2-4years.
Another important driver of portable electronics is gifting -- albeit in some European markets more than others -- where it can represent up to 60 percent or 70 percent of annual sales in product categories in certain countries.
Personal electronics gadgets have become a staple and high price ticket present for partners and for older children. Where mothers and spouses need to buy presents during birthday and religious holidays, personal electronics have played an increasingly important role to the extent that they have almost become impulse buys.
The Pocket Video Camcorder (PVC) market grew to 1.6 million units in 2008. This segment has revived the broader camcorder market which had stagnated over recent years, by introducing the younger generation to the camcorder industry, plus all those people who are attracted by the low prices.
The segment has introduced a raft of new video brands to what has been a relatively stable competitive environment -- including the likes of Toshiba, PureDigital (Cisco), Kodak, Creative and Aiptek.
PVCs are exploiting a window of opportunity while mobile phones still need to catch up in terms offering improved video capture, 3 and 3.5G connectivity direct to websites such as YouTube and Flickr, improved battery life and embedded/bundled storage capacities exceeding 1GB.
As mobile phones begin to catch up, sales of PVC are forecast to slow considerably beyond 2010 or 2011. Personally, I believe that PVCs that include an auxiliary microphone jack are likely to become the preferred handheld video device for prosumers and savvy business users. In a noisy environment, like a trade show, you really need an external mic.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Big Decline in North America Landline Phones
Infonetics Research released its latest market share study and forecast report, Residential Voice, Data, and Video Services in North America: a Market Outlook.
Hundreds of service providers market their residential voice, data, and video offerings to consumers. However, the market is dominated by AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast in the U.S., and Bell Canada and Rogers in Canada.
AT&T is the overall market leader with 17 percent of total services revenue.
"With the residential services market forecast to reach $300 billion by 2013, fueled by broadband and video services, we are expecting a hard-fought battle between the telcos and the cable operators," observes Diane Myers, Infonetics Research directing analyst.
Their report includes the top 20 North American residential service providers by revenue and market share, customizable pivot tables, and analysis of overall market conditions for service providers, enterprises, subscribers, and the global economy.
Infonetics market study highlights incude:
- North American service provider revenue from residential voice, video and Internet access services reached $261 billion in 2008 and is expected to grow to $300 billion by 2013.
- By 2011, the video services market will surpass the voice services market, but will be marked by content provider TV programming high costs and slim profit margins.
- Broadband access represents the true growth engine for residential services, with North American revenue growing at a 12 percent average annual rate from 2008 to 2013.
- Comcast and DirecTV are in a tight battle in the residential video services segment, with Comcast holding on to the lead in 2008 by just 2 points.
- Through its FiOS service, Verizon captures the majority of North American pay-TV subscribers (54 percent) in 2008.
- In 2008, wireline Internet access (dial-up, cable broadband, DSL, FTTH) had 64 percent household penetration in North America.
- The percentage of North American households with traditional phone lines (PSTN landline voice service) is forecast to drop from 69 percent in 2007 to 26 percent by 2013, as consumers opt for mobile-only services or VoIP alternatives.
Hundreds of service providers market their residential voice, data, and video offerings to consumers. However, the market is dominated by AT&T, Verizon, and Comcast in the U.S., and Bell Canada and Rogers in Canada.
AT&T is the overall market leader with 17 percent of total services revenue.
"With the residential services market forecast to reach $300 billion by 2013, fueled by broadband and video services, we are expecting a hard-fought battle between the telcos and the cable operators," observes Diane Myers, Infonetics Research directing analyst.
Their report includes the top 20 North American residential service providers by revenue and market share, customizable pivot tables, and analysis of overall market conditions for service providers, enterprises, subscribers, and the global economy.
Infonetics market study highlights incude:
- North American service provider revenue from residential voice, video and Internet access services reached $261 billion in 2008 and is expected to grow to $300 billion by 2013.
- By 2011, the video services market will surpass the voice services market, but will be marked by content provider TV programming high costs and slim profit margins.
- Broadband access represents the true growth engine for residential services, with North American revenue growing at a 12 percent average annual rate from 2008 to 2013.
- Comcast and DirecTV are in a tight battle in the residential video services segment, with Comcast holding on to the lead in 2008 by just 2 points.
- Through its FiOS service, Verizon captures the majority of North American pay-TV subscribers (54 percent) in 2008.
- In 2008, wireline Internet access (dial-up, cable broadband, DSL, FTTH) had 64 percent household penetration in North America.
- The percentage of North American households with traditional phone lines (PSTN landline voice service) is forecast to drop from 69 percent in 2007 to 26 percent by 2013, as consumers opt for mobile-only services or VoIP alternatives.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
IPTV Upside to Drive the UK Pay-TV Market
Pay-television revenue in the U.K. will climb from $6.2 billion in 2009 to $8.2 billion by 2014 as IPTV grows at a CAGR of 26 percent within the forecast period, according to the latest market study by Pyramid Research.
The U.K. communications market is one of Europe's largest and most dynamic markets, expected to generate $47.1 million in revenue for 2009. Like most mature European markets, the major sources of growth, in absolute revenue terms, are mobile data and fixed broadband, notes Andrei Tchadliev, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report.
However, it is expected that IPTV revenue will grow at a CAGR of 26 percent from $75 million in 2009 to $237 million in 2014, while triple-play packages surpass double play, both contributing to the overall growth in the pay-TV market.
The pay-TV market remains dominated by satellite provider Sky with close to 9.9 million subscriptions estimated for 2009, while IPTV remains concentrated to a small share of the market with only 4 percent of total pay-TV households choosing the service.
The breakup of Sky's market control over exclusive sporting events, notably football and premier entertainment content, will likely result in an increase in the share of cable and IPTV as a percentage of pay-TV households.
Tchadliev adds that growth in pay-TV services will also be boosted by the growing popularity of multi-play packages on account of cost.
"We believe that by 2013, triple-play services -- such as fixed voice, broadband, and pay-TV -- will overtake double play," he says. "It is estimated that in 2009, close to 19.4 million households will have signed up for triple-play services, largely on account of the value the offer over stand-alone Internet, voice, mobile, and pay-TV packages."
The U.K. communications market is one of Europe's largest and most dynamic markets, expected to generate $47.1 million in revenue for 2009. Like most mature European markets, the major sources of growth, in absolute revenue terms, are mobile data and fixed broadband, notes Andrei Tchadliev, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report.
However, it is expected that IPTV revenue will grow at a CAGR of 26 percent from $75 million in 2009 to $237 million in 2014, while triple-play packages surpass double play, both contributing to the overall growth in the pay-TV market.
The pay-TV market remains dominated by satellite provider Sky with close to 9.9 million subscriptions estimated for 2009, while IPTV remains concentrated to a small share of the market with only 4 percent of total pay-TV households choosing the service.
The breakup of Sky's market control over exclusive sporting events, notably football and premier entertainment content, will likely result in an increase in the share of cable and IPTV as a percentage of pay-TV households.
Tchadliev adds that growth in pay-TV services will also be boosted by the growing popularity of multi-play packages on account of cost.
"We believe that by 2013, triple-play services -- such as fixed voice, broadband, and pay-TV -- will overtake double play," he says. "It is estimated that in 2009, close to 19.4 million households will have signed up for triple-play services, largely on account of the value the offer over stand-alone Internet, voice, mobile, and pay-TV packages."
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Content Owners Preparing for OTT Windfall
According to a market study by The Diffusion Group (TDG), revenue from the delivery of Internet video to a TV set will grow nearly six-fold in the next five years, from approximately $1 billion in 2009 to $5.7 billion in 2014.
Colin Dixon, TDG senior partner, says that in 2009, pay-per-view services will account for 96 percent of global Over-the-Top (OTT) revenue, leaving subscription revenue with only 4 percent of the revenue mix. By 2014, however, annual OTT subscription revenue will have grown 50-fold and account for 31 percent of global revenue.
Dixon points to current hardware trends as fueling this growth, specifically the ongoing shift to broadband-enabled TVs and the rapid diffusion of ancillary web-enabled platforms such as game consoles, Blu-ray players, and hybrid set-top boxes.
Widespread penetration of such platforms will set the stage for a rapid uptake of Internet-to-TV video services, both pay-per-view and subscription-based.
As these platforms more widely diffuse and consumers become more comfortable with using Internet-based TV services, the market will be primed for the arrival of full-fledged PayTV replacement services.
Subsequently, TDG expects major OTT service announcements in virtually all global regions in 2010 and 2011, both in terms of stand-alone OTT and hybrid PayTV/OTT TV services, both of which will help fuel growth in OTT subscription revenue to $1.8 billion worldwide by 2014.
At that time, North America will account for the vast majority of global OTT subscription revenue ($830 million) followed by Asia ($490 million), and Europe ($407 million). Other global regions will collectively account for only $60 million of this total.
The owners of video content are determined to gain increased profits from offering direct-to-consumer services -- essentially by-passing their cable TV and IPTV distribution channel partners. As an example, ZillionTV -- the Internet TV startup backed by Hollywood's biggest movie studios -- is following in Hulu's footsteps and has stated its intent to now pursue consumers directly.
Furthermore, consumer electronics companies, that manufacture flat screen TVs, will continue to incorporate new features that are intended to remove the need for hybrid set-top boxes -- we should learn more about this trend at the upcoming CES in January.
Colin Dixon, TDG senior partner, says that in 2009, pay-per-view services will account for 96 percent of global Over-the-Top (OTT) revenue, leaving subscription revenue with only 4 percent of the revenue mix. By 2014, however, annual OTT subscription revenue will have grown 50-fold and account for 31 percent of global revenue.
Dixon points to current hardware trends as fueling this growth, specifically the ongoing shift to broadband-enabled TVs and the rapid diffusion of ancillary web-enabled platforms such as game consoles, Blu-ray players, and hybrid set-top boxes.
Widespread penetration of such platforms will set the stage for a rapid uptake of Internet-to-TV video services, both pay-per-view and subscription-based.
As these platforms more widely diffuse and consumers become more comfortable with using Internet-based TV services, the market will be primed for the arrival of full-fledged PayTV replacement services.
Subsequently, TDG expects major OTT service announcements in virtually all global regions in 2010 and 2011, both in terms of stand-alone OTT and hybrid PayTV/OTT TV services, both of which will help fuel growth in OTT subscription revenue to $1.8 billion worldwide by 2014.
At that time, North America will account for the vast majority of global OTT subscription revenue ($830 million) followed by Asia ($490 million), and Europe ($407 million). Other global regions will collectively account for only $60 million of this total.
The owners of video content are determined to gain increased profits from offering direct-to-consumer services -- essentially by-passing their cable TV and IPTV distribution channel partners. As an example, ZillionTV -- the Internet TV startup backed by Hollywood's biggest movie studios -- is following in Hulu's footsteps and has stated its intent to now pursue consumers directly.
Furthermore, consumer electronics companies, that manufacture flat screen TVs, will continue to incorporate new features that are intended to remove the need for hybrid set-top boxes -- we should learn more about this trend at the upcoming CES in January.
Monday, September 21, 2009
Asia-Pac Leads Mobile Broadband Services
Infonetics Research released a new market size and forecast report, Mobile Services and Subscribers Market Outlook: Voice, SMS/MMS, and Broadband.
"There is no question that mobile broadband services represent the next big wave of revenue for mobile operators. But make no mistake: voice service is not going away and will keep its lion's share of operator revenue for the foreseeable future, even as mobile operators diversify revenue streams," said Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure at Infonetics Research.
Meanwhile, here in the U.S., the FCC chairman will propose new rules and has called for a review of network management practices across all communications platforms -- including wireless networks -- which have come under fire for allegedly blocking voice services that compete with mobile service provider offerings.
The Infonetics market study highlights include:
- Revenue service providers collect from cellular services reached $624 billion in 2008 (up 13 percent from 2007), and is expected to top $877 billion by 2013.
- Between 2009 and 2013, worldwide mobile broadband service revenue will more than double.
- While service provider revenue from mobile broadband and SMS/MMS (text messaging and multimedia messaging) services is growing rapidly, voice service continues to make up the large majority of service provider revenue.
- Voice service revenue will grow slowly through 2013, driven by continuing mobile subscriber growth in developing countries and the gradual move from fixed to mobile voice in developed countries.
- LTE service revenue is forecast to grow fast, reaching $41.7 billion in 2013, with the majority coming from North America by 2012, due to Verizon's then AT&T’s LTE deployments.
- Once again, Asia-Pacific leads the mobile broadband race, led by early 3G adopters in Australia, Japan, and South Korea.
- By 2013, W-CDMA/HSPA service revenue will be almost 5 times that of CDMA 1xEV-DO, as the majority of worldwide mobile subscribers are on GSM networks.
- The number of mobile broadband subscribers is forecast by Infonetics to reach 1 billion by 2013.
"There is no question that mobile broadband services represent the next big wave of revenue for mobile operators. But make no mistake: voice service is not going away and will keep its lion's share of operator revenue for the foreseeable future, even as mobile operators diversify revenue streams," said Stéphane Téral, principal analyst for mobile and FMC infrastructure at Infonetics Research.
Meanwhile, here in the U.S., the FCC chairman will propose new rules and has called for a review of network management practices across all communications platforms -- including wireless networks -- which have come under fire for allegedly blocking voice services that compete with mobile service provider offerings.
The Infonetics market study highlights include:
- Revenue service providers collect from cellular services reached $624 billion in 2008 (up 13 percent from 2007), and is expected to top $877 billion by 2013.
- Between 2009 and 2013, worldwide mobile broadband service revenue will more than double.
- While service provider revenue from mobile broadband and SMS/MMS (text messaging and multimedia messaging) services is growing rapidly, voice service continues to make up the large majority of service provider revenue.
- Voice service revenue will grow slowly through 2013, driven by continuing mobile subscriber growth in developing countries and the gradual move from fixed to mobile voice in developed countries.
- LTE service revenue is forecast to grow fast, reaching $41.7 billion in 2013, with the majority coming from North America by 2012, due to Verizon's then AT&T’s LTE deployments.
- Once again, Asia-Pacific leads the mobile broadband race, led by early 3G adopters in Australia, Japan, and South Korea.
- By 2013, W-CDMA/HSPA service revenue will be almost 5 times that of CDMA 1xEV-DO, as the majority of worldwide mobile subscribers are on GSM networks.
- The number of mobile broadband subscribers is forecast by Infonetics to reach 1 billion by 2013.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Why the Internet Radio Industry Will Blossom
According to eMarketer, the U.S. terrestrial radio industry is in deep financially trouble. Many of the country's largest national broadcasters are on the verge of bankruptcy, and the Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB) announced that Q1 2009 was the worst quarter in its history.
eMarketer predicts the radio industry will see double-digit losses in advertising spending this year alone, with terrestrial radio bringing in $14.5 billion in ad revenues in 2009, a drop of 18 percent from 2008 levels. No surprise, when you consider that car dealers have been the primary commercial radio advertiser.
In contrast, the Internet radio (audio streaming) industry are positioning themselves to take advantage of the shift in advertising spend. Even in this tough economy, Internet radio is growing ad revenues year over year and is one of the fastest-growing online media categories.
Attractive demographics (affluent listeners) and a connected audience will prove increasingly appealing to advertisers as they look for fresh channels to reach consumers.
ZenithOptimedia reports that in 2009, advertisers will spend $260 million on Internet radio and another $28 million on podcasting for a combined total of $288 million, up 28 percent from 2008. By 2011, that combined figure will reach nearly $394 million.
Though Internet radio listeners are still relatively few, millions of Americans already listen to radio online from a desktop computer, laptop or mobile phone. Arbitron and Edison Research reported in April that 42 million Americans ages 12 and over streamed online radio in a given week, up from 33 million in 2008.
That boosted current listener rates to 17 percent -- after being mired in the range of 11 to 13 percent in recent years.
For marketers, the rise of Internet radio means more targeted advertising and a more educated audience with higher income and a greater chance of being employed. Mobile will bring still more opportunities by offering streaming radio on the go via phones and other connected portable devices.
Friday, September 18, 2009
Mobile VoIP is an Opportunity, Not a Threat
Mobile Voice over IP (VoIP) is moving beyond its initial benefit, as a preferred approach to make inexpensive international calls from a mobile device, according to the latest In-Stat market study.
While Mobile VoIP still poses a potential threat to mobile operator voice revenue, it also represents a dynamic new capability that promises numerous applications. In-Stat projects that by 2013 Mobile VoIP applications will generate annual revenues of $32.2 billion, driven by over 278 million registered users worldwide.
One new application integrates Mobile VoIP into a unified mobile interface to social networking sites. In another new development, MVNOs and 3G operators without legacy networks are using Mobile VoIP to more cost effectively add voice to data offerings. In yet another scenario, a few carriers are using a form of Mobile VoIP, UMA, to support better indoor coverage and off-load macro networks.
"Applications such as Skype and Vonage have influenced users to think of voice as a data application," says Frank Dickson, In-Stat analyst. "The increasing penetration of Wi-Fi in mobile devices was the beach-head that Mobile VoIP applications needed."
As user habits are being shaped by rich on-line communication experiences, mobile service provider control over devices and data applications is decreasing. Mobile carrier attempts to slow the spread of on-line Mobile VoIP are also proving to be pointless.
Therefore, why not embrace this new trend, as an upside revenue opportunity?
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Activities associated with early Mobile VoIP successes are likely to influence LTE operator voice plans in ways that potentially favor IMS.
- While the EMEA region has more Mobile VoIP related revenue currently, Asia Pacific will be the largest regional market by 2013.
- Dual-mode handsets will approach nearly 400 Million units shipped in 2013.
- Revenue and users associated with Mobile VoIP will be distributed among online Mobile VoIP services, 3G-Based Mobile VoIP offerings, and WiMAX/LTE 4G Mobile VoIP offerings.
While Mobile VoIP still poses a potential threat to mobile operator voice revenue, it also represents a dynamic new capability that promises numerous applications. In-Stat projects that by 2013 Mobile VoIP applications will generate annual revenues of $32.2 billion, driven by over 278 million registered users worldwide.
One new application integrates Mobile VoIP into a unified mobile interface to social networking sites. In another new development, MVNOs and 3G operators without legacy networks are using Mobile VoIP to more cost effectively add voice to data offerings. In yet another scenario, a few carriers are using a form of Mobile VoIP, UMA, to support better indoor coverage and off-load macro networks.
"Applications such as Skype and Vonage have influenced users to think of voice as a data application," says Frank Dickson, In-Stat analyst. "The increasing penetration of Wi-Fi in mobile devices was the beach-head that Mobile VoIP applications needed."
As user habits are being shaped by rich on-line communication experiences, mobile service provider control over devices and data applications is decreasing. Mobile carrier attempts to slow the spread of on-line Mobile VoIP are also proving to be pointless.
Therefore, why not embrace this new trend, as an upside revenue opportunity?
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Activities associated with early Mobile VoIP successes are likely to influence LTE operator voice plans in ways that potentially favor IMS.
- While the EMEA region has more Mobile VoIP related revenue currently, Asia Pacific will be the largest regional market by 2013.
- Dual-mode handsets will approach nearly 400 Million units shipped in 2013.
- Revenue and users associated with Mobile VoIP will be distributed among online Mobile VoIP services, 3G-Based Mobile VoIP offerings, and WiMAX/LTE 4G Mobile VoIP offerings.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
WiMAX Subscribers Have High Expectations
WiMAX operators are departing from the current cellular phone device model, according to Senza Fili Consulting. Operators are pushing vendors to provide powerful, interoperable, and affordable devices that give subscribers the freedom to choose, plus the ability to effortlessly register them to any network.
"WiMAX operators are exerting substantial pressure on vendors to ensure that they have the devices they need, at the right price, supporting the applications and features that subscribers demand," said Monica Paolini, Senza Fili Consulting.
At the same time, operators are preparing their networks to host a wide range of mobile devices that support multiple wireless interfaces, frequencies and form factors.
Based on data from a recent WiMAX Forum survey, the report shows that operators are piecing together a wise, carefully planned device strategy that will enable them to offer core services at launch and expand the subscriber choice to a wide range of innovative services.
To succeed, this retail model requires out-of-the-box interoperability among vendors and certified network equipment and user devices.
"The data collected in this survey clearly demonstrates the need for WiMAX Forum certification of subscriber devices," said XJ Wang, Sr. Director of Marketing at WiMAX Forum. "The interoperability benefit that the certification process provides allows operators to completely revolutionize their device distribution model from the outdated cellular model, to a new model for broadband wireless Internet."
The survey also revealed a great interest in roaming and multi-mode devices. In particular, WiMAX operators expect WiMAX devices to support complementary 2G/3G GSM and Wi-Fi interfaces.
"WiMAX operators need to ensure seamless service and a great user experience from day one," said Paolini. "WiMAX subscribers have high expectations, and initial data shows that they are heavy users. They expect all the reliability and coverage footprint of 2G/3G services, but with the speed and freedom that WiMAX brings to the table."
"WiMAX operators are exerting substantial pressure on vendors to ensure that they have the devices they need, at the right price, supporting the applications and features that subscribers demand," said Monica Paolini, Senza Fili Consulting.
At the same time, operators are preparing their networks to host a wide range of mobile devices that support multiple wireless interfaces, frequencies and form factors.
Based on data from a recent WiMAX Forum survey, the report shows that operators are piecing together a wise, carefully planned device strategy that will enable them to offer core services at launch and expand the subscriber choice to a wide range of innovative services.
To succeed, this retail model requires out-of-the-box interoperability among vendors and certified network equipment and user devices.
"The data collected in this survey clearly demonstrates the need for WiMAX Forum certification of subscriber devices," said XJ Wang, Sr. Director of Marketing at WiMAX Forum. "The interoperability benefit that the certification process provides allows operators to completely revolutionize their device distribution model from the outdated cellular model, to a new model for broadband wireless Internet."
The survey also revealed a great interest in roaming and multi-mode devices. In particular, WiMAX operators expect WiMAX devices to support complementary 2G/3G GSM and Wi-Fi interfaces.
"WiMAX operators need to ensure seamless service and a great user experience from day one," said Paolini. "WiMAX subscribers have high expectations, and initial data shows that they are heavy users. They expect all the reliability and coverage footprint of 2G/3G services, but with the speed and freedom that WiMAX brings to the table."
Wednesday, September 16, 2009
UK Consumer Electronics Market Outlook
Futuresource Consulting provided insight into where the UK Consumer Electronics market is going, and what movements we should expect to see by the upcoming winter holiday season.
Consumer appetite for High Definition TV (HDTV) shows no signs of slowing, with the 2010 football World Cup and 2012 London Olympics expected to help drive interest across Europe. Flat panel sales are currently driven by people replacing their CRT TV sets, and also by demand for smaller screen sizes as second and third displays are purchased for use in the kitchen or bedroom.
The UK remains the lead market in Europe, with shipments last year reaching 8.8 million units, and Futuresource forecasts show the UK market will grow to 9.6 million units in 2009. However, price drops during the latter half of 2008 and into 2009 have had a negative impact on TV vendors, with overall TV revenues expected to fall this year.
LCD has captured more than 90 percent of flat panel sales, and future growth will be driven by value-added features such as LED, high screen refresh rates, ultra-thin screen technologies and 3D, as well as continued migration to larger screen sizes. Plasma technology will continue to lose share to LCD, but will remain significant in screen sizes of 50 inches and above.
All flat panel HDTVs are capable of handling any HD input and scaling it appropriately, whether the screen resolution is 720 or 1080. However, the falling price premium for 1080p displays and the increasing amount of content available in Full HD from Blu-ray players and PS3 games consoles is driving a clear path towards 1080p screen adoption.
From a market of negligible size in 2007, the Netbook personal computer reached nearly six million units across Europe in 2008, and in doing so exposed a gap in the market for Notebooks that are configured primarily for internet usage and very little else.
In the UK, Netbooks accounted for over one in ten sales of the UK PC market last year and Futuresource expects this trend to continue into 2009, as more and more vendors move into the low cost computing category.
The UK market is expected to reach close to 2.5 million units this year, representing year-on-year growth of more than 70 percent, with a large segment of the market being attracted by newer, cheaper netbooks offering increased functionality.
Consumer appetite for High Definition TV (HDTV) shows no signs of slowing, with the 2010 football World Cup and 2012 London Olympics expected to help drive interest across Europe. Flat panel sales are currently driven by people replacing their CRT TV sets, and also by demand for smaller screen sizes as second and third displays are purchased for use in the kitchen or bedroom.
The UK remains the lead market in Europe, with shipments last year reaching 8.8 million units, and Futuresource forecasts show the UK market will grow to 9.6 million units in 2009. However, price drops during the latter half of 2008 and into 2009 have had a negative impact on TV vendors, with overall TV revenues expected to fall this year.
LCD has captured more than 90 percent of flat panel sales, and future growth will be driven by value-added features such as LED, high screen refresh rates, ultra-thin screen technologies and 3D, as well as continued migration to larger screen sizes. Plasma technology will continue to lose share to LCD, but will remain significant in screen sizes of 50 inches and above.
All flat panel HDTVs are capable of handling any HD input and scaling it appropriately, whether the screen resolution is 720 or 1080. However, the falling price premium for 1080p displays and the increasing amount of content available in Full HD from Blu-ray players and PS3 games consoles is driving a clear path towards 1080p screen adoption.
From a market of negligible size in 2007, the Netbook personal computer reached nearly six million units across Europe in 2008, and in doing so exposed a gap in the market for Notebooks that are configured primarily for internet usage and very little else.
In the UK, Netbooks accounted for over one in ten sales of the UK PC market last year and Futuresource expects this trend to continue into 2009, as more and more vendors move into the low cost computing category.
The UK market is expected to reach close to 2.5 million units this year, representing year-on-year growth of more than 70 percent, with a large segment of the market being attracted by newer, cheaper netbooks offering increased functionality.
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
SuperSpeed USB Upside within Digital Home
SuperSpeed USB technology will experience broad adoption across a range of PC and related peripherals over the next several years, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
Among peripherals, SuperSpeed USB will be targeted initially at devices requiring high data transfer rates and large data stores -- such as external hard-disk drives and Flash Drives. Other likely target devices include Portable Media Players (PMPs), LCD PC monitors, and digital still cameras.
In-Stat projects that attach rates for SuperSpeed USB will grow to over 70 percent in external hard-drives by 2012, with similar attach rates in notebook and desktop PCs. Initial adoption will emerge in 2010.
By 2013, shipments of USB 3.0 flash drives will approach 200 million units worldwide. Eventually, mobile phones will be the highest volume segment, simply due to the overwhelming volume phones shipped. Overall, SuperSpeed USB will represent over 25 percent of the USB market by 2013.
"SuperSpeed may eventually move beyond those target applications requiring the highest bandwidth." says Brian O'Rourke, In-Stat analyst. "However, in order to achieve broader adoption, cost will have to go down significantly."
To get SuperSpeed USB costs down and increase attach rates, the technology will have to be integrated into the application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and System-on-a-Chips (SoCs), that power the peripherals.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- With over three billion devices shipped in 2008 alone, USB is the most successful interface ever. It has been broadly adopted across PCs, PC peripherals, consumer electronics (CE), communications and automotive devices.
- Digital TVs with USB will grow to 140 million units shipped in 2013.
- Consumer electronics devices with USB will rise at a 6.6 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2008 and 2013.
Among peripherals, SuperSpeed USB will be targeted initially at devices requiring high data transfer rates and large data stores -- such as external hard-disk drives and Flash Drives. Other likely target devices include Portable Media Players (PMPs), LCD PC monitors, and digital still cameras.
In-Stat projects that attach rates for SuperSpeed USB will grow to over 70 percent in external hard-drives by 2012, with similar attach rates in notebook and desktop PCs. Initial adoption will emerge in 2010.
By 2013, shipments of USB 3.0 flash drives will approach 200 million units worldwide. Eventually, mobile phones will be the highest volume segment, simply due to the overwhelming volume phones shipped. Overall, SuperSpeed USB will represent over 25 percent of the USB market by 2013.
"SuperSpeed may eventually move beyond those target applications requiring the highest bandwidth." says Brian O'Rourke, In-Stat analyst. "However, in order to achieve broader adoption, cost will have to go down significantly."
To get SuperSpeed USB costs down and increase attach rates, the technology will have to be integrated into the application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and System-on-a-Chips (SoCs), that power the peripherals.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- With over three billion devices shipped in 2008 alone, USB is the most successful interface ever. It has been broadly adopted across PCs, PC peripherals, consumer electronics (CE), communications and automotive devices.
- Digital TVs with USB will grow to 140 million units shipped in 2013.
- Consumer electronics devices with USB will rise at a 6.6 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between 2008 and 2013.
Monday, September 14, 2009
Mobile Applications Moving into the Cloud
Mobile cloud computing subscribers worldwide will grow rapidly over the next five years, rising from 42.8 million subscribers in 2008 to just over 998 million in 2014, according to the latest market study by ABI Research.
Mobile cloud applications move the computing power and data storage away from mobile devices and into the cloud (managed cloud services), bringing apps and mobile computing to not just smartphone users but a much broader range of mobile subscribers.
According to ABI senior analyst Mark Beccue, "From 2008 through 2010, subscriber numbers will be driven by location-enabled services, particularly navigation and map applications. A total of 60 percent of the mobile Cloud application subscribers worldwide will use an application enabled by location during these years."
Some innovative applications are already commercially available. Lock manufacturer Schlage, or example, has launched LiNK -- a keyless lock system for the home that enables subscribers to remotely control not only the door lock, but heating/cooling, security cameras and light monitors, all via a PC or mobile device.
Business productivity applications will soon dominate the mix of mobile cloud applications, particularly collaborative document sharing, scheduling, and sales force management applications.
ABI expects some or all of the most recognized Platform as a Service (PaaS) platforms -- Google, Amazon AWS, and Force.com -- to market their mobile capabilities aggressively starting in 2010.
Beccue concludes by reiterating his finding that, "By 2014, mobile cloud computing will become the leading mobile application development and deployment strategy, displacing today's native and downloadable mobile applications."
Mobile cloud applications move the computing power and data storage away from mobile devices and into the cloud (managed cloud services), bringing apps and mobile computing to not just smartphone users but a much broader range of mobile subscribers.
According to ABI senior analyst Mark Beccue, "From 2008 through 2010, subscriber numbers will be driven by location-enabled services, particularly navigation and map applications. A total of 60 percent of the mobile Cloud application subscribers worldwide will use an application enabled by location during these years."
Some innovative applications are already commercially available. Lock manufacturer Schlage, or example, has launched LiNK -- a keyless lock system for the home that enables subscribers to remotely control not only the door lock, but heating/cooling, security cameras and light monitors, all via a PC or mobile device.
Business productivity applications will soon dominate the mix of mobile cloud applications, particularly collaborative document sharing, scheduling, and sales force management applications.
ABI expects some or all of the most recognized Platform as a Service (PaaS) platforms -- Google, Amazon AWS, and Force.com -- to market their mobile capabilities aggressively starting in 2010.
Beccue concludes by reiterating his finding that, "By 2014, mobile cloud computing will become the leading mobile application development and deployment strategy, displacing today's native and downloadable mobile applications."
Saturday, September 12, 2009
Why Social Media Marketing is an Opportunity
eMarketer reports that while social network advertising gets the attention, it's only one of many ways marketers can reach customers. Social networks can be used for branding, improving customer loyalty, lead generation, direct marketing and e-commerce.
"The beauty of social networks is that they are a place where nearly any marketing goal can be achieved, with nearly any marketing tactic," said Debra Aho Williamson, eMarketer senior analyst.
Common wisdom over the past few years has been that people are interested in interacting with social network friends, not marketers.
Not so, according to Anderson Analytics May 2009 survey -- 52 percent of social network users had become a fan or follower of a company or brand, while 46 percent had said something good about a brand or company, that's double the percentage who had said something negative (23 percent).
In a December 2008 MarketingSherpa survey, 92 percent of respondents said social media marketing was effective at influencing brand reputation and 91 percent said it worked for increasing brand awareness. But, these same executives found it far less effective for generating sales leads or increasing online sales.
However, some marketers are apparently demonstrating the effectiveness of using social networks for direct marketing and lead generation. Brand pages and applications can be vehicles to deliver coupons and offers to consumers to drive trials, store traffic and response.
A July 2009 Starbucks promotion, for example, distributed coupons for a free pastry via Facebook and other social outlets. The chain was soon one of the top trending topics on Twitter and the top brand on Facebook, with more than 3.7 million fans.
That said, the typical slow shift of budget funds to digital marketing activities seems to indicate that legacy marketers are still not motivated by these results. Most prefer to focus on traditional media buys as their safe bet. Meaning, the window of opportunity for those progressive marketers -- willing to experiment with social media -- is still wide open.
Friday, September 11, 2009
Mobile Content Grows in South Korea Market
The main engines of growth in South Korea's telecom market from 2010 to 2014 will be services built around broadband technologies -- such as VoIP, IPTV, and mobile data, according to the latest market study by Pyramid Research.
South Korea is arguably the most advanced communications market in the world -- with its 75 percent household fixed broadband penetration rate and 86 percent mobile user penetration rate at year-end 2008.
"Despite the expected decline in service revenue in 2009, Pyramid Research expects the market to rebound and to grow at a CAGR of 4.9 percent during the next five years, generating $29.5 billion by 2014," notes Tae Hyung Kim, analyst at Pyramid Research.
VoIP subscribers increased eight-fold from just 0.3 million subscribers in 2006 to 2.5 million in 2008 due to the enactment of VoIP number portability and Pyramid expects the trend to continue throughout the forecast period.
"With 18.8 million pay-TV subscriptions in a country of 17.6 million households, South Koreans are familiar with the idea of paying money for premium content," says Kim.
"Although cable TV operators dominate the scene with 77 percent share of the pay-TV market, IPTV is a real threat, which all three fixed operators launched in the first quarter of 2009," he explains.
With the regulatory obstacles cleared, attractively priced and bundled with other services will enable IPTV to account for 27 percent of pay-TV subscriptions by year-end 2014.
South Korean consumers are a prime target for mobile content -- given their familiarity and comfort with online content. "Re-education combined with transparent and affordable pricing levels should be all that is needed to reignite the mobile content market in South Korea," Kim says.
South Korea is arguably the most advanced communications market in the world -- with its 75 percent household fixed broadband penetration rate and 86 percent mobile user penetration rate at year-end 2008.
"Despite the expected decline in service revenue in 2009, Pyramid Research expects the market to rebound and to grow at a CAGR of 4.9 percent during the next five years, generating $29.5 billion by 2014," notes Tae Hyung Kim, analyst at Pyramid Research.
VoIP subscribers increased eight-fold from just 0.3 million subscribers in 2006 to 2.5 million in 2008 due to the enactment of VoIP number portability and Pyramid expects the trend to continue throughout the forecast period.
"With 18.8 million pay-TV subscriptions in a country of 17.6 million households, South Koreans are familiar with the idea of paying money for premium content," says Kim.
"Although cable TV operators dominate the scene with 77 percent share of the pay-TV market, IPTV is a real threat, which all three fixed operators launched in the first quarter of 2009," he explains.
With the regulatory obstacles cleared, attractively priced and bundled with other services will enable IPTV to account for 27 percent of pay-TV subscriptions by year-end 2014.
South Korean consumers are a prime target for mobile content -- given their familiarity and comfort with online content. "Re-education combined with transparent and affordable pricing levels should be all that is needed to reignite the mobile content market in South Korea," Kim says.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
Digital Video Consumption Increased in U.S.
Online digital video consumption is a mainstream activity in the U.S. -- 67 percent of online Americans have now streamed or downloaded digital video content, according to the latest market study by Ipsos.
While YouTube continues to dominate the short video clip market and iTunes continues to do brisk business via downloads, the streaming of longer running content -- such as TV shows and movies -- has become more popular due to sites such as Hulu and Netflix.
The growth of Hulu in particular has been rapid -- only 9 percent of digital video users were aware of Hulu in September 2008; today, its awareness is 41 percent.
iTunes also posted growth for digital video during this time frame, and YouTube keeps extending its reach. At the same time, the visibility of MySpace as a digital video source has dimmed somewhat recently.
"The increase in usage across multiple sites confirms that Americans are watching a greater breadth of digital video than ever before," explains Brian Pickens, Senior Research Manager at Ipsos MediaCT.
As a result of this growth, advertisers and marketers need to be prepared to reach these key individuals no matter where they choose to consume their video. Therefore, consumer willingness to accept advertising within the online digital video medium is paramount.
A positive sign for marketers is that a clear majority of digital video users feel it is reasonable to have advertising embedded in both online full-length TV shows and movies, as long as the content remains free-of-charge. These numbers help to illustrate why streaming sites have rapidly increased in popularity over a short time-frame.
It is important to note that digital video users watch almost 15 hours of TV on their traditional television per week -- versus about two hours on their PC. In most cases, digital video users state a strong preference for viewing video content on their televisions.
With professionally produced content now available through online websites, consumers may be poised to adopt solutions that facilitate the connected living room scenario. There is a desire to combine the readily available online video content and the television viewing experience.
Pickens concludes, "Despite the onslaught of video choices online, Americans remain happy with their TVs and HDTVs. However, Americans also enjoy the immediate gratification of digital video content accessible online, and creating an easy and affordable way to bridge the gap from online video to the TV would allow consumers to enjoy the best of both worlds."
While YouTube continues to dominate the short video clip market and iTunes continues to do brisk business via downloads, the streaming of longer running content -- such as TV shows and movies -- has become more popular due to sites such as Hulu and Netflix.
The growth of Hulu in particular has been rapid -- only 9 percent of digital video users were aware of Hulu in September 2008; today, its awareness is 41 percent.
iTunes also posted growth for digital video during this time frame, and YouTube keeps extending its reach. At the same time, the visibility of MySpace as a digital video source has dimmed somewhat recently.
"The increase in usage across multiple sites confirms that Americans are watching a greater breadth of digital video than ever before," explains Brian Pickens, Senior Research Manager at Ipsos MediaCT.
As a result of this growth, advertisers and marketers need to be prepared to reach these key individuals no matter where they choose to consume their video. Therefore, consumer willingness to accept advertising within the online digital video medium is paramount.
A positive sign for marketers is that a clear majority of digital video users feel it is reasonable to have advertising embedded in both online full-length TV shows and movies, as long as the content remains free-of-charge. These numbers help to illustrate why streaming sites have rapidly increased in popularity over a short time-frame.
It is important to note that digital video users watch almost 15 hours of TV on their traditional television per week -- versus about two hours on their PC. In most cases, digital video users state a strong preference for viewing video content on their televisions.
With professionally produced content now available through online websites, consumers may be poised to adopt solutions that facilitate the connected living room scenario. There is a desire to combine the readily available online video content and the television viewing experience.
Pickens concludes, "Despite the onslaught of video choices online, Americans remain happy with their TVs and HDTVs. However, Americans also enjoy the immediate gratification of digital video content accessible online, and creating an easy and affordable way to bridge the gap from online video to the TV would allow consumers to enjoy the best of both worlds."
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
Growth for Linux Operating System Software
Worldwide revenue from Linux operating system software grew by 23.4 percent from 2007 to 2008, and that growth will be followed by a 2008-2013 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.9 percent, according to the latest study by IDC.
With this growth, worldwide Linux operating systems revenue will cross $1 billion for the first time in 2012, growing to $1.2 billion by 2013.
By comparison, Linux server operating system subscriptions will exhibit a different profile, with a contraction of net new subscriptions expected in 2009, followed by a steady recovery through 2013.
Meanwhile, non-paid Linux server operating system deployments are predicted to grow more quickly than new subscriptions through 2013, leading to a net increase of non-paid Linux server operating systems deployed compared to total worldwide Linux server operating systems being placed into service.
The combined total of Linux server operating system subscriptions and non-paid deployments is expected to show a 2008-2013 CAGR of 1.1 percent -- a low growth rate that is impacted significantly by the anticipated contraction in 2009.
IDC notes that this low growth rate of new deployment can be misleading, since growth of virtualized deployments will also be taking place aboard existing servers, a metric not directly considered in the predicted growth of net new subscriptions and deployments.
"We find that more customers are seeing non-paid Linux as a viable solution for certain non-critical business needs, despite the lack of commercial applications and the potential support challenges that come with a non-commercially-supported distribution." said Al Gillen, program vice president, System Software at IDC.
With this growth, worldwide Linux operating systems revenue will cross $1 billion for the first time in 2012, growing to $1.2 billion by 2013.
By comparison, Linux server operating system subscriptions will exhibit a different profile, with a contraction of net new subscriptions expected in 2009, followed by a steady recovery through 2013.
Meanwhile, non-paid Linux server operating system deployments are predicted to grow more quickly than new subscriptions through 2013, leading to a net increase of non-paid Linux server operating systems deployed compared to total worldwide Linux server operating systems being placed into service.
The combined total of Linux server operating system subscriptions and non-paid deployments is expected to show a 2008-2013 CAGR of 1.1 percent -- a low growth rate that is impacted significantly by the anticipated contraction in 2009.
IDC notes that this low growth rate of new deployment can be misleading, since growth of virtualized deployments will also be taking place aboard existing servers, a metric not directly considered in the predicted growth of net new subscriptions and deployments.
"We find that more customers are seeing non-paid Linux as a viable solution for certain non-critical business needs, despite the lack of commercial applications and the potential support challenges that come with a non-commercially-supported distribution." said Al Gillen, program vice president, System Software at IDC.
Tuesday, September 08, 2009
Digital Home Networking Adoption Upside
Home network users are continuing to migrate to newer and faster home networking connectivity technologies, including Gigabit Ethernet, 802.11n Wi-Fi and alternative wire technologies -- such as coax, powerline and phone wiring.
In 2008, 10/100 Ethernet was still the leading technology in use with home networks worldwide. However, 802.11x networks will outnumber 10/100 Ethernet by the end of 2009, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
In addition, many Wi-Fi users have transitioned (or are transitioning) from 802.11b to the more robust 802.11g, and some have begun to upgrade from 802.11g to draft 802.11n-compatible wireless network products.
"Another notable trend is that the use of home networks for more than just Internet sharing among North American users increased from 41.8 percent in 2008 to 49.7 percent in 2009," says Joyce Putscher, In-Stat analyst.
But most consumers have not yet bridged the chasm between the PC and consumer electronics (CE) worlds by adding CE devices to their networks. But, that could change as more consumers become savvy to all the useful home network applications.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Worldwide installed home networks will surpass 300 million households in 2011.
- Home networks with Gigabit Ethernet will more than quadruple through 2013 to nearly 90 million households worldwide.
- Asia/Pacific will lead in Wi-Fi home network penetration by 2012.
- Europe leads in networked households with alternative wire technologies, both currently and throughout the forecast period.
In 2008, 10/100 Ethernet was still the leading technology in use with home networks worldwide. However, 802.11x networks will outnumber 10/100 Ethernet by the end of 2009, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
In addition, many Wi-Fi users have transitioned (or are transitioning) from 802.11b to the more robust 802.11g, and some have begun to upgrade from 802.11g to draft 802.11n-compatible wireless network products.
"Another notable trend is that the use of home networks for more than just Internet sharing among North American users increased from 41.8 percent in 2008 to 49.7 percent in 2009," says Joyce Putscher, In-Stat analyst.
But most consumers have not yet bridged the chasm between the PC and consumer electronics (CE) worlds by adding CE devices to their networks. But, that could change as more consumers become savvy to all the useful home network applications.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Worldwide installed home networks will surpass 300 million households in 2011.
- Home networks with Gigabit Ethernet will more than quadruple through 2013 to nearly 90 million households worldwide.
- Asia/Pacific will lead in Wi-Fi home network penetration by 2012.
- Europe leads in networked households with alternative wire technologies, both currently and throughout the forecast period.
Monday, September 07, 2009
Wi-Fi in Mobile Handsets Still on the Increase
In February 2009, ABI Research found that dual-mode cellular/Wi-Fi mobile handset shipments were set to double between 2008 and 2010. ABI analysts have now confirmed that a similar pattern will hold true for the period 2009-2011.
This year is on track to see 144 million handsets shipped, with forecasts for 2011 at just over 300 million.
"Wi-Fi's penetration into handsets has more momentum than the bad economy," says industry analyst Michael Morgan. "It has become a must-have item much as Bluetooth did earlier. But just having Wi-Fi in the handset isn't enough. You have to have a reason for customers to use it. Until now it has been predominantly for data use, with voice struggling to find its niche."
However mobile operator attitudes to Wi-Fi have been changing. At first many feared that Wi-Fi would take (voice/data) traffic off their networks, resulting in lost revenue. Now they're starting to realize that it may instead mean an increase in available network capacity.
How mobile service providers view Wi-Fi is largely a function of their particular circumstances, says Morgan. "Verizon has not enthusiastically embraced Wi-Fi in its handsets, while AT&T has. AT&T was thrown into the pool by the iPhone. Previously people did access data, but the iPhone led people to use Wi-Fi to a degree never seen before. Traditionally cautious Verizon hasn't been thrown into that situation yet, but they are warming up to Wi-Fi."
Wi-Fi benefits depend on a carrier's circumstances too. Consider T-Mobile: a wireless carrier that owns no landline assets. It used Wi-Fi to deliver an improved in-home service that it couldn't achieve before. In contrast, AT&T does have landline assets. Here Wi-Fi's benefit is to take a load off the AT&T mobile network.
"The picture may be unique to each carrier," Morgan concludes, "but in the end Wi-Fi can offer most operators those two key benefits: extended reach and/or network load reduction."
This year is on track to see 144 million handsets shipped, with forecasts for 2011 at just over 300 million.
"Wi-Fi's penetration into handsets has more momentum than the bad economy," says industry analyst Michael Morgan. "It has become a must-have item much as Bluetooth did earlier. But just having Wi-Fi in the handset isn't enough. You have to have a reason for customers to use it. Until now it has been predominantly for data use, with voice struggling to find its niche."
However mobile operator attitudes to Wi-Fi have been changing. At first many feared that Wi-Fi would take (voice/data) traffic off their networks, resulting in lost revenue. Now they're starting to realize that it may instead mean an increase in available network capacity.
How mobile service providers view Wi-Fi is largely a function of their particular circumstances, says Morgan. "Verizon has not enthusiastically embraced Wi-Fi in its handsets, while AT&T has. AT&T was thrown into the pool by the iPhone. Previously people did access data, but the iPhone led people to use Wi-Fi to a degree never seen before. Traditionally cautious Verizon hasn't been thrown into that situation yet, but they are warming up to Wi-Fi."
Wi-Fi benefits depend on a carrier's circumstances too. Consider T-Mobile: a wireless carrier that owns no landline assets. It used Wi-Fi to deliver an improved in-home service that it couldn't achieve before. In contrast, AT&T does have landline assets. Here Wi-Fi's benefit is to take a load off the AT&T mobile network.
"The picture may be unique to each carrier," Morgan concludes, "but in the end Wi-Fi can offer most operators those two key benefits: extended reach and/or network load reduction."
Saturday, September 05, 2009
Obvious Barriers to Social Media Marketing
eMarketer reports that the Social Media Marketing bandwagon is in motion, according to the latest market study from Equation Research. Their survey of U.S. brand marketers found the majority already using social media.
Some marketers were planning on adding social media activities over the next year, including 15 percent of respondents in businesses with fewer than 50 employees and 24 percent of those whose companies had at least 500 employees.
The most popular social media channels for brand and agency marketers were Facebook, Twitter, online videos and blogs -- each used by more than one-half of survey respondents.
Respondents reported common barriers to social media adoption. Among brand marketers, 37 percent did not know enough about social media to begin, and another 37 percent said there was no good way to measure its effectiveness (seriously, compared to traditional "leap-of-faith" mass media marketing?).
Agency marketers reiterated those concerns, and were also likely to say that social media was not proven or tested as a marketing strategy (31 percent). No surprise, funding was also a problem for about one-quarter of brand and agency respondents.
Apparently, the informed marketers do track various social media metrics. More than six in 10 brand and agency respondents reported tracking Website visits. Marketers also monitored feedback, links and mentions on other sites, and the impact on sales.
That said, 14 percent of brand marketers and 12 percent of agency marketers reported not measuring social media efforts at all. Perhaps these are some of the same people who reported the "barriers to adoption" are measurement related. Obviously, you can't manage what you don't attempt to measure.
Friday, September 04, 2009
U.S. Media Consumption and Multi-Tasking
Americans are increasing their overall media consumption, and media multi-tasking is a key part of the equation, according to the latest market study by The Nielsen Company.
During 2nd Quarter 2009, the number of people watching mobile video increased 70 percent from last year and people who watch video online increased their viewing by 46 percent compared to a year ago.
In addition, the average American TV consumption remains at an amazing all-time high (141 hours per month) -- compared to the same time frame last year. But, are people really paying attention to the television during all those hours? Maybe, or then again, maybe not.
"Although we have seen the computer and mobile phone screens taking on a significant role, their emergence has not been at the cost of TV viewership," said Jim O’Hara, President, Media Product Leadership, The Nielsen Company. "The entire media universe is expanding so consumers are choosing to add elements to their media experience, rather than to replace them."
Nielsen data also shows Americans are using DVRs more than ever, watching one hour more of time-shifted TV each month than a year ago. Currently, 30 percent of homes in the U.S. have DVR devices.
Other results of the Nielsen market study include:
- As Americans continue to watch more TV each year there are also more TVs in each home than people -- in 2009 the average U.S. home had only 2.5 people vs 2.86 television sets. 54 percent of Americans have three or more TV sets in the home.
- Online usage is relatively flat since last year, though more people are viewing video online than ever before. Certain age groups also view online video more than others do -- Adults 18-24 watch more than 5 hrs each month vs. Adults 65+ watching just over 1 hr of online video.
- Short form video (such as YouTube clips) still makes up the majority of online video viewing -- 83 percent in May 09 -- while name-brand TV network content comprises the majority of mobile video viewing.
- Younger demographics aren't using the Internet as much as older demographics, yet the growth rate of kids 2-11 online clearly outpaces the overall Internet penetration. The number of kids online has increased 18 percent compared to 10 percent growth for the total active Internet universe (P2+).
- Mobile video viewing continues its upward trend, with over 15 million Americans reporting watching mobile video in Q2 2009. This is an increase of 70 percent versus last year -- the largest annual growth to date.
During 2nd Quarter 2009, the number of people watching mobile video increased 70 percent from last year and people who watch video online increased their viewing by 46 percent compared to a year ago.
In addition, the average American TV consumption remains at an amazing all-time high (141 hours per month) -- compared to the same time frame last year. But, are people really paying attention to the television during all those hours? Maybe, or then again, maybe not.
"Although we have seen the computer and mobile phone screens taking on a significant role, their emergence has not been at the cost of TV viewership," said Jim O’Hara, President, Media Product Leadership, The Nielsen Company. "The entire media universe is expanding so consumers are choosing to add elements to their media experience, rather than to replace them."
Nielsen data also shows Americans are using DVRs more than ever, watching one hour more of time-shifted TV each month than a year ago. Currently, 30 percent of homes in the U.S. have DVR devices.
Other results of the Nielsen market study include:
- As Americans continue to watch more TV each year there are also more TVs in each home than people -- in 2009 the average U.S. home had only 2.5 people vs 2.86 television sets. 54 percent of Americans have three or more TV sets in the home.
- Online usage is relatively flat since last year, though more people are viewing video online than ever before. Certain age groups also view online video more than others do -- Adults 18-24 watch more than 5 hrs each month vs. Adults 65+ watching just over 1 hr of online video.
- Short form video (such as YouTube clips) still makes up the majority of online video viewing -- 83 percent in May 09 -- while name-brand TV network content comprises the majority of mobile video viewing.
- Younger demographics aren't using the Internet as much as older demographics, yet the growth rate of kids 2-11 online clearly outpaces the overall Internet penetration. The number of kids online has increased 18 percent compared to 10 percent growth for the total active Internet universe (P2+).
- Mobile video viewing continues its upward trend, with over 15 million Americans reporting watching mobile video in Q2 2009. This is an increase of 70 percent versus last year -- the largest annual growth to date.
Thursday, September 03, 2009
4G Fixed Wireless Broadband CPE Growth
To date, the slowest total global broadband service provider Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) market growth this decade had been 2.4 percent (154M units) in 2008, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
2009 will be even slower. However, cable gateways, Wi-Fi and VoIP routers, and wireless and VoIP DSL CPE units continue to grow in at least double digits.
In addition, several segments of the broadband CPE market, including cable gateways, Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) gateways, and Fixed Wireless Broadband (FWB) CPE are expected to grow considerably faster than the overall market over five years.
"Gigabit Ethernet, VoIP, the DSL Forum's TR-69, and 802.11n are all drivers for CPE upgrades and replacements," says Joyce Putscher, In-Stat analyst. "We're also seeing accelerated growth in FTTH CPE unit shipments in 2009."
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- The overall broadband CPE market includes broadband modems, routers, and residential gateway equipment for DSL, cable, Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH), Fixed Wireless Broadband (FWB), and Fixed Satellite Broadband (FSB).
- VoIP-enabled DSL CPE unit shipments saw healthy growth in 2008. More than half of DSL CPE unit shipments will be VoIP enabled in 2009. Worldwide SOHO/Home Routers with VoIP also grew strongly with over 40 percent unit growth.
- The FTTH CPE segment, which includes ONTs and FTTH Gateways, will see a nearly 20 percent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) through 2013.
- The majority of global FWB subscribers are now WiMAX. Asia-Pacific has the lead in FWB subscribers and CPE shipments, followed by Europe. In 2011, Asia-Pacific should capture over 50 percent share of the annual FWB CPE shipments.
2009 will be even slower. However, cable gateways, Wi-Fi and VoIP routers, and wireless and VoIP DSL CPE units continue to grow in at least double digits.
In addition, several segments of the broadband CPE market, including cable gateways, Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) gateways, and Fixed Wireless Broadband (FWB) CPE are expected to grow considerably faster than the overall market over five years.
"Gigabit Ethernet, VoIP, the DSL Forum's TR-69, and 802.11n are all drivers for CPE upgrades and replacements," says Joyce Putscher, In-Stat analyst. "We're also seeing accelerated growth in FTTH CPE unit shipments in 2009."
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- The overall broadband CPE market includes broadband modems, routers, and residential gateway equipment for DSL, cable, Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH), Fixed Wireless Broadband (FWB), and Fixed Satellite Broadband (FSB).
- VoIP-enabled DSL CPE unit shipments saw healthy growth in 2008. More than half of DSL CPE unit shipments will be VoIP enabled in 2009. Worldwide SOHO/Home Routers with VoIP also grew strongly with over 40 percent unit growth.
- The FTTH CPE segment, which includes ONTs and FTTH Gateways, will see a nearly 20 percent Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) through 2013.
- The majority of global FWB subscribers are now WiMAX. Asia-Pacific has the lead in FWB subscribers and CPE shipments, followed by Europe. In 2011, Asia-Pacific should capture over 50 percent share of the annual FWB CPE shipments.
Wednesday, September 02, 2009
Mobile Data to Surpass Fixed Voice in U.S.
The U.S. communications market will reach $406 billion in 2014 as mobile data revenue climbs to $94 billion, surpassing fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) during the forecast period, according to the latest market study by Pyramid Research.
The executive study provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. communications market by analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing upcoming risk factors.
The U.S. communications market, including traditional pay-TV, generated $359 billion in service revenue in 2008 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5 percent from year-end 2009 to year-end 2014, reaching $406 billion, notes Dan Locke, Senior Analyst at Pyramid Research.
Most of the growth will be attributed to mobile data and IP networks. Mobile data is already larger than fixed broadband and it will surpass fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) in 2011, climbing from $36 billion in 2008 to $94 billion in 2014.
The study found additional growth will be driven mostly by IP networks because IPTV will grow from $2 billion in 2008 to $15 billion in 2014.
VoIP will grow from $8 billion in 2008 to $22 billion in 2014 and fixed broadband will grow from $33 billion in 2008 to about $46 billion in 2014.
The decline of the PSTN voice revenue will result from the substitution of voice platforms both as fixed operators migrate customers to all-IP voice platforms and as consumers opt for mobile voice platforms, which also will eventually turn to IP.
Mobile broadband will be a further source for growth for the U.S. telecom market due to growing popularity of unlimited data and mobile broadband plans. Revenue related to mobile broadband access for laptops and Internet access for handsets will grow rapidly at CAGRs of 28 percent and 18 percent, respectively, from 2009 to 2014.
The executive study provides a comprehensive view of the U.S. communications market by analyzing key trends, evaluating near-term opportunities and assessing upcoming risk factors.
The U.S. communications market, including traditional pay-TV, generated $359 billion in service revenue in 2008 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 2.5 percent from year-end 2009 to year-end 2014, reaching $406 billion, notes Dan Locke, Senior Analyst at Pyramid Research.
Most of the growth will be attributed to mobile data and IP networks. Mobile data is already larger than fixed broadband and it will surpass fixed voice (PSTN + VoIP) in 2011, climbing from $36 billion in 2008 to $94 billion in 2014.
The study found additional growth will be driven mostly by IP networks because IPTV will grow from $2 billion in 2008 to $15 billion in 2014.
VoIP will grow from $8 billion in 2008 to $22 billion in 2014 and fixed broadband will grow from $33 billion in 2008 to about $46 billion in 2014.
The decline of the PSTN voice revenue will result from the substitution of voice platforms both as fixed operators migrate customers to all-IP voice platforms and as consumers opt for mobile voice platforms, which also will eventually turn to IP.
Mobile broadband will be a further source for growth for the U.S. telecom market due to growing popularity of unlimited data and mobile broadband plans. Revenue related to mobile broadband access for laptops and Internet access for handsets will grow rapidly at CAGRs of 28 percent and 18 percent, respectively, from 2009 to 2014.
Tuesday, September 01, 2009
Will Television be Driven by HDTV or OTT?
With the global switch over from analog to digital TV broadcasts, hybrid set-top boxes potentially have a more significant role in the access to entertainment and information services.
This is especially apparent in mature high-speed Internet economies where broadband service providers strive towards providing interactive bi-directional television, thereby leading to the growth of IP set-top boxes.
According to the latest set-top box (STB) market study by ABI Research, IP STBs will generate a market value above $3 billion by 2014. This analog-digital switchover has also brought about a progressive momentum towards sophisticated box types as well as advanced compression technologies.
As ABI Research industry analyst Serene Fong notes, "Shipments of basic boxes across all television platforms have declined and will continue to fall throughout the six-year forecast period. In contrast, shipments of boxes with HD capabilities and MPEG-4 compression technologies -- including HD hybrids -- will head north."
Growth is associated with consumer thirst for higher quality content, which is often satisfied through HD quality videos. The increased ownership of HDTVs is considered a good indicator of where the market is heading. The increased adoption of direct-to-consumer Over the Top (OTT) Internet video delivery is yet another.
Motorola and Cisco Systems continue to sit at the top of the cable STB vendor list with a combined market share close to 50 percent in 2008. Thomson and Panasonic ranked highest in the DBS and DTT STB segments, respectively, in the same period.
Vendor strategies for retaining their market shares are targeted towards emerging technologies such as HDTV, IPTV, and digital TV, as these are expected to be the main driving forces for STB sales in the coming years.
ABI's new study, which is updated quarterly, addresses STB shipments information and examines the growth potential across four digital video platforms: CATV, DBS, IPTV, and DTT.
This is especially apparent in mature high-speed Internet economies where broadband service providers strive towards providing interactive bi-directional television, thereby leading to the growth of IP set-top boxes.
According to the latest set-top box (STB) market study by ABI Research, IP STBs will generate a market value above $3 billion by 2014. This analog-digital switchover has also brought about a progressive momentum towards sophisticated box types as well as advanced compression technologies.
As ABI Research industry analyst Serene Fong notes, "Shipments of basic boxes across all television platforms have declined and will continue to fall throughout the six-year forecast period. In contrast, shipments of boxes with HD capabilities and MPEG-4 compression technologies -- including HD hybrids -- will head north."
Growth is associated with consumer thirst for higher quality content, which is often satisfied through HD quality videos. The increased ownership of HDTVs is considered a good indicator of where the market is heading. The increased adoption of direct-to-consumer Over the Top (OTT) Internet video delivery is yet another.
Motorola and Cisco Systems continue to sit at the top of the cable STB vendor list with a combined market share close to 50 percent in 2008. Thomson and Panasonic ranked highest in the DBS and DTT STB segments, respectively, in the same period.
Vendor strategies for retaining their market shares are targeted towards emerging technologies such as HDTV, IPTV, and digital TV, as these are expected to be the main driving forces for STB sales in the coming years.
ABI's new study, which is updated quarterly, addresses STB shipments information and examines the growth potential across four digital video platforms: CATV, DBS, IPTV, and DTT.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)