The hotel and multi-dwelling unit (MDU) markets (apartments and condos) will provide a significant growth opportunity to the IPTV market, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
IPTV will offer growth opportunities to service providers serving high density environments like apartments, and will serve as a differentiator for properties that make it available.
The market for IPTV services to high density deployments such as apartments will exceed $6 billion worldwide by 2013.
The hotel market is more difficult in the short term as the economic downturn makes securing the capital necessary to support deployments more challenging than in the MDU segment. Bookings and revenues are down. Thus hotels may be less willing to finance network upgrades to support IPTV in the near term.
"Deploying IPTV in the MDU market is a good bet for service providers," says Amy Cravens, In-Stat analyst. "Deploying IPTV in high density environments offers significant cost savings compared to single-family housing markets. In this economy, services providers are looking to maximize the return for every infrastructure investment dollar, and MDU deployments provide just that."
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Nearly 70 percent of MDU IPTV in the U.S. will be deployed with Fiber to the Home (FTTH).
- The slump in single-family housing is prompting providers to shift interest to the MDU.
- Regionally, Asia-Pacific is the largest opportunity for subscriber growth in the MDU.
- While the MDU offers significant advantages for the provider after securing access to the building, negotiating entry can be difficult.
- Competitors BNS, Guest-Tek, iBAHN, LodgeNet, and Verizon are among those targeting the Hospitality and MDU market for IPTV.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
IPTV and Switched Digital Video Upside
Infonetics Research recently released the latest (4Q08) edition of its IPTV and Switched Digital Video Equipment, Services, and Subscribers report.
With service providers around the world countering decreasing revenue by cutting capex, one would assume video equipment providers will be hit just as hard as their network equipment colleagues.
However, that won't be the case in 2009. Encoder providers like Harmonic, Tandberg (Ericsson), and Motorola will see a continued upside in revenue this year as they benefit from the HD race currently going on in North America and soon to expand to Western Europe and parts of Asia.
Infonetics' quarterly IPTV and switched digital video report provides worldwide and regional market share, market size, analysis, and forecasts through 2013 for telco IPTV and cable IPTV and SDV equipment, including pure and hybrid IP set-top boxes, integrated digital headend platforms, VoD and streaming content servers, HD and SD IP video encoders, IPTV middleware and content delivery platforms, video content protection software, and universal edge QAMs.
Highlights of the Infonetics market study follow:
- Service provider spending on IPTV and switched digital video (SDV) equipment grew 48 percent in 2008 from the previous year, hitting $3.9 billion worldwide.
- The market was up 10 percent sequentially in the final quarter of 2008.
- Spending was boosted by the shift to high definition (HD) formats and an increase in channel lineups.
- Thanks to aggressive pricing on bundled service packages, there was healthy growth in IPTV subscriber numbers in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), Asia Pacific, and North America in the fourth quarter of 2008.
- The number of pure and hybrid IPTV subscribers more than doubled in 2008 to 25.4 million worldwide, and is expected to grow to about 45 million in 2009.
- Service providers are expected to increase their spending on IPTV equipment in the double-digit percents over the next 5 years, with spending hitting a high of $8.9 billion in 2013.
- IPTV equipment includes integrated digital headend platforms, VoD and streaming content servers, IP video encoders, IPTV middleware/content delivery platforms, video content protection software, and IP set-top boxes.
- In the U.S., a fierce battle is raging between service providers delivering IPTV and cable video providers to increase the number of high definition (HD) channels.
- The same race will be heating up in other regions of the world, particularly in Europe and Central and Latin America.
- Comcast has significantly slowed their SDV rollout and shifted their capex focus exclusively to DOCSIS 3.0 rollouts.
With service providers around the world countering decreasing revenue by cutting capex, one would assume video equipment providers will be hit just as hard as their network equipment colleagues.
However, that won't be the case in 2009. Encoder providers like Harmonic, Tandberg (Ericsson), and Motorola will see a continued upside in revenue this year as they benefit from the HD race currently going on in North America and soon to expand to Western Europe and parts of Asia.
Infonetics' quarterly IPTV and switched digital video report provides worldwide and regional market share, market size, analysis, and forecasts through 2013 for telco IPTV and cable IPTV and SDV equipment, including pure and hybrid IP set-top boxes, integrated digital headend platforms, VoD and streaming content servers, HD and SD IP video encoders, IPTV middleware and content delivery platforms, video content protection software, and universal edge QAMs.
Highlights of the Infonetics market study follow:
- Service provider spending on IPTV and switched digital video (SDV) equipment grew 48 percent in 2008 from the previous year, hitting $3.9 billion worldwide.
- The market was up 10 percent sequentially in the final quarter of 2008.
- Spending was boosted by the shift to high definition (HD) formats and an increase in channel lineups.
- Thanks to aggressive pricing on bundled service packages, there was healthy growth in IPTV subscriber numbers in EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), Asia Pacific, and North America in the fourth quarter of 2008.
- The number of pure and hybrid IPTV subscribers more than doubled in 2008 to 25.4 million worldwide, and is expected to grow to about 45 million in 2009.
- Service providers are expected to increase their spending on IPTV equipment in the double-digit percents over the next 5 years, with spending hitting a high of $8.9 billion in 2013.
- IPTV equipment includes integrated digital headend platforms, VoD and streaming content servers, IP video encoders, IPTV middleware/content delivery platforms, video content protection software, and IP set-top boxes.
- In the U.S., a fierce battle is raging between service providers delivering IPTV and cable video providers to increase the number of high definition (HD) channels.
- The same race will be heating up in other regions of the world, particularly in Europe and Central and Latin America.
- Comcast has significantly slowed their SDV rollout and shifted their capex focus exclusively to DOCSIS 3.0 rollouts.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Legacy Marketing Doesn't Work, Now What?
Having just read Paul Gillin's latest book entitled "Secrets of Social Media Marketing" I'm reflecting on the future of the marketing profession, relative to my own past and recent experiences.
In praise of the book's contents, Larry Weber says "Paul Gillin has written a master map for enterprises to succeed in the era of customer conversation and customer control."
In contrast I believe, and with all due respect to Mr. Weber, while it's apparent that much of what is applied as the fundamental principles of marketing doesn't work today -- and is proven to be ineffectual, in so many ways -- the path to success is currently unclear for many marketers.
Granted, that assessment must be very unsettling to anyone approving the marketing budget for their organization. No matter, it would be foolish to deny the results of the body of knowledge and associated case studies that Paul Gillin compiled to outline the themes in his book.
Embracing change is not something that most people do well. It's said that humans are creatures of habit. In fact, sometimes those repetitive activities are manifested as something that appears like the early symptoms of an obsessive-compulsive disorder. Fear of the unknown can make some people react in irrational ways.
Having Missed the First Cluetrain
Unfortunately, marketers that are driven to rigidly enforce the rules of legacy marketing practices, regardless of the mounting evidence that their behavior has become dysfunctional, will be challenged to apply any semblance of a "master map" for social media -- and thereby use it to their advantage.
When the alternatives to the current marketing modus operandi is described within the context of experimentation, is it likely that those who are consumed by anxiety will follow this new path? I think not. Frankly, there's no mystery regarding why most marketers have yet to fully embrace the techniques of social media marketing.
That said, for those that dare to open their mind to the possibility that they must seek a new path, the opportunities for competitive advancement -- relative to their inactive peer group -- are truly unprecedented.
Many of the issues addressed in this book raise further questions about the viability of traditional advertising agencies and public relations firms, since they're so deeply committed to defending and perpetuating the practices from a bygone mass-media era. They, and their loyal clients, are so gripped by fear of negative repercussions from experimentation that staying on their current course seems like the rational thing to do.
Taking Baby Steps, While in Marketing Therapy
In summary, I'll quote this sentence from the book's back cover. "Secrets of Social Media Marketing isn't intended for the ten percent of marketers who are on the leading edge of this phenomenon. It's for the ninety percent who are trying to figure out how to start."
If you're one of those people that have yet to start, then I wish you good luck on your journey. Don't read this book with the expectation that it will lead you to a cure for what ails your failed marketing efforts. Do read it in the hope that you will gain an understanding of your condition, and that you may find the courage to join a local support group in your area.
Updates: The American Association of Advertising Agencies is offering a Marketer's Guide that explains why savvy marketers should never use a traditional advertising agency for a digital marketing campaign -- because their costs are too high, they are unskilled to perform the work, you would essentially pay them to learn new skills at your expense, and various other compelling reasons.
The take-away; Luddites make social media marketing sound like rocket science because they must fully unlearn the mistakes of their past in order to be able to embrace the new model -- online communities and two-way conversations -- with an open mind.
Still not convinced? New research shows a disconnect between the rate at which people are adopting social media and the traditional ad agency use of cross-platform marketing plans.
People using social networks jumped from 33 percent in 2007 to 60 percent in 2008, per the IBM Institute for Business Value. However, 80 percent of agency executives said they won't be equipped to provide marketing plans in the social-networking space -- including sales and measurement -- for another five years.
In a recent survey of 111 chief marketing officers, 55 percent reported disagreeing with the statement, "We trust our ad agency partner to provide us with the digital marketing expertise that we need."
Friday, March 27, 2009
Untapped Demand for Widget-Enabled TV
The Diffusion Group released new data suggesting that the appeal of widget-enabled TV and video systems will be far greater than many expect. As well, the range of widget-based applications demanded by consumers will quickly eclipse the basic information push apps to be featured on the first wave of widget-enabled TVs and video platforms.
"TDG strongly believes that the introduction of widget-based apps into the TV environment will be the tipping point for Internet-enabled TV," noted Michael Greeson, president of TDG.
In support of this argument, TDG points to data collected during a January 2009 survey of adult broadband users in the U.S. which quantified an unusually high value perception of TV-based widgets.
According to TDG's research, 76 percent of consumers believe having a widget toolbar on their primary TV would be valuable (48 percent "somewhat valuable" and 28 percent "extremely valuable") with only 13 percent being neutral and 11 percent negative.
"Rarely in quantitative consumer research does a new feature or application receive such overwhelming support," notes Greeson. "The widget concept is something consumers seem to understand -- they just get it."
For years, the idea of an Internet-enabled TV was viewed negatively, the impact of a long hangover from failed efforts such as WebTV. A central pain point for these early solutions was the complexity of the interface -- in most cases, it was browser-based and URL-dependent.
The same was the case with early mobile web efforts, a difficulty finally overcome when Apple chose widgets as graphical references for their mobile interface. This was a game-changer, states Greeson.
After the introduction of the iPhone and its widget-based interface, mobile web usage increased, hardware vendors moved to similar designs, and consumers began to think differently about the value of Internet connectivity on mobile devices. TDG believes the same phenomenon will take place once widgets hit the TV.
Greeson warns that Consumer Electronics (CE) OEMs and broadband service providers must make certain that their platforms can handle rapidly evolving usage scenarios. If Apple's widget experience is any indication, the number and variety of TV-based widgets will expand rapidly and in many cases outstrip the ability of low-end hardware to support these applications.
Should this happen firmware upgrades won't matter because the hardware is what defines the headroom and sets the ceiling.
Future proofing Internet-enabled video platforms is critical -- OEMs and operators must think beyond supporting the first round of applications and consider what will comes next, because that application will be here within months, not years.
"TDG strongly believes that the introduction of widget-based apps into the TV environment will be the tipping point for Internet-enabled TV," noted Michael Greeson, president of TDG.
In support of this argument, TDG points to data collected during a January 2009 survey of adult broadband users in the U.S. which quantified an unusually high value perception of TV-based widgets.
According to TDG's research, 76 percent of consumers believe having a widget toolbar on their primary TV would be valuable (48 percent "somewhat valuable" and 28 percent "extremely valuable") with only 13 percent being neutral and 11 percent negative.
"Rarely in quantitative consumer research does a new feature or application receive such overwhelming support," notes Greeson. "The widget concept is something consumers seem to understand -- they just get it."
For years, the idea of an Internet-enabled TV was viewed negatively, the impact of a long hangover from failed efforts such as WebTV. A central pain point for these early solutions was the complexity of the interface -- in most cases, it was browser-based and URL-dependent.
The same was the case with early mobile web efforts, a difficulty finally overcome when Apple chose widgets as graphical references for their mobile interface. This was a game-changer, states Greeson.
After the introduction of the iPhone and its widget-based interface, mobile web usage increased, hardware vendors moved to similar designs, and consumers began to think differently about the value of Internet connectivity on mobile devices. TDG believes the same phenomenon will take place once widgets hit the TV.
Greeson warns that Consumer Electronics (CE) OEMs and broadband service providers must make certain that their platforms can handle rapidly evolving usage scenarios. If Apple's widget experience is any indication, the number and variety of TV-based widgets will expand rapidly and in many cases outstrip the ability of low-end hardware to support these applications.
Should this happen firmware upgrades won't matter because the hardware is what defines the headroom and sets the ceiling.
Future proofing Internet-enabled video platforms is critical -- OEMs and operators must think beyond supporting the first round of applications and consider what will comes next, because that application will be here within months, not years.
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Modest U.S. Groundswell of Mobile Internet
According to ComScore, the number of people using a mobile device to access news and information on the Internet has reached a groundswell. Among the U.S. user base of 63.2 million people who accessed news and information on their mobile devices in January 2009, 22.4 million (35 percent) did so daily -- more than double the size of the market last year.
Does this mean that the U.S. market has caught up to the advanced mobile market leaders in Asia-Pacific and Europe? Hardly. It's all relative progress. But a good sign, regardless.
"Over the course of the past year, we have seen use of mobile Internet evolve from an occasional activity to being a daily part of people's lives," observed Mark Donovan, senior vice president, mobile, comScore.
This underscores the growing importance of the mobile medium as consumers become more reliant on their mobile devices to access time-sensitive and utilitarian information.
"Social networking and blogging have emerged as very popular daily uses of the mobile Web and these activities are growing at a torrid pace," observed Donovan. "We also note that much of the growth in news and information usage is driven by the increased popularity of downloaded applications, such as those offered for the iPhone, and by text-based searches."
While smartphones and high-end feature phones, like the Samsung Instinct and LG Dare comprise the Top 10 devices used for news and information access, 70 percent of those accessing mobile Internet content are using feature phones.
In January, 22.3 million people accessed news and information via a downloaded application. Maps are the most popular downloaded application with 8.2 million users, while search was the overwhelmingly favored use for SMS-based news and information access, with 14.1 million users.
However, 32.4 million people used SMS, without using any mobile Internet, to access news and information in January.
Young males are the most avid users of mobile news and information, with half of 18 to 34-year-old males engaging in the activity. The mobile Internet is also popular among females in the 18 to 24-year-old demographic, with 40 percent accessing it at least once in January.
Does this mean that the U.S. market has caught up to the advanced mobile market leaders in Asia-Pacific and Europe? Hardly. It's all relative progress. But a good sign, regardless.
"Over the course of the past year, we have seen use of mobile Internet evolve from an occasional activity to being a daily part of people's lives," observed Mark Donovan, senior vice president, mobile, comScore.
This underscores the growing importance of the mobile medium as consumers become more reliant on their mobile devices to access time-sensitive and utilitarian information.
"Social networking and blogging have emerged as very popular daily uses of the mobile Web and these activities are growing at a torrid pace," observed Donovan. "We also note that much of the growth in news and information usage is driven by the increased popularity of downloaded applications, such as those offered for the iPhone, and by text-based searches."
While smartphones and high-end feature phones, like the Samsung Instinct and LG Dare comprise the Top 10 devices used for news and information access, 70 percent of those accessing mobile Internet content are using feature phones.
In January, 22.3 million people accessed news and information via a downloaded application. Maps are the most popular downloaded application with 8.2 million users, while search was the overwhelmingly favored use for SMS-based news and information access, with 14.1 million users.
However, 32.4 million people used SMS, without using any mobile Internet, to access news and information in January.
Young males are the most avid users of mobile news and information, with half of 18 to 34-year-old males engaging in the activity. The mobile Internet is also popular among females in the 18 to 24-year-old demographic, with 40 percent accessing it at least once in January.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Rise in 3G and 4G Mobile Service Adoption
At the end of 2008, only 11 percent of worldwide wireless subscriptions were on the 3G mobile standard. However, by the end of 2013, the percentage of 3G and 4G subscriptions will reach 30 percent, according to the latest study by In-Stat.
Apparently, this growth trend is already reflected in fourth quarter 2008 wireless infrastructure contract awards.
WiMAX will now likely compete -- to some degree -- over the next couple of years with the rise of HSPA and LTE. In-Stat expects mobile WiMAX to be attractive in developing countries and remote locations in which fixed broadband networks are not yet deployed.
It is still unknown whether or not mobile WiMAX will be competitive in locations with existing 3G cellular and fixed broadband networks.
"Based on contract awards, WiMAX deployments are remaining resilient in the face of the economic slowdown, although some operators are slowing the deployment rate" says Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst.
The current WiMAX equipment vendors, Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola and Samsung are benefitting from the trend. Other vendors to watch include Cisco, Huawei and ZTE, according to the In-Stat assessment.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- 802.16e, the mobile standard for WiMAX, has been mainly deployed for fixed and nomadic services. Clearwire, Korea Telecom, and UQ of Japan are among a few notable exceptions that are embracing 802.16e for mobile data applications.
- There were 132 announced deployments in the fourth quarter of 2008, consisting of 95 HSPA, 18 WCDMA, 12 mobile WiMAX, six CDMA EV-DO, and one TD SCDMA.
- Based on the contract award activity over the past few quarters, In-Stat expects most of the deployments through new live networks to be WiMAX and HSPA. In-Stat has seen a significant slowdown in contracts for WCDMA and CDMA EV-DO equipment.
Apparently, this growth trend is already reflected in fourth quarter 2008 wireless infrastructure contract awards.
WiMAX will now likely compete -- to some degree -- over the next couple of years with the rise of HSPA and LTE. In-Stat expects mobile WiMAX to be attractive in developing countries and remote locations in which fixed broadband networks are not yet deployed.
It is still unknown whether or not mobile WiMAX will be competitive in locations with existing 3G cellular and fixed broadband networks.
"Based on contract awards, WiMAX deployments are remaining resilient in the face of the economic slowdown, although some operators are slowing the deployment rate" says Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst.
The current WiMAX equipment vendors, Alcatel-Lucent, Alvarion, Motorola and Samsung are benefitting from the trend. Other vendors to watch include Cisco, Huawei and ZTE, according to the In-Stat assessment.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- 802.16e, the mobile standard for WiMAX, has been mainly deployed for fixed and nomadic services. Clearwire, Korea Telecom, and UQ of Japan are among a few notable exceptions that are embracing 802.16e for mobile data applications.
- There were 132 announced deployments in the fourth quarter of 2008, consisting of 95 HSPA, 18 WCDMA, 12 mobile WiMAX, six CDMA EV-DO, and one TD SCDMA.
- Based on the contract award activity over the past few quarters, In-Stat expects most of the deployments through new live networks to be WiMAX and HSPA. In-Stat has seen a significant slowdown in contracts for WCDMA and CDMA EV-DO equipment.
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Robust Global Market for Mobile Broadband
The global market for mobile broadband advanced last year, driving major increases in data subscribers and revenues, and will play an increasingly central role in the success of the industry, according to the latest study by Informa Telecoms & Media.
"Mobile broadband has become one of the key growth engines for the mobile industry, with 186 million mobile broadband subscribers worldwide at the end of 2008, up 84 percent from 101 million at end-2007," says Mike Roberts, Principal Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.
By 2013 mobile broadband subscribers will represent almost one-third of total mobile subscribers worldwide.
The mobile broadband uptake was triggered by the combination of widespread mobile broadband network coverage, appealing devices such as USB modems and the iPhone 3G, and competitive flat-rate tariffs.
Flat-rate mobile broadband services with widespread coverage and new devices such as USB modems and the iPhone 3G are a runaway success, and have made mobile broadband one of the most significant strategic and commercial opportunities in the converging mobile and broadband markets.
At the end of 2008 there were more than 400 commercial mobile broadband networks worldwide supporting thousands of different mobile and portable devices and generating billions of dollars in operator revenues.
The mobile broadband markets in the U.S., Japan and Korea saw phenomenal growth in 2008, which led the three markets combined to account for the majority of global mobile broadband subscribers by the end of the year.
For example, all the pieces are falling into place for China Mobile's TD-SCDMA mobile broadband service to gain traction by 2010, and that together with new HSPA, EV-DO and TD-LTE services will drive the country to become the second-largest mobile broadband market worldwide in 2013.
India will be the fourth-largest market in 2013, following BSNL's launch of EV-DO mobile broadband services in 2008 and BSNL's and MTNL's expected launch of HSDPA services in late 2009.
However, mobile broadband will not be immune from the economic downturn, which will pile the pressure on beleaguered equipment vendors and force some operators to scale back or delay major investments, particularly in next-generation systems such as LTE.
"There's no doubt that the downturn will delay LTE deployments, with major operators already citing it as a key factor leading them to push LTE launch dates to 2011-12," Roberts says.
Many operators are also realizing that HSPA and HSPA+ upgrades should meet their needs for the next few years, and will cost a lot less than LTE rollouts. The net result is that the LTE subscribers will not gain momentum until 2013, or later.
However, the overall outlook for the mobile broadband market is still robust.
"Mobile broadband has become one of the key growth engines for the mobile industry, with 186 million mobile broadband subscribers worldwide at the end of 2008, up 84 percent from 101 million at end-2007," says Mike Roberts, Principal Analyst at Informa Telecoms & Media.
By 2013 mobile broadband subscribers will represent almost one-third of total mobile subscribers worldwide.
The mobile broadband uptake was triggered by the combination of widespread mobile broadband network coverage, appealing devices such as USB modems and the iPhone 3G, and competitive flat-rate tariffs.
Flat-rate mobile broadband services with widespread coverage and new devices such as USB modems and the iPhone 3G are a runaway success, and have made mobile broadband one of the most significant strategic and commercial opportunities in the converging mobile and broadband markets.
At the end of 2008 there were more than 400 commercial mobile broadband networks worldwide supporting thousands of different mobile and portable devices and generating billions of dollars in operator revenues.
The mobile broadband markets in the U.S., Japan and Korea saw phenomenal growth in 2008, which led the three markets combined to account for the majority of global mobile broadband subscribers by the end of the year.
For example, all the pieces are falling into place for China Mobile's TD-SCDMA mobile broadband service to gain traction by 2010, and that together with new HSPA, EV-DO and TD-LTE services will drive the country to become the second-largest mobile broadband market worldwide in 2013.
India will be the fourth-largest market in 2013, following BSNL's launch of EV-DO mobile broadband services in 2008 and BSNL's and MTNL's expected launch of HSDPA services in late 2009.
However, mobile broadband will not be immune from the economic downturn, which will pile the pressure on beleaguered equipment vendors and force some operators to scale back or delay major investments, particularly in next-generation systems such as LTE.
"There's no doubt that the downturn will delay LTE deployments, with major operators already citing it as a key factor leading them to push LTE launch dates to 2011-12," Roberts says.
Many operators are also realizing that HSPA and HSPA+ upgrades should meet their needs for the next few years, and will cost a lot less than LTE rollouts. The net result is that the LTE subscribers will not gain momentum until 2013, or later.
However, the overall outlook for the mobile broadband market is still robust.
Monday, March 23, 2009
Digital Terrestrial TV Set Top Box Market
The global financial crisis could endanger many large Digital Terrestrial TV (DTT) deployment projects, which require large amounts of financed capital, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
This setback could cause major delays in DTT conversion programs worldwide, with consumers purchasing fewer Set Top Boxes (STB) as a result.
"Another scenario, however, is more upbeat for the STB market," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.
The economic slowdown could spur governments to fund the DTT transition at an accelerated rate to stimulate the economy. By auctioning off the analog spectrum, governments would receive income.
Hopefully, converting analog spectrum for other uses, such a license-free metro area wireless broadband, will also spur new innovation and opportunity.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Total DTT STB unit shipments will peak at 44 million in 2009.
- Standard Definition (SD) DTT set top box unit shipments will peak in 2011.
- The component value of SD DTT set top boxes will reach nearly $500 million in 2011.
- The European DTT STB market value will peak in 2011 at $1.6 billion.
This setback could cause major delays in DTT conversion programs worldwide, with consumers purchasing fewer Set Top Boxes (STB) as a result.
"Another scenario, however, is more upbeat for the STB market," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.
The economic slowdown could spur governments to fund the DTT transition at an accelerated rate to stimulate the economy. By auctioning off the analog spectrum, governments would receive income.
Hopefully, converting analog spectrum for other uses, such a license-free metro area wireless broadband, will also spur new innovation and opportunity.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Total DTT STB unit shipments will peak at 44 million in 2009.
- Standard Definition (SD) DTT set top box unit shipments will peak in 2011.
- The component value of SD DTT set top boxes will reach nearly $500 million in 2011.
- The European DTT STB market value will peak in 2011 at $1.6 billion.
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Multimedia Revolution: unLabel and unStudio
As the South by Southwest Festival of 2009 comes to an end, let's acknowledge the open unConference events -- as people from all over the world connected together and joined their Indie Music or Independent Film "community of interest" while in Austin, Texas.
I've launched the GeoBrava Media project, in celebration of all the independent talent that stays true to their art-form -- passionately creating new digital media content -- regardless that their work is considered unCommercial by the legacy big-media companies.
Free and Open Distribution Models
The rise of the unLabel music production and open distribution model is a revolt in response to the traditional record label's business practices. Ditto, with the rise of the unStudio video production and open distribution phenomenon.
A multitude of social media networking sites are creating the new open marketplace online, where the vast market supply is freely exposed to the awaiting eclectic market demand.
The independently produced multimedia revolution is disrupting the legacy industries. The barriers to market entry have been lowered, and the gatekeepers of the old model are in a panic as the traffic through their media toll-booths is clearly in a decline.
Rebirth of the Public Interest
Nobody really knows what the future will hold. One thing, however, is certain -- the news and entertainment industry has entered a new era. Big media consolidation has merely made it easier to identify the dying legacy business models.
It's somewhat ironic, but totally within the public interest. Granted, the FCC has merely been a bystander in this process. No matter, the revival has begun.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
U.S. Search Marketing a Win-Win Scenario
As tough times force many people to spend less -- and to be pickier about what they do buy -- online Search is becoming ever more important to marketers.
"The recession is driving marketers to concentrate on gaining new business, even more than on customer retention objectives," says David Hallerman, eMarketer senior analyst. "Search is the ultimate online acquisition tool, and therefore is positioned to do relatively well in this economy."
The four basic search options are paid search, contextual advertising, paid inclusion -- all three are types of advertising -- and Search Engine Optimization (SEO).
All four options will experience increased spending through 2013. By then eMarketer estimates total U.S. search marketing outlays will surpass $23 billion. While paid search traditionally has received the attention and money, as they seek to acquire new customers, marketers are now increasingly turning to SEO.
There are key differences between paid search and SEO.
"Paid search effects are immediate, but marketers need to spend consistently for sponsored-link ads to appear in search queries," says Mr. Hallerman. "SEO takes time, and marketers need to constantly maintain their Websites to sustain high organic results."
As marketers better understand the purpose of Website optimization in their overall campaigns, SEO spending will grow at an even higher yearly rate. Apparently, it's a win-win scenario.
"Customers are going to search engines because they are looking for better deals," says Mr. Hallerman. "And marketers are going to search engines because that's where their customers are."
Friday, March 20, 2009
Video-Enabled Home Network Node Growth
According to the latest market study by The Diffusion Group (TDG), the number of global broadband households will near 440 million by 2010 and top 1.2 billion by 2030.
During that same time, the number of broadband-enabled home networks will grow from 150 million in 2010 (34 percent) to more than 1.0 billion in 2030 (83 percent of broadband homes). With that required infrastructure in place, the opportunity for broadband-enabled services, especially online video, will grow dramatically.
TDG's study points to a confluence of network-enabled applications and services that will occur within the next 10 years which will drive the diffusion of home networks and network-enabled media applications.
According to TDG, video delivery over the Internet is a primary part of this future. By 2020, virtually every broadband-enabled home will have a multitude of network-connected video platforms. Though the pace at which this occurs will vary by region, its inevitability is unquestionable.
Key trends from the TDG market study include:
- Consumer electronic vendors will embed Internet support and IP video subsystems into their mainstream platforms -- meaning, even average consumers will be buying new CE platforms with native Internet support.
- Incumbent TV providers will incorporate walled-garden broadband video applications and services into their Pay-TV experience -- meaning, set-top boxes will be required to support broadband connectivity.
- TDG notes that by 2020, more than 1.6 billion households around the world will have access to some form of home video service, with Asia enjoying the most rapid growth. These service additions will in many cases be broadband-based or hybrid in nature.
- Given these factors, TDG expects the number of non-portable network-enabled video nodes within global homes will reach 3.6 billion by 2020 and top five billion by 2030.
During that same time, the number of broadband-enabled home networks will grow from 150 million in 2010 (34 percent) to more than 1.0 billion in 2030 (83 percent of broadband homes). With that required infrastructure in place, the opportunity for broadband-enabled services, especially online video, will grow dramatically.
TDG's study points to a confluence of network-enabled applications and services that will occur within the next 10 years which will drive the diffusion of home networks and network-enabled media applications.
According to TDG, video delivery over the Internet is a primary part of this future. By 2020, virtually every broadband-enabled home will have a multitude of network-connected video platforms. Though the pace at which this occurs will vary by region, its inevitability is unquestionable.
Key trends from the TDG market study include:
- Consumer electronic vendors will embed Internet support and IP video subsystems into their mainstream platforms -- meaning, even average consumers will be buying new CE platforms with native Internet support.
- Incumbent TV providers will incorporate walled-garden broadband video applications and services into their Pay-TV experience -- meaning, set-top boxes will be required to support broadband connectivity.
- TDG notes that by 2020, more than 1.6 billion households around the world will have access to some form of home video service, with Asia enjoying the most rapid growth. These service additions will in many cases be broadband-based or hybrid in nature.
- Given these factors, TDG expects the number of non-portable network-enabled video nodes within global homes will reach 3.6 billion by 2020 and top five billion by 2030.
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Central and Eastern Europe Mobile Market
Mobile service providers in Central and Eastern Europe will increase their annual service revenues by more than 30 percent to $77 billion in 2013, according to the latest market study by Informa Telecoms & Media.
As the rise in voice revenues levels off from 2011, overall growth will be driven by a doubling in the value of data revenues which will reach $23.4 billion in 2013.
Growth will be primarily driven by continued expansion of the mobile subscription base, which will increase almost 20 percenet, from 447 million at end-2008 to 534 million at end-2013.
Growth will also be fuelled by the increasing tendency for people to maintain two or more SIM cards in active use -- in some cases buying the second for a mobile broadband connection.
Annual mobile data revenues in Central and Eastern Europe will increase 107 percent from $11.3 billion in 2008 to $23.4 billion in 2013. As a result, the proportion of revenue generated by data is forecast to increase by more than half, from 19.4 percent in 2008 to 30.4 percent by 2013.
Voice revenue from existing subscriptions will also rise gradually, thanks to increased usage: leading Russian operators MTS and VimpelCom, for example, have already seen average outgoing and incoming minutes of use (MOU) exceed 200 per subscription per month in 2008.
Higher monthly rental incomes are also contributing to revenue growth in markets where operators have concentrated on migrating prepaid subscriptions onto contracts -- a trend that will continue to have a positive impact on revenues in the region over the next five years.
The share of subscriptions on contracts in the Czech Republic, for example, increased by 3.3 percentage points over 2008, helping to shore up blended ARPU, as revenue from contract subscriptions increased.
Although voice revenues, particularly in the enterprise sector, are likely to be suppressed by the contraction of the region's economies, operators have expressed optimism that mobile data services will prove resilient.
As the rise in voice revenues levels off from 2011, overall growth will be driven by a doubling in the value of data revenues which will reach $23.4 billion in 2013.
Growth will be primarily driven by continued expansion of the mobile subscription base, which will increase almost 20 percenet, from 447 million at end-2008 to 534 million at end-2013.
Growth will also be fuelled by the increasing tendency for people to maintain two or more SIM cards in active use -- in some cases buying the second for a mobile broadband connection.
Annual mobile data revenues in Central and Eastern Europe will increase 107 percent from $11.3 billion in 2008 to $23.4 billion in 2013. As a result, the proportion of revenue generated by data is forecast to increase by more than half, from 19.4 percent in 2008 to 30.4 percent by 2013.
Voice revenue from existing subscriptions will also rise gradually, thanks to increased usage: leading Russian operators MTS and VimpelCom, for example, have already seen average outgoing and incoming minutes of use (MOU) exceed 200 per subscription per month in 2008.
Higher monthly rental incomes are also contributing to revenue growth in markets where operators have concentrated on migrating prepaid subscriptions onto contracts -- a trend that will continue to have a positive impact on revenues in the region over the next five years.
The share of subscriptions on contracts in the Czech Republic, for example, increased by 3.3 percentage points over 2008, helping to shore up blended ARPU, as revenue from contract subscriptions increased.
Although voice revenues, particularly in the enterprise sector, are likely to be suppressed by the contraction of the region's economies, operators have expressed optimism that mobile data services will prove resilient.
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Technology, Media and Telecom Disruption
Many traditional Technology, Media and Telecom (TMT) companies are seeing their business models rapidly erode as communication services, news, information and entertainment content all shift to the Internet.
For most telecommunication service providers and media companies, fundamental core business survival is now at stake, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
These legacy organizations must do more than simply adding functions, such as links to social networking sites, micro-blog messaging, chat rooms, and user comments or feedback. While these functions may help marketing and customer retention efforts, they do not represent a meaningful Web 2.0 business model.
"Web 2.0 business models encompass an ecosystem of partnerships, designed to leverage both internal and external knowledge and assets" says Keith Nissen, In-Stat analyst.
End to end ownership of the entire business model is a lost cause. Telecom operators, media companies and others that are directly affected by the current shift must modify and evolve their business models.
Newspapers acted too slowly to the apparent change in their primary sources of revenue, while clinging to their old ways. They are proof-positive that denial can be fatal -- especially when accelerated market disruption occurs.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- 78 percent of heavy Internet users regularly use two or more social networking sites.
- Broadband service providers have a key opportunity to provide consumers a "Personal Information Center" (PIC) portal. For example, 66.6 percent of respondents are very or somewhat interested in aggregating access and sharing of personal images through a PIC.
- Personalized content delivery and advertising is a key success factor. Currently, two-thirds of users never click on internet advertising.
- Century-old business models are obsolete. The newspaper industry's downward spiral will result in a loss of a projected $25 billion in revenue annually.
- The IP media phone, potentially the consumer's fourth screen may be an ideal web 2.0 service delivery device. By the end of 2013, In-Stat forecasts that over 16 million U.S. households will have a media phone.
For most telecommunication service providers and media companies, fundamental core business survival is now at stake, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
These legacy organizations must do more than simply adding functions, such as links to social networking sites, micro-blog messaging, chat rooms, and user comments or feedback. While these functions may help marketing and customer retention efforts, they do not represent a meaningful Web 2.0 business model.
"Web 2.0 business models encompass an ecosystem of partnerships, designed to leverage both internal and external knowledge and assets" says Keith Nissen, In-Stat analyst.
End to end ownership of the entire business model is a lost cause. Telecom operators, media companies and others that are directly affected by the current shift must modify and evolve their business models.
Newspapers acted too slowly to the apparent change in their primary sources of revenue, while clinging to their old ways. They are proof-positive that denial can be fatal -- especially when accelerated market disruption occurs.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- 78 percent of heavy Internet users regularly use two or more social networking sites.
- Broadband service providers have a key opportunity to provide consumers a "Personal Information Center" (PIC) portal. For example, 66.6 percent of respondents are very or somewhat interested in aggregating access and sharing of personal images through a PIC.
- Personalized content delivery and advertising is a key success factor. Currently, two-thirds of users never click on internet advertising.
- Century-old business models are obsolete. The newspaper industry's downward spiral will result in a loss of a projected $25 billion in revenue annually.
- The IP media phone, potentially the consumer's fourth screen may be an ideal web 2.0 service delivery device. By the end of 2013, In-Stat forecasts that over 16 million U.S. households will have a media phone.
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Joining TV and Social Networking Experience
The online social networking experience is moving to the television screen -- driven by a young audience interested in video features such as multi-player games, chat, and content discovery.
This trend will help increase U.S. advertising spending in social media to almost $3 billion by 2013, according to Parks Associates.
The international research firm's market study finds over one-fourth of broadband users ages 18-24 are interested in social media features on the TV. Key applications include multiplayer gaming, in-program chat, and most watched lists.
At the same time, 23 percent of U.S. broadband households want to view content from sites like YouTube and Flickr on their TVs.
"For younger consumers in particular, their appetite for social experiences don't end on the computer screen but are enhanced via their access on TVs and mobile phones," said Kurt Scherf , vice president, principal analyst, Parks Associates.
"This expansion of social media has implications for service providers, advertisers, and CE manufacturers as well as the networking sites." Parks Associates forecasts 95 million social networking users by 2013. This diverse population will have a variety of different needs and wants.
For example, threats like the Koobface worm, which targets Facebook users, underscore the need for integrated customer support solutions that can address social networking security issues. Broadband service providers could combine these offerings with their network support to sell a complete protection package.
This trend will help increase U.S. advertising spending in social media to almost $3 billion by 2013, according to Parks Associates.
The international research firm's market study finds over one-fourth of broadband users ages 18-24 are interested in social media features on the TV. Key applications include multiplayer gaming, in-program chat, and most watched lists.
At the same time, 23 percent of U.S. broadband households want to view content from sites like YouTube and Flickr on their TVs.
"For younger consumers in particular, their appetite for social experiences don't end on the computer screen but are enhanced via their access on TVs and mobile phones," said Kurt Scherf , vice president, principal analyst, Parks Associates.
"This expansion of social media has implications for service providers, advertisers, and CE manufacturers as well as the networking sites." Parks Associates forecasts 95 million social networking users by 2013. This diverse population will have a variety of different needs and wants.
For example, threats like the Koobface worm, which targets Facebook users, underscore the need for integrated customer support solutions that can address social networking security issues. Broadband service providers could combine these offerings with their network support to sell a complete protection package.
Digital Signage has Mixed Growth Potential
The digital signage market in the United States -- including hardware, software, installation, and maintenance services -- is expected to grow by about 33 percent in 2009, according to a new market study by ABI Research.
This latest forecast factors in the likely declines due to the recessionary economic environment, showing a healthy growth rate despite the current uncertain financial conditions.
There are several reasons for the positive outlook. Most traditional advertising media are losing their appeal. Consequently, digital signage has emerged as a potential way to deliver highly customized and targeted messaging in a variety of public locations.
And in a fast-changing world, the ability digital signage to be updated in real-time is a significant benefit. Retail, education, hospitality and corporate communication are apparently the first verticals deploying digital signage.
Adoption is also encouraged by improvements to a display's appearance, the generally falling prices of electronics goods, and less expensive local data storage. The latest generations of digital signage that include interactivity can offer a more compelling experience to users and provide valuable consumer feedback to marketers.
However, there are factors working against digital signage. The market is fragmented and comprised of a large number of smaller players, making it difficult for customers to identify the solutions and technologies they want to implement.
Data security concerns and a lack of standards also tend to impede the growth of this video-related industry. Cost is also a factor, especially now. Although digital signage technology promises increases in sales and revenue, such growth is not immediate.
The investment in installing a network can still be very high depending on the number of sites and the cost of the other components. Yet, businesses with ready access to capital may see a real opportunity in this technology.
This latest forecast factors in the likely declines due to the recessionary economic environment, showing a healthy growth rate despite the current uncertain financial conditions.
There are several reasons for the positive outlook. Most traditional advertising media are losing their appeal. Consequently, digital signage has emerged as a potential way to deliver highly customized and targeted messaging in a variety of public locations.
And in a fast-changing world, the ability digital signage to be updated in real-time is a significant benefit. Retail, education, hospitality and corporate communication are apparently the first verticals deploying digital signage.
Adoption is also encouraged by improvements to a display's appearance, the generally falling prices of electronics goods, and less expensive local data storage. The latest generations of digital signage that include interactivity can offer a more compelling experience to users and provide valuable consumer feedback to marketers.
However, there are factors working against digital signage. The market is fragmented and comprised of a large number of smaller players, making it difficult for customers to identify the solutions and technologies they want to implement.
Data security concerns and a lack of standards also tend to impede the growth of this video-related industry. Cost is also a factor, especially now. Although digital signage technology promises increases in sales and revenue, such growth is not immediate.
The investment in installing a network can still be very high depending on the number of sites and the cost of the other components. Yet, businesses with ready access to capital may see a real opportunity in this technology.
Monday, March 16, 2009
Worldwide IT Spending on Cloud Services
According to IDC, worldwide IT spending on cloud services will grow almost threefold, reaching $42 billion, by 2012.
As the cloud computing model offers an efficient way for businesses to acquire and use IT, IDC expects its adoption to be amplified by the cost-cutting needs of most organizations today.
In a recent IDC survey conducted with 696 IT executives and CIOs across Asia-Pacific excluding Japan (APEJ) to gather their views, understanding, current usage and planned usage of cloud computing, it was found that 11 percent of the respondents are already using cloud-based solutions.
A further 41 percent of the respondents indicated that they are either evaluating cloud solutions for use in their businesses, or already piloting cloud solutions.
When asked about their opinion of the current state of cloud computing, 17 percent of the respondents stated that although cloud computing is very promising, there are currently not enough services available to make it compelling.
For IT vendors to be successful in the cloud market, they will have to address user's cost concerns. The survey also revealed that more than 50 percent of the respondents indicated cost cutting as the key driver behind the adoption of cloud computing.
However, it is also important to note that supplying low-cost services alone will not guarantee success, as users are also indicating that any cloud solution they buy must offer competitive pricing, offer Service Level Agreement (SLAs) and offer complete solutions.
As the cloud computing model offers an efficient way for businesses to acquire and use IT, IDC expects its adoption to be amplified by the cost-cutting needs of most organizations today.
In a recent IDC survey conducted with 696 IT executives and CIOs across Asia-Pacific excluding Japan (APEJ) to gather their views, understanding, current usage and planned usage of cloud computing, it was found that 11 percent of the respondents are already using cloud-based solutions.
A further 41 percent of the respondents indicated that they are either evaluating cloud solutions for use in their businesses, or already piloting cloud solutions.
When asked about their opinion of the current state of cloud computing, 17 percent of the respondents stated that although cloud computing is very promising, there are currently not enough services available to make it compelling.
For IT vendors to be successful in the cloud market, they will have to address user's cost concerns. The survey also revealed that more than 50 percent of the respondents indicated cost cutting as the key driver behind the adoption of cloud computing.
However, it is also important to note that supplying low-cost services alone will not guarantee success, as users are also indicating that any cloud solution they buy must offer competitive pricing, offer Service Level Agreement (SLAs) and offer complete solutions.
Saturday, March 14, 2009
Quest for the Gullible Consumer of Advertising
eMarketer estimates there were about 116 million U.S. user-generated content consumers in 2008, along with 82.5 million content creators. Both numbers are forecast to climb significantly by 2013.
Clearly, today's marketer must understand the various activities that constitute digital content creation and consumption. And, to appreciate the complexities of the content ecosystem. But, is it really possible to describe a quantum leap in culture by simply applying new persona labels?
In a 2008 Forrester Research attempted to segment user-generated content participants into the following groups:
Creators: Those who make social content go.
Critics: Those who respond to content via reviews, comments, forums.
Collectors: Those who aggregate and organize content using RSS feeds, tags and voting sites.
Joiners: Those who gather around social communities.
Spectators: Those who consume user-generated content but do not respond to it publicly.
Inactives: Those who neither create nor consume social content.
eMarketer believes the segmentation approach raises more questions than answers. Do critics and collectors create content by generating reviews, comments and lists, or are they simply reacting to content posted by others? Are joiners actually part of a content exchange if their main interest in social media is to use online networks for interaction and communication?
eMarketer says that marketers need to break free from traditional paradigms and accept "a fluid exchange of marketing information" across multiple media. That means instead of trying to control brand messaging, marketers must be prepared to share control with their customers and prospects. Piece of cake, right? Hardly.
It means marketers should encourage their customers to post feedback, even if those efforts put the marketer's product in a harsh light. And, it means marketers should tailor their campaigns to people who fall into all those gray areas that defy simplistic labeling.
Frankly, I now believe that all areas of digital media are beyond the scope of traditionally myopic segmentation practices. Over time, as most of the population becomes a prosumer in some shape or form, the whole basis for legacy marketing and PR methodology will be obsolete.
The notion that marketing is all about the process of finding an uninformed, impressionable, somewhat gullible and un-opinionated consumer will become pure fantasy. Perhaps that quest is already a lost cause, cast aside by all but the most naive marketers among us.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Social Media Influencers Displace Advertising
Visited by over two-thirds of the global online population, member communities -- which includes both social networks and blogs -- has become the fourth most popular online category, ahead of personal email.
It is growing twice as fast as any of the other four largest sectors (search, portals, PC software and email), according to the latest Nielsen market study.
About 67 percent of the global online population already accesses member community sites, and their increasing adoption show no sign of slowing. Social networking will continue to alter not just the global online landscape, but the consumer experience at large.
According to the Nielsen report, Facebook is visited monthly by three in every 10 people online across the nine markets in which Nielsen tracks social networking use. However, Orkut in Brazil has the largest domestic online reach (70 percent) of any social network in these markets.
The report provides insights into the changing size and composition of the global social networking audience, plus the increasing share of Internet time for which it accounts. The report also analyzes what advertisers and publishers can do to take advantage of the social network phenomenon.
However, other research studies already indicate that traditional advertising is often ignored by those using social networks. Moreover, trusted recommendations of products and services by individual social media influencers has displaced advertising as the most effective way to reach consumers.
Other findings of the study include:
- One in every 11 minutes online globally is accounted for by social network and blogging sites.
- The social network and blogging audience is becoming more diverse in terms of age: the biggest increase in visitors during 2008 to Web sites globally came from the 35-49 year old age group (+11.3 million people).
- Mobile phones are playing an increasingly important role in social networking. Nielsen found UK mobile Web users have the greatest propensity to visit a social network through their handset, with 23 percent (2 million people) doing so, compared to 19 percent in the U.S. (10.6 million people). These numbers are a big increase over last year -- up 249 percent in the UK and 156 percent in the U.S. market.
Update: Razorfish shared some insightful and thought provoking "Trends in Social Influence Marketing" for 2009, and beyond.
It is growing twice as fast as any of the other four largest sectors (search, portals, PC software and email), according to the latest Nielsen market study.
About 67 percent of the global online population already accesses member community sites, and their increasing adoption show no sign of slowing. Social networking will continue to alter not just the global online landscape, but the consumer experience at large.
According to the Nielsen report, Facebook is visited monthly by three in every 10 people online across the nine markets in which Nielsen tracks social networking use. However, Orkut in Brazil has the largest domestic online reach (70 percent) of any social network in these markets.
The report provides insights into the changing size and composition of the global social networking audience, plus the increasing share of Internet time for which it accounts. The report also analyzes what advertisers and publishers can do to take advantage of the social network phenomenon.
However, other research studies already indicate that traditional advertising is often ignored by those using social networks. Moreover, trusted recommendations of products and services by individual social media influencers has displaced advertising as the most effective way to reach consumers.
Other findings of the study include:
- One in every 11 minutes online globally is accounted for by social network and blogging sites.
- The social network and blogging audience is becoming more diverse in terms of age: the biggest increase in visitors during 2008 to Web sites globally came from the 35-49 year old age group (+11.3 million people).
- Mobile phones are playing an increasingly important role in social networking. Nielsen found UK mobile Web users have the greatest propensity to visit a social network through their handset, with 23 percent (2 million people) doing so, compared to 19 percent in the U.S. (10.6 million people). These numbers are a big increase over last year -- up 249 percent in the UK and 156 percent in the U.S. market.
Update: Razorfish shared some insightful and thought provoking "Trends in Social Influence Marketing" for 2009, and beyond.
Internet Usage Interrupted Briefly by the TV
The U.S. household spending on pay-TV, broadband, and mobile phone services will be about the same for most consumers, but about 15 percent apparently intend to cut back. That's likely subject to a change in their employment status, of course.
As a result, In-Stat estimates that consumer spending across these three service segments could see nearly a $5 billion decrease during the next 12 months. Yet their recent survey reveals that broadband service is among the most integral parts of people lives.
Why? Over 66 million consumers across demographic categories are using the Internet while watching television. I call this just-in-case TV viewing. Leave the TV on, volume lowered, periodically scanning channels -- in the hope that something engaging appears. Meanwhile, TV advertisers still pay a premium for this media. Truly amazing.
"Some male age groups had 40 to 50 percent of respondents using a PC while watching TV, and about 30 percent of females under the age of 40 are also using a PC while watching TV," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.
New approaches using online web portals synchronized to a TV program will continue to develop, because they present no new costs. Cable TV operators also face increasing competition from lightweight services that deliver popular Cable programming, supplemented by content delivered via broadband.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Consumer multitasking while watching TV varies significantly depending on demographic characteristics, but it's a growth trend.
- Several companies are identifying new opportunities to align TV to people simultaneously viewing a related web site.
- Low-cost Netbook PCs could represent a $2.4 billion opportunity; presumably if sold to people who use it in front of their TV.
- No surprise, the biggest decrease in spending on mobile, broadband and pay-TV services will come from households with annual income below $35,000.
As a result, In-Stat estimates that consumer spending across these three service segments could see nearly a $5 billion decrease during the next 12 months. Yet their recent survey reveals that broadband service is among the most integral parts of people lives.
Why? Over 66 million consumers across demographic categories are using the Internet while watching television. I call this just-in-case TV viewing. Leave the TV on, volume lowered, periodically scanning channels -- in the hope that something engaging appears. Meanwhile, TV advertisers still pay a premium for this media. Truly amazing.
"Some male age groups had 40 to 50 percent of respondents using a PC while watching TV, and about 30 percent of females under the age of 40 are also using a PC while watching TV," says Gerry Kaufhold, In-Stat analyst.
New approaches using online web portals synchronized to a TV program will continue to develop, because they present no new costs. Cable TV operators also face increasing competition from lightweight services that deliver popular Cable programming, supplemented by content delivered via broadband.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Consumer multitasking while watching TV varies significantly depending on demographic characteristics, but it's a growth trend.
- Several companies are identifying new opportunities to align TV to people simultaneously viewing a related web site.
- Low-cost Netbook PCs could represent a $2.4 billion opportunity; presumably if sold to people who use it in front of their TV.
- No surprise, the biggest decrease in spending on mobile, broadband and pay-TV services will come from households with annual income below $35,000.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Opportunities in Mobile Content and Services
Informa Telecoms & Media expects the Mobile Content and Services market to generate over $340 billion in end-user service revenues in 2013, up from around $183 billion in 2008.
The two most significant service categories for revenues in 2008 were mobile messaging and mobile Internet, which together contributed over 80 percent of the total revenues.
In recent years, many new players have emerged in the mobile content and services value chain and numerous merger, acquisition, and partnership activities have taken place.
The traditional players have been joined by a slew of new companies and a significant list of players from other markets including the likes of Google and Apple. It is these companies that present the most credible threat to mobile operators and to the degree of control and influence they have over mobile subscribers.
"In the coming years, the area that will see the most activity and will make or break many players in the mobile content and services value chain is that of the distribution channels" says Shailendra Pandey, Senior Analyst at Informa.
Off-portal (direct-to-consumer) mobile content distribution is becoming common in most developed markets, and in those where it isn’t, operators are under increasing pressure to open up their user base to third parties.
The billing relationship operators have with subscribers, marks them apart from other companies, allowing them to exert significant levels of control over what content the majority of subscribers have access to.
However, research shows that this picture is evolving as brand owners and media companies are increasingly looking to leverage the consumer loyalty they have developed through their years of market presence and invest in direct-to-consumer channels.
The two most significant service categories for revenues in 2008 were mobile messaging and mobile Internet, which together contributed over 80 percent of the total revenues.
In recent years, many new players have emerged in the mobile content and services value chain and numerous merger, acquisition, and partnership activities have taken place.
The traditional players have been joined by a slew of new companies and a significant list of players from other markets including the likes of Google and Apple. It is these companies that present the most credible threat to mobile operators and to the degree of control and influence they have over mobile subscribers.
"In the coming years, the area that will see the most activity and will make or break many players in the mobile content and services value chain is that of the distribution channels" says Shailendra Pandey, Senior Analyst at Informa.
Off-portal (direct-to-consumer) mobile content distribution is becoming common in most developed markets, and in those where it isn’t, operators are under increasing pressure to open up their user base to third parties.
The billing relationship operators have with subscribers, marks them apart from other companies, allowing them to exert significant levels of control over what content the majority of subscribers have access to.
However, research shows that this picture is evolving as brand owners and media companies are increasingly looking to leverage the consumer loyalty they have developed through their years of market presence and invest in direct-to-consumer channels.
Global Mobile Infrastructure and Subscribers
Infonetics Research released the fourth quarter (4Q08) edition of its Mobile Infrastructure and Subscribers report this week. Infonetics' quarterly report provides worldwide and regional market size, market share, analysis, and forecasts through 2013.
"The large majority of mobile operators have healthy balance sheets, so the global economic turmoil roiling many markets is not likely to have a significant impact on the mobile network infrastructure market, with a few exceptions in hard-hit regions mainly due to currency devaluation" said Stephane Teral, Infonetics Research.
Traffic growth remains unabated and many networks are fairly loaded. China is in the midst of massive 3G rollouts, and India will soon follow, fueling the market in 2009.
Infonetics market study found the following:
- The worldwide mobile network infrastructure equipment market grew 6 percent to $50.8 billion in 2008 over 2007, and will continue to grow in 2009 and 2010.
- Currency appreciation is having a significant impact on vendors in this space, with the U.S. and Hong Kong dollars, Indian rupee, yuan/renminbi, and yen all up; only Ericsson, which reports in Swedish kroner, was not significantly affected.
- Declines are expected in the overall market starting in 2011, led by losses in the behemoth RAN segment due to near coverage saturation and price pressure from operators.
- 2008 was another record year for GSM rollouts, pushing the GSM network equipment market up 1 percent, as major 3G rollouts materialized in many markets across the globe.
- The 3G GSM network equipment market jumped 32 percent in 4Q08 over 3Q08 and will continue growing in 2009, driven by massive 3G build-outs in China and India.
- The emerging mobile packet core and mobile softswitching segments continue to be the brightest spots of the mobile infrastructure market, driven by an unstoppable migration to IP.
- The TD-SCDMA equipment market in China is off to a strong start.
- Ericsson gained market share in 4Q08, strengthening its #1 position for overall RAN equipment revenue, ahead of Nokia Siemens, Alcatel-Lucent, Huawei, and Nortel.
- Huawei snagged the #1 spot from Nokia Siemens in the fast-growing mobile switching subsystem market in 4Q08, putting them in the lead for 2008 overall.
- Worldwide HLR revenue grew 21 percent in 4Q08 over 3Q08.
"The large majority of mobile operators have healthy balance sheets, so the global economic turmoil roiling many markets is not likely to have a significant impact on the mobile network infrastructure market, with a few exceptions in hard-hit regions mainly due to currency devaluation" said Stephane Teral, Infonetics Research.
Traffic growth remains unabated and many networks are fairly loaded. China is in the midst of massive 3G rollouts, and India will soon follow, fueling the market in 2009.
Infonetics market study found the following:
- The worldwide mobile network infrastructure equipment market grew 6 percent to $50.8 billion in 2008 over 2007, and will continue to grow in 2009 and 2010.
- Currency appreciation is having a significant impact on vendors in this space, with the U.S. and Hong Kong dollars, Indian rupee, yuan/renminbi, and yen all up; only Ericsson, which reports in Swedish kroner, was not significantly affected.
- Declines are expected in the overall market starting in 2011, led by losses in the behemoth RAN segment due to near coverage saturation and price pressure from operators.
- 2008 was another record year for GSM rollouts, pushing the GSM network equipment market up 1 percent, as major 3G rollouts materialized in many markets across the globe.
- The 3G GSM network equipment market jumped 32 percent in 4Q08 over 3Q08 and will continue growing in 2009, driven by massive 3G build-outs in China and India.
- The emerging mobile packet core and mobile softswitching segments continue to be the brightest spots of the mobile infrastructure market, driven by an unstoppable migration to IP.
- The TD-SCDMA equipment market in China is off to a strong start.
- Ericsson gained market share in 4Q08, strengthening its #1 position for overall RAN equipment revenue, ahead of Nokia Siemens, Alcatel-Lucent, Huawei, and Nortel.
- Huawei snagged the #1 spot from Nokia Siemens in the fast-growing mobile switching subsystem market in 4Q08, putting them in the lead for 2008 overall.
- Worldwide HLR revenue grew 21 percent in 4Q08 over 3Q08.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
SXSW Recognizes Multimedia Convergence
There once was a time when a few big media companies ruled over the news and entertainment industry. All was calm, as long as everyone in a position of power agreed to play by the same dysfunctional rules.
Access to the legacy content distribution ecosystem was tightly controlled and longstanding restraint of trade barriers were successful in ensuring that most attempts at innovation never saw the light of day.
Tactics like pay-for-play payola schemes were able to perpetuate the content scarcity model that fueled the industry's efforts to limit and manipulate what was considered popular (pop), and how it was going to be marketed to the awaiting mass-media audience.
The macroeconomic theory of supply and demand can not reach its full potential in a closed marketplace model that restricts access to the chosen few participants. However, the oligopoly regime of legacy big media companies loathed any notion of creating an open market.
Re-Booting the Media Business Model
Make no mistake, the current trend of uncontrolled online social networking activity is a direct affront to the traditional news and entertainment industry. The social media production, distribution and hyper-linked syndication phenomenon has been disruptive to the industry's otherwise insular status quo.
The emergence of the Digital Freedom campaign was feared by all big media moguls, and also those who choose to align with their legacy business practices. That fear is valid, when you consider the ongoing financial viability of these companies -- as they're forced to compete on a truly level playing field, where the barriers to entry are lowered.
So, perhaps you're wondering, what does all this insight have to do with the South by Southwest (SXSW) Festival that begins in Austin, Texas this week? Let me explain.
Collaboration: Multimedia Convergence
The introduction of an online collaboration platform could enable a flurry of non-sanctioned SXSW unconference activity during the coming weeks, as registered participants self-organize into cross-industry communities of interest. However, people not registered for the event can't participate.
The launch of the my.SXSW social networking and scheduling tool marks a significant evolutionary step for the territorial organizers of the three traditionally siloed -- and intentionally isolated -- clusters of people and activities within the film, music and interactive groups.
SXSW teamed up with The Social Collective to provide anywhere/anytime access to all the official films, music showcases, parties, interactive panels and other events via my.SXSW.
I recently asked Chris Bucchere, company founder and CEO, in a blog comment exchange if the use of their platform would help to finally unite those SXSW participants who have wanted to explore personal connection opportunities by interacting with their cross-industry peers.
I will not be attending SXSW this year, and therefore I'm not able to access the platform and report on the actual results. So, I will have to rely on the feedback from friends and associates.
Regardless, I'm hopeful that the SXSW organizers have embraced the idea that free and open multimedia convergence has moved into the mainstream of the industry, and that they can finally recognize the natural inclination and apparent need for the three now related clusters to engage each other in a dialogue.
Updates:
- CK Thurber says "David, so far, it seems my.SXSW is a great idea… just 2 years too late."
- While SXSW prints and distributes official event directories, Shed.org produced the list of "Unofficial Music Events".
- Instead of my.SXSW, most people are using Twitter #sxsx to connect, and some used other open sites like Britekite.
- However, apparently Twitter saturation ruins the experience.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Upside for Mobile Entertainment Services
According to Portio Research, mobile phone entertainment services have come a long way since their introduction in the form of mono-ringtones in the late nineties, with operators today delivering diverse services such as streaming audio and video, and multi-player games across high speed networks on to advanced handsets.
In 2008, mobile entertainment services -- including mobile music, mobile games and mobile video services -- generated worldwide revenues of nearly $24 billion, and this figure is set to rise to a market value of $47.2 billion by end-2013.
Mobile music continues to be the dominant component of the mobile entertainment services pie, however, within mobile music, ringtones -- the pioneering first entertainment service -- have gradually given way to advanced services, such as ringback tones, streaming audio and full-track downloads.
Worldwide mobile music revenue stood at $11.7 billion at the end of 2008 and is forecast to hit $19.2 billion at the end of 2013.
Mobile games have also shown strong growth recently and will, in all probability, become as big as mobile music in the years to come. With a slew of different options, such as Java, BREW, SMS-based or Browser-based games, mobile gaming has evolved beyond recognition since Nokia launched the Snake, back in 1997.
The value of the worldwide mobile gaming reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2008 and Portio predicts it will grow to $9.8 billion by year-end 2013.
Mobile video services are expected to grow rapidly in the years to come. Detractors of mobile video have previously cited poor handset quality as one of the biggest reasons why these services are yet to take off.
However, with the launch of more viewer-friendly handsets, such as the iPhone, mobile video services are expected to quickly gain popularity. Portio forecasts that worldwide revenues from mobile video will nearly triple to reach $18.2 billion by end-2013, up from $6.7 billion at end-2008.
Other mobile entertainment services are also given coverage in this market study. Among these, the mobile gambling market is projected to grow significantly in the near future, and will be a big business driver for MNOs -- Europe alone is expected to generate $3.2 billion in annual revenue by end-2010.
In 2008, mobile entertainment services -- including mobile music, mobile games and mobile video services -- generated worldwide revenues of nearly $24 billion, and this figure is set to rise to a market value of $47.2 billion by end-2013.
Mobile music continues to be the dominant component of the mobile entertainment services pie, however, within mobile music, ringtones -- the pioneering first entertainment service -- have gradually given way to advanced services, such as ringback tones, streaming audio and full-track downloads.
Worldwide mobile music revenue stood at $11.7 billion at the end of 2008 and is forecast to hit $19.2 billion at the end of 2013.
Mobile games have also shown strong growth recently and will, in all probability, become as big as mobile music in the years to come. With a slew of different options, such as Java, BREW, SMS-based or Browser-based games, mobile gaming has evolved beyond recognition since Nokia launched the Snake, back in 1997.
The value of the worldwide mobile gaming reached $5.5 billion by the end of 2008 and Portio predicts it will grow to $9.8 billion by year-end 2013.
Mobile video services are expected to grow rapidly in the years to come. Detractors of mobile video have previously cited poor handset quality as one of the biggest reasons why these services are yet to take off.
However, with the launch of more viewer-friendly handsets, such as the iPhone, mobile video services are expected to quickly gain popularity. Portio forecasts that worldwide revenues from mobile video will nearly triple to reach $18.2 billion by end-2013, up from $6.7 billion at end-2008.
Other mobile entertainment services are also given coverage in this market study. Among these, the mobile gambling market is projected to grow significantly in the near future, and will be a big business driver for MNOs -- Europe alone is expected to generate $3.2 billion in annual revenue by end-2010.
Monday, March 09, 2009
Semiconductor Market Free Fall is Troubling
The sharp global economic meltdown which began in late 2007 is now affecting consumer and IT spending in a very significant way. The semiconductor market, which was one of the first industries to be affected, remains in a state of fluid turbulence.
Semiconductors are an integral part of almost every electronic device and the broad base declines in units shipped resulting from deteriorating demand and expectations for continued weakness going forward has driven a lower outlook for the industry this year.
Following a slight revenue decline of 2 percent in 2008, primarily due to a very weak fourth quarter, the worldwide semiconductor market will not recover until 2010. In fact, IDC expects a further revenue decline of 22 percent in 2009, due to double digit declines in unit shipments of key system markets, low utilization rates, and price erosion.
This abrupt slowdown will not only affect the U.S. and Europe, but also Japan and the overall Asia/Pacific regions.
IDC's Worldwide Semiconductor Applications Forecast, which covers over 55 of the largest device applications, reports that key device applications such as personal computers, consumer, and mobile phones are all experiencing a significant decline in units shipped.
This, coupled with ample ASP erosion, is aiding in the 22+ percent free fall decline forecasted by IDC for this year. "The semiconductor industry downturn will be prolonged by macroeconomic uncertainty this year," said Mario Morales, vice president for Semiconductor Research at IDC.
With demand visibility low, utilization rates at frozen levels, and supplier inventories growing because of deteriorating demand targets, IDC does not expect year-over-year growth for semiconductor revenues until the second quarter of 2010.
"The semiconductor market, which is tightly correlated to GDP, will not reach an inflection point until GDP rises and consumer spending rebounds," added Brianne Lovett, research manager for Worldwide Semiconductor Market Forecaster at IDC.
"The semiconductor market will begin to stabilize at the end of 2009 and improve in 2010 with a positive growth rate. However, the market will not rise to the levels seen in 2007 and 2008, until beyond 2011."
Semiconductors are an integral part of almost every electronic device and the broad base declines in units shipped resulting from deteriorating demand and expectations for continued weakness going forward has driven a lower outlook for the industry this year.
Following a slight revenue decline of 2 percent in 2008, primarily due to a very weak fourth quarter, the worldwide semiconductor market will not recover until 2010. In fact, IDC expects a further revenue decline of 22 percent in 2009, due to double digit declines in unit shipments of key system markets, low utilization rates, and price erosion.
This abrupt slowdown will not only affect the U.S. and Europe, but also Japan and the overall Asia/Pacific regions.
IDC's Worldwide Semiconductor Applications Forecast, which covers over 55 of the largest device applications, reports that key device applications such as personal computers, consumer, and mobile phones are all experiencing a significant decline in units shipped.
This, coupled with ample ASP erosion, is aiding in the 22+ percent free fall decline forecasted by IDC for this year. "The semiconductor industry downturn will be prolonged by macroeconomic uncertainty this year," said Mario Morales, vice president for Semiconductor Research at IDC.
With demand visibility low, utilization rates at frozen levels, and supplier inventories growing because of deteriorating demand targets, IDC does not expect year-over-year growth for semiconductor revenues until the second quarter of 2010.
"The semiconductor market, which is tightly correlated to GDP, will not reach an inflection point until GDP rises and consumer spending rebounds," added Brianne Lovett, research manager for Worldwide Semiconductor Market Forecaster at IDC.
"The semiconductor market will begin to stabilize at the end of 2009 and improve in 2010 with a positive growth rate. However, the market will not rise to the levels seen in 2007 and 2008, until beyond 2011."
Why Your Next Phone Will be a Smartphone
By 2013, Smartphones will double their share of all mobile phones to about 20 percent, according to the latest market study by In-Stat. Global smartphone growth this year will be strong globally, but even stronger in the evolving U.S. market.
"Strong demand is being driven by device manufacturers leveraging open OS device to re-invent the mobile phone experience," says Frank Dickson, Vice President, Mobile Internet Group.
"New and prospective smartphone buyers are drawn to new mobile applications, even though the median number of applications downloaded for all platforms -- including the Apple iPhone -- is relatively modest-below five applications per user for each platform."
This research is part of In-Stat's Cellular Devices service, which provides analysis of the worldwide cellular phone market space. In addition to reporting on current and expected future worldwide handset sales, Cellular Devices provides topical coverage of the leading industry trends.
This is accomplished by combining extensive end-user primary research with analysis of component trends, applications, major phone categories, 3G deployment and other drivers that affect devices and cell phone usage.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Smartphone security is still inadequate and is likely to be a source of problems for users and their employers, based on In-Stat's consumer survey results.
- Almost one-third of survey respondents plan to obtain a smartphone the next time they upgrade their current phone.
- Smartphones with Linux OS (including Android) will see the highest growth and the second highest volume behind Symbian. Linux OS will outpace Windows Mobile, RIM and iPhone OSX.
"Strong demand is being driven by device manufacturers leveraging open OS device to re-invent the mobile phone experience," says Frank Dickson, Vice President, Mobile Internet Group.
"New and prospective smartphone buyers are drawn to new mobile applications, even though the median number of applications downloaded for all platforms -- including the Apple iPhone -- is relatively modest-below five applications per user for each platform."
This research is part of In-Stat's Cellular Devices service, which provides analysis of the worldwide cellular phone market space. In addition to reporting on current and expected future worldwide handset sales, Cellular Devices provides topical coverage of the leading industry trends.
This is accomplished by combining extensive end-user primary research with analysis of component trends, applications, major phone categories, 3G deployment and other drivers that affect devices and cell phone usage.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- Smartphone security is still inadequate and is likely to be a source of problems for users and their employers, based on In-Stat's consumer survey results.
- Almost one-third of survey respondents plan to obtain a smartphone the next time they upgrade their current phone.
- Smartphones with Linux OS (including Android) will see the highest growth and the second highest volume behind Symbian. Linux OS will outpace Windows Mobile, RIM and iPhone OSX.
Sunday, March 08, 2009
Advances in iPod Accessory Market at CES
At the CES 2009 event, earlier this year, there was no shortage of iPod accessory makers, cell phone case manufactures and companies making add-on solutions for every gadget you can imagine.
As the proud owner of a new 4th generation Apple iPod nano -- a gift from a family member -- I was on the lookout for useful accessories that would improve my mp-3 player usage experience.
That said, two products caught my attention. The nano player is small and thin, and it looks really delicate -- it's the kind of item that would be easy to damage, especially if dropped on a hard surface. Clearly, there's lots of ways to protect this little device from harm, and I chose the Impact Series case from OtterBox.
This thin, skin-like design that's made from silicon rubber provides protection against bump and shock to your device. The nano controls and connector slot are all accessible through the case, and the inner corners are designed to dissipate impact away from your music player.
I recommend this type of defensive cover for anyone who is looking for something that protects a delicate electronic device, without adding unnecessary bulk to the design.
The earphones that are included with the iPod nano sound fine to most people, myself included, while some audiophiles believe they sound cheap and nasty. In fact, there's a lot of replacement earphones on the market, with some costing more than the actual nano player.
The smooth plastic design of the Apple earphones makes it difficult to keep them sitting on your ear canal, and as a result the sound often suffers -- plus there's the frustration of them falling off as you move around. Earphone adaptors, that slip over the plastic buds, are one solution.
I've been using the Acoustibuds earphone adaptors, from Burton Technologies, with excellent results. The extra soft silicon rubber adaptor slips over the iPod earphones and enables them to stay in place, and it feels much better as well. One big benefit I didn’t anticipate is the improved quality of the sound.
The Acoustibuds also, as I’ve discovered, enable you to lower the volume on the iPod, which in turn will help to conserve battery power for longer listening pleasure. Instead of putting your Apple earphones aside, and buying expensive replacements, try a pair of adaptors. You’ll be pleased with the improvement, and affordable price.
Saturday, March 07, 2009
Ongoing Shift to US Online Free Gaming Sites
Consumer use of free online gaming sites are more popular than ever. And, that usage could be a new upside revenue opportunity for advertisers.
Gaming web sites racked up 27 percent more unique visits and 42 percent more total playing time in December 2008 than in December 2007, according to comScore. Overall Internet traffic grew only 4 percent over the same period.
comScore's measurements highlight the ongoing shift from high-cost, console-based gaming toward free, browser-based alternatives.
In 2008 MTV Networks surveyed free online gamers regarding the types of advertising they were willing to accept in exchange for playing such games. Banner ads and advertiser-sponsored games got the highest responses, at 47 and 42 percent, respectively.
comScore also found that the total number of display ad views in the online gaming category grew 29 percent from November 2007 to November 2008, to 8.6 billion. This increase is attributed primarily to the growing number of advertising-exposed unique visitors to the category, which were up 30 percent over the same period.
The average consumer's exposure remained relatively constant at 127 ad views in November 2008. The survey also found the number of display ads per page viewed declined 17 percent.
Friday, March 06, 2009
Differences in PC and Mobile Internet Usage
ComScore reported the results of the first study of its cross-media panel of PC and mobile Internet users in the U.S., finding that light PC Internet users are 30 percent more likely than heavy PC Internet users to use their mobile devices to access Internet content.
In total, 42 million people used their mobile devices in October 2008 to access news and information content on the Internet, an increase of 57 percent from October 2007.
The study found that 15.2 percent of light PC Internet users accessed news and information on their mobile device at least once per week, compared to a lower 11.7 percent of heavy PC Internet users. For the purposes of this study, comScore defined heavy PC Internet users as those who viewed, on average, 6,701 pages in the month, and light users as those who viewed, on average, 1,104 pages in the month.
Twenty percent of PC Internet users in the cross-media panel were classified as heavy users, and accounted for 43 percent of overall page views, while 50 percent were light users and accounted for 18 percent of page views. The balance was classified as medium users.
The findings affirm that mobile Internet users comprise a substantial segment of the population, and suggest that a significant portion of these people are using mobile to supplement their at-home online media usage.
The study also found that mobile Internet users are more likely to be male (58 percent) and to be 18 to 44 years of age. Possibly reflecting this demographic skew, heavy mobile Internet users show a high engagement with Web sites that provide information that is appealing to people with more active lifestyles:
- Regional / local content
- Entertainment
- Sports information
In contrast, light mobile Internet users are heavier users of the PC to access Internet content and are heavily engaged with the following types of Internet content:
- Education
- Conversational Media
- Travel
- Business / Finance
- Retail
The study was conducted using a sample of individuals who were members of comScore's PC panel of online users and who were also participants in comScore's monthly mobile survey. The findings above represent digital media usage for the three-month average ending October 2008.
In total, 42 million people used their mobile devices in October 2008 to access news and information content on the Internet, an increase of 57 percent from October 2007.
The study found that 15.2 percent of light PC Internet users accessed news and information on their mobile device at least once per week, compared to a lower 11.7 percent of heavy PC Internet users. For the purposes of this study, comScore defined heavy PC Internet users as those who viewed, on average, 6,701 pages in the month, and light users as those who viewed, on average, 1,104 pages in the month.
Twenty percent of PC Internet users in the cross-media panel were classified as heavy users, and accounted for 43 percent of overall page views, while 50 percent were light users and accounted for 18 percent of page views. The balance was classified as medium users.
The findings affirm that mobile Internet users comprise a substantial segment of the population, and suggest that a significant portion of these people are using mobile to supplement their at-home online media usage.
The study also found that mobile Internet users are more likely to be male (58 percent) and to be 18 to 44 years of age. Possibly reflecting this demographic skew, heavy mobile Internet users show a high engagement with Web sites that provide information that is appealing to people with more active lifestyles:
- Regional / local content
- Entertainment
- Sports information
In contrast, light mobile Internet users are heavier users of the PC to access Internet content and are heavily engaged with the following types of Internet content:
- Education
- Conversational Media
- Travel
- Business / Finance
- Retail
The study was conducted using a sample of individuals who were members of comScore's PC panel of online users and who were also participants in comScore's monthly mobile survey. The findings above represent digital media usage for the three-month average ending October 2008.
Thursday, March 05, 2009
Mobile NFC Payments and Banking Market
One day the mobile phone could replace other forms of payment, by storing electronic cash and enabling convenient electronic transactions. Yet so far there's been little evidence that the consumer has embraced this new paradigm, despite the availability of mobile payment and banking services in most markets worldwide.
However, according to Informa Telecoms and Media this day is getting closer. They forecast that in 2013 almost 300 billion transactions, worth more than $860 billion, will be conducted using a mobile phone -- a twelve-fold increase in gross global transaction values in just five years.
"The mobile payments and banking market has evolved considerably over the last two years. Major industry initiatives led by the GSMA and significant commitments to the market from major financial services and telecoms leaders have changed the dynamics of this market," says John Darnbrough, Associate, Informa Telecoms & Media.
At last there is real evidence of demand for these services, some from the unlikeliest of places such as the emerging markets of Africa and Asia. The prospects for growth and the emergence of new opportunities in mobile financial services are encouraging more players to enter the market.
Informa predicts that by 2013, over 445 million mobile subscribers will be regularly using their mobile phone to purchase physical goods and services remotely. Furthermore, Informa estimates that of the total value of mobile payments and transactions in 2008 -- around$71 billion -- approximately a third was spent on purchases of mobile digital content such as ringtones, games and music tracks.
However, by 2013 over 95 percent of mobile transactions will be for physical goods and services.
Despite its promise, the mobile NFC market will be held back by the lack of availability of NFC enabled handsets and uncertainties regarding the business model and business case for mobile NFC. Nevertheless, Informa forecasts that in 2013 approximately 11 percent of all mobile handsets shipped will be NFC enabled and that over 178 million mobile subscribers will be regularly using mobile NFC phones to buy physical goods and services, such as tickets, locally at the point of sale.
Informa also forecasts that by 2013 there will be 977 million users of mobile banking services worldwide a dramatic increase from approximately 67 million at the end of 2008.
By 2013 Informa forecasts that almost 424 million consumers will be sending over $157 billion of personal funds via mobile domestically whilst a further 73 million will be sending $48 billion of funds via mobile internationally.
Informa predicts that if the key players collaborate effectively the mobile payments and banking market offers a shared annual revenue opportunity of over $10 billion in five years time. The biggest revenue opportunity is expected from mBanking services, which Informa predicts will be worth $5.5 billion in 2013.
However, according to Informa Telecoms and Media this day is getting closer. They forecast that in 2013 almost 300 billion transactions, worth more than $860 billion, will be conducted using a mobile phone -- a twelve-fold increase in gross global transaction values in just five years.
"The mobile payments and banking market has evolved considerably over the last two years. Major industry initiatives led by the GSMA and significant commitments to the market from major financial services and telecoms leaders have changed the dynamics of this market," says John Darnbrough, Associate, Informa Telecoms & Media.
At last there is real evidence of demand for these services, some from the unlikeliest of places such as the emerging markets of Africa and Asia. The prospects for growth and the emergence of new opportunities in mobile financial services are encouraging more players to enter the market.
Informa predicts that by 2013, over 445 million mobile subscribers will be regularly using their mobile phone to purchase physical goods and services remotely. Furthermore, Informa estimates that of the total value of mobile payments and transactions in 2008 -- around$71 billion -- approximately a third was spent on purchases of mobile digital content such as ringtones, games and music tracks.
However, by 2013 over 95 percent of mobile transactions will be for physical goods and services.
Despite its promise, the mobile NFC market will be held back by the lack of availability of NFC enabled handsets and uncertainties regarding the business model and business case for mobile NFC. Nevertheless, Informa forecasts that in 2013 approximately 11 percent of all mobile handsets shipped will be NFC enabled and that over 178 million mobile subscribers will be regularly using mobile NFC phones to buy physical goods and services, such as tickets, locally at the point of sale.
Informa also forecasts that by 2013 there will be 977 million users of mobile banking services worldwide a dramatic increase from approximately 67 million at the end of 2008.
By 2013 Informa forecasts that almost 424 million consumers will be sending over $157 billion of personal funds via mobile domestically whilst a further 73 million will be sending $48 billion of funds via mobile internationally.
Informa predicts that if the key players collaborate effectively the mobile payments and banking market offers a shared annual revenue opportunity of over $10 billion in five years time. The biggest revenue opportunity is expected from mBanking services, which Informa predicts will be worth $5.5 billion in 2013.
Wednesday, March 04, 2009
Blu-Ray Video Discs Starting to Mainstream
Consumers will buy in excess of 100 million Blu-ray discs (BD) across the USA, Western Europe and Japan this year, with reductions in BD player prices continuing to fuel interest in packaged HD video content, according to the latest study by Futuresource Consulting.
"In the USA, BD has moved from early adopter phase through to early majority, with the format gaining real traction in the marketplace," says Mai Hoang, Senior Market Analyst at Futuresource Consulting.
Last year in the U.S. alone, BD video retail sales increased by 320 percent to 24 million units -- and momentum will continue in 2009, with over 80 million disc sales forecast.
Although the uptake of BD in Western Europe is still at the early adopter stage, it continues to gather momentum. Consumer video retail sales reached nine million units last year, and further healthy growth is expected in 2009.
The UK is the largest market for BD in Western Europe. With sales of more than 3.5 million units in 2008, it represented over 40 percent of the West European total. BD also benefited from a number of UK television campaigns during the critical fourth quarter of 2008, considerably raising consumer awareness.
Factor in Sky's high profile approach to marketing its HD service, and to a lesser extent Freesat, and the cumulative effect has made a substantial impact upon the marketplace.
"Although 36 million Blu-ray video discs were sold worldwide last year, more than 200 million were manufactured," says Michael Boreham, Senior Consultant at Futuresource.
"A portion of the remaining discs can be accounted for by multi-disc titles and promo campaigns -- cover mounts are already starting to emerge and we're projecting much more activity over the next few years."
However, the majority is pipeline fill, where product is placed into the supply chain in readiness for the growth in hardware sales, and to enable the retailers to build their in-store displays.
BD disc sales continue to expand into all major markets and genres, although to date the business has gravitated towards new release titles. In particular, the action adventure genre dominates, appealing strongly to the young male technology adopter, which also closely matches the PS3 gaming console owner profile.
For some high profile titles, close to 25 percent of all disc sales have been on BD, while other action adventure titles consistently see BD accounting for over 15 percent of total sales.
With more than 1100 BD titles to choose from, combined with growing retail support and increased promotional activity, the rise of Blu-ray may offset rapidly declining sales of standard DVD product. By 2012, around 50 percent of U.S. and 35 percent of Western European video disc retail sale volumes will be Blu-ray.
Although movie downloads are making advances in the marketplace, mainstream adoption will be a more gradual process, with the projections showing that 12 percent of U.S. consumer expenditure on home video will originate from online in 2012, with a slightly lower proportion in Europe.
"In the USA, BD has moved from early adopter phase through to early majority, with the format gaining real traction in the marketplace," says Mai Hoang, Senior Market Analyst at Futuresource Consulting.
Last year in the U.S. alone, BD video retail sales increased by 320 percent to 24 million units -- and momentum will continue in 2009, with over 80 million disc sales forecast.
Although the uptake of BD in Western Europe is still at the early adopter stage, it continues to gather momentum. Consumer video retail sales reached nine million units last year, and further healthy growth is expected in 2009.
The UK is the largest market for BD in Western Europe. With sales of more than 3.5 million units in 2008, it represented over 40 percent of the West European total. BD also benefited from a number of UK television campaigns during the critical fourth quarter of 2008, considerably raising consumer awareness.
Factor in Sky's high profile approach to marketing its HD service, and to a lesser extent Freesat, and the cumulative effect has made a substantial impact upon the marketplace.
"Although 36 million Blu-ray video discs were sold worldwide last year, more than 200 million were manufactured," says Michael Boreham, Senior Consultant at Futuresource.
"A portion of the remaining discs can be accounted for by multi-disc titles and promo campaigns -- cover mounts are already starting to emerge and we're projecting much more activity over the next few years."
However, the majority is pipeline fill, where product is placed into the supply chain in readiness for the growth in hardware sales, and to enable the retailers to build their in-store displays.
BD disc sales continue to expand into all major markets and genres, although to date the business has gravitated towards new release titles. In particular, the action adventure genre dominates, appealing strongly to the young male technology adopter, which also closely matches the PS3 gaming console owner profile.
For some high profile titles, close to 25 percent of all disc sales have been on BD, while other action adventure titles consistently see BD accounting for over 15 percent of total sales.
With more than 1100 BD titles to choose from, combined with growing retail support and increased promotional activity, the rise of Blu-ray may offset rapidly declining sales of standard DVD product. By 2012, around 50 percent of U.S. and 35 percent of Western European video disc retail sale volumes will be Blu-ray.
Although movie downloads are making advances in the marketplace, mainstream adoption will be a more gradual process, with the projections showing that 12 percent of U.S. consumer expenditure on home video will originate from online in 2012, with a slightly lower proportion in Europe.
Tuesday, March 03, 2009
Broadband Service Provider Capex Outlook
Infonetics Research has released the fourth quarter (4Q08) edition of its Service Provider Routers and Switches report. A key indicator of recent capital expense investment decisions, and the associated market outlook.
At the tail end of a great 2008, we saw the effects of carrier cautiousness in the service provider router and switch market, as IP edge and core routers, carrier Ethernet switches, and multiservice ATM switches were all down sequentially in the fourth quarter, normally a strong quarter for this market.
The good news is that IP edge and core routers are up year-over-year and as compared to the fourth quarter of 2007, indicating the general trend is also up. Still, the down fourth quarter is a bellwether, and Infonetics expects a slight dip in the overall market in 2009 before resuming growth in 2010.
Other highlights from the Infonetics study include:
- The worldwide service provider router and switch market grew 15 percent in 2008 over 2007 to $12.8 billion, but declined 6 percent in 4Q08 over 3Q08.
- 2008 was a great year for routers, with IP edge and IP core routers up a combined 26 percent in 2008.
- Carrier Ethernet switches dipped 4 percent in 2008, as many Ethernet-configured and -priced edge routers were purchased for Ethernet access transport applications rather than CES products.
- Multiservice ATM switches continued their expected decline in 2008, dropping below $1 billion for the first time in many years, with their only staying power provided by mobile backhaul networks.
- Sales of service provider routers and switches varied widely region to region in 4Q08, with strong sales in Central and Latin America, led by Cisco, helping to offset declines in Asia-Pacific, EMEA, and North America.
- For the year, Cisco maintains its strong leadership in the combined IP edge router and IP core router segments, although Juniper, Alcatel-Lucent, Huawei, Ericsson-Redback and Tellabs all gained revenue market share in 2008.
At the tail end of a great 2008, we saw the effects of carrier cautiousness in the service provider router and switch market, as IP edge and core routers, carrier Ethernet switches, and multiservice ATM switches were all down sequentially in the fourth quarter, normally a strong quarter for this market.
The good news is that IP edge and core routers are up year-over-year and as compared to the fourth quarter of 2007, indicating the general trend is also up. Still, the down fourth quarter is a bellwether, and Infonetics expects a slight dip in the overall market in 2009 before resuming growth in 2010.
Other highlights from the Infonetics study include:
- The worldwide service provider router and switch market grew 15 percent in 2008 over 2007 to $12.8 billion, but declined 6 percent in 4Q08 over 3Q08.
- 2008 was a great year for routers, with IP edge and IP core routers up a combined 26 percent in 2008.
- Carrier Ethernet switches dipped 4 percent in 2008, as many Ethernet-configured and -priced edge routers were purchased for Ethernet access transport applications rather than CES products.
- Multiservice ATM switches continued their expected decline in 2008, dropping below $1 billion for the first time in many years, with their only staying power provided by mobile backhaul networks.
- Sales of service provider routers and switches varied widely region to region in 4Q08, with strong sales in Central and Latin America, led by Cisco, helping to offset declines in Asia-Pacific, EMEA, and North America.
- For the year, Cisco maintains its strong leadership in the combined IP edge router and IP core router segments, although Juniper, Alcatel-Lucent, Huawei, Ericsson-Redback and Tellabs all gained revenue market share in 2008.
Monday, March 02, 2009
WiMAX Leads as LTE Trails in the 4G Race
Mobile WiMAX will outpace LTE based wireless broadband networks over the next few years due to its head start on deployments, according to the latest market study by In-Stat.
Mobile WiMAX already has commercial deployments, while LTE won't be commercially available until late 2009 -- or even later. However In-Stat believes WiMAX and LTE will take very different paths.
"Most of the operators looking to deploy WiMAX come to it from the fixed network space. These operators are looking to use WiMAX as an enhanced DSL service. Enhanced DSL will combine both the fixed broadband service with some form of nomadic coverage," says Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst.
Most of the early operators supporting LTE come from the mobile space. These operators want to use LTE to increase capacity and peak rates on their existing mobile networks.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- HSPA may turn into 802.16e WiMAX's true competitor, with HSPA Evolved allowing WCDMA operators to delay deploying LTE.
- Verizon is at the forefront with LTE, most operators will not deploy until 2011 or 2012.
- In-Stat expects LTE will have 23.1 million subscriptions in 2013, growing from about 176 thousand in 2010.
- Nearly 82 million mobile PCs with WiMax will ship in 2013.
Mobile WiMAX already has commercial deployments, while LTE won't be commercially available until late 2009 -- or even later. However In-Stat believes WiMAX and LTE will take very different paths.
"Most of the operators looking to deploy WiMAX come to it from the fixed network space. These operators are looking to use WiMAX as an enhanced DSL service. Enhanced DSL will combine both the fixed broadband service with some form of nomadic coverage," says Daryl Schoolar, In-Stat analyst.
Most of the early operators supporting LTE come from the mobile space. These operators want to use LTE to increase capacity and peak rates on their existing mobile networks.
In-Stat's market study found the following:
- HSPA may turn into 802.16e WiMAX's true competitor, with HSPA Evolved allowing WCDMA operators to delay deploying LTE.
- Verizon is at the forefront with LTE, most operators will not deploy until 2011 or 2012.
- In-Stat expects LTE will have 23.1 million subscriptions in 2013, growing from about 176 thousand in 2010.
- Nearly 82 million mobile PCs with WiMax will ship in 2013.
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